Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Isolated to scattered showers continue along and north of the Ohio
River this afternoon. Some thunderstorms are expected to develop as
the region destabilizes this afternoon. AMDAR soundings show a
decent cap aloft, but NAM soundings do show this eroding over
southern IN over the next few hours. Given this and the axis of
instability that has developed near the front, a few strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon and early
evening across southern IN and portions of north central KY. Gusty
winds and large hail would be the threats with the strongest storms.

As a surface low approaches tonight, the frontal boundary should
lift more to the north bringing a brief break to the showers and
storms. However, they will move back into southern IN after
midnight. Soundings show some decent capping in place overnight.
Therefore, there could be some elevated storms overnight with
lightning being the main threat. A few showers and storms may
develop near the Lake Cumberland region early tomorrow morning as

As the surface low tracks to the northeast tomorrow, the trailing
cold front will swing through. Decent shear values and instability
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range from mid day tomorrow through the
afternoon may lead to another round of strong to marginally severe
storms with damaging winds and large hail. The best chance for
stronger storms looks to be east of the I-65 corridor. Showers and
storms will continue to push off to the east through tomorrow night,
with most regions dry by Friday morning.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight ahead of the cold front with
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temps tomorrow will be tricky
with the front moving through during the day. Most of southern IN
may not make it out of the 60s, while temps look to drop in the
afternoon across central KY. Lows tomorrow night will be much
cooler, dropping into the 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A sharp upper trough will move east of the region early Friday
morning. This will bring an end to the precipitation. Cooler air
will continue to advect in. With this, temperatures on Friday look
to top out in the upper 50s to around 60s. Lows on Saturday morning
will be quite chilly with some of the colder and sheltered locations
dropping into the upper to possibly mid 30s. Some patchy frost will
be a possibility in those locations.

High pressure will build in into the weekend with ridging aloft
building in through the beginning of the next work week. Dry weather
is expected through the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will rise back into the low 70s.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Main band of the best precip chances is remaining along and north of
the Ohio so far today, so have backed off on chances for BWG/LEX
until later in the period. Ceilings will crash in the morning
tomorrow, as a cold front comes through the region. They may briefly
dip to IFR levels late at SDF and just at the end of the period for
BWG/LEX. Winds will shift to northwesterly late as well.




Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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