Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Warm, moist, and boundary-rich air mass is in place across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. Strongest convection in central Kentucky is
along and just south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways,
where we have seen some training and heavy enough rainfall amounts
to warrant a couple of Flood Advisories. An older boundary just
north of there has focused isolated and weak showers, but provided
just enough spin for a very well-documented funnel cloud near
Winchester this afternoon. No damage has been reported, but with
showers continuing along that boundary, a Special Weather Statement
has been issued for potential additional funnel clouds across the
Bluegrass this afternoon.

Expect a diminishing trend into the evening as the showers over
south-central Kentucky continue to pull eastward. May include a pre-
1st period to account for the higher precip chances the remainder of
the afternoon.

After a lull this evening, the next wave riding ENE across the
Tennessee Valley will cause POPs to ramp up after midnight, with
high-end chances returning to south-central KY by daybreak. Same
trend will continue through the day on Friday, with POPs tapered
from 50 over south-central Kentucky down to 30 over southern
Indiana. No organized SVR is anticipated, but anywhere that a
boundary manages to focus training cells, heavy rainfall and
flooding will be in play. Again the convection will be fueled by the
heat of the day, and largely dissipate in the evening. Clouds and
precip will heavily modulate our temps, so will have limited diurnal
ranges with temps running below climo by day and above by night.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

...Strong Storms Possible Late Saturday and Early Sunday Followed By
Much Cooler Conditions Next Week...

Amplifying trof will dig into the central US on Saturday, driving a
long-awaited cold front into the Ohio Valley on Saturday night. Will
ramp up POPs through the day, with numerous T-storms affecting most
of the area during the night. Severe potential is limited due to
nocturnal timing, and the stronger dynamical forcing will pass to
our north. Agree with SPC holding the Day 3 Marginal to our north
and west, but still could see gusty winds with a few of the stronger

Precip should exit on Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure
settles into the Ohio Valley to bring our first real taste of fall
temps. Expect temps to run a solid 10 degrees below climo Sunday
through at least Monday night, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s
in many locations. Gradual recovery in temps will begin Tuesday as
the upper flow starts to flatten out, but we`ll stay below normal
with pleasantly low humidity.

A more unsettled pattern will take shape for the latter half of the
week, as the ridging retreats east and gives way to deepening return
flow over the Mississippi Valley. Will see rain chances returning to
the Ohio Valley Wed night/Thu, with near normal temps and more
typical summertime humidity.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Seeing some lower cigs pops up from time to time across the region
early this morning. Should see the coverage expand more over the
next few hours, with better chances for IFR conditions at LEX/BWG
and low end MVFR at SDF. Cannot rule out a stray shower overnight
bringing lower vsby as well. Stratus should lift slowly/break up by
late morning hours. The best coverage of storms this afternoon
should stay across southern KY, but again cannot rule out a stray
storm at the northern terminals.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
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