Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 201423
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
Updated the forecast to get rid of patchy morning fog wording. The
rest of the forecast looks on track with mostly sunny skies and
highs ranging from the mid 80s to 90 degrees this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
An early morning analysis showed upper level ridging across much of
the southern US while the fast, zonal flow remained confined to the
northern US. At the surface, high pressure was sprawled across the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Locally, readings varied from the
low to upper 60s. IR satellite showed convective debris clouds
spilling across Indiana and northern Kentucky from storms last
evening over Missouri. There were pockets of fog, some dense, across
central and southern Kentucky and was confined mainly to the low-
lying sheltered valley locations.
For today, expect a dry and unseasonably warm day with high
temperatures topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. Plan on
east/northeast winds under 10 mph with mostly sunny skies. Dry
weather will continue tonight with lows falling into the low/mid
60s. Winds should stay up at the surface and aloft enough to prevent
widespread fog though the typical sheltered, river valley locations
may see fog form overnight.
More of the same weather can be expected for Wednesday, dry with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with generally clear skies.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be the main
weather highlights through the long term, continuing the dry weather
period for the remainder of the work week and into this upcoming
Daytime highs will more characteristic of July or August normals
with readings topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. The typical
warm spots and urban centers may overachieve and reach the low 90s a
few afternoons. Morning lows will generally be in the 60s each
morning, a bit more muggy by late in the week and this weekend as
PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range.
It`s not until early next week that the forecast models begin to
show hints of a pattern change as a northwest US trough advances
eastward. A cold front may drop toward the region Monday night or
Tuesday, bringing the first chance of measurable rain to the area in
this forecast. This system may be moisture limited so precipitation
chances were kept in the 20-30 percent range though. If that front
clears the region, temperatures may trend toward more climatological
values by the middle of next week.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions at the TAF
sites today. We`ll continue to see a little bit of high cirrus from
left over convective cluster in MO this morning, but it should fade
by mid morning. A scattered diurnally Cu field will develop later
this morning with light northeasterly winds expected throughout the