Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291254
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
854 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 848 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Several areas in southern Indiana have picked up tremendous amounts
of rainfall since last night, with some isolated areas seeing as
much as 7 to 8 inches of rainfall. This has led to numerous reports
of flooding and resulted in road closures and even some water
rescues across Dubois County. Showers and thunderstorms along and
north of a warm front/outflow boundary near the IN/KY border are
still ongoing this morning, and will only make flooding issues
worse. The good news is that high-res models show the warm front
lifting north over the next few hours, and precipitation coverage
dropping quickly by the afternoon hours to allow some drying. Still
expecting a hot and muggy afternoon for most areas, with record to
near record high temperatures possible.


Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The first wave of storms has moved off to the east and dissipated
this morning. However, another round of storms is moving into
southern IN. These will bring additional torrential rainfall and
continuous lightning. They could worsen or renew flooding in some
locations. In addition, these storms are tall enough to produce some
hail. They will continue to work their way across southern IN and
portions of north central KY this morning.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Flash Flooding Continuing Early This Morning...

The main concern for early this morning will be the continuing flash
flood threat across portions of southern IN and north central KY. As
of 3 AM thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall were training across
the counties on either side of the Ohio River. Numerous reports of
flooding with roads closed and a few cars stranded with rescues have
been received this morning. The main area of rain has shifted to
just south of where current flash flood warnings currently are, so
more warnings may be warranted this morning. However, back to the
west thunderstorms with torrential rainfall are becoming more
scattered and less continuous, so the threat should diminish
somewhat as we head towards dawn.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the morning hours after
sunrise, but the area of rain is expected to lift to the north as we
head towards mid day. Skies will become partly cloudy today to
mostly sunny. We will be solidly in the warm sector today with
continuing southerly winds and warm air advection. High temperatures
will rise into the mid to upper 80s today. Soundings do show plenty
of instability this afternoon, but there will be a bit of a cap and
little trigger in the warm sector so will keep the forecast mainly
dry today except closer to the warm front over portions of southern
IN. With the high instability, if any storms do develop, they could
become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail.

Tonight will be similar to this afternoon with just a small chance
for storms in southern IN. Low temps will again be on the warm side
only dropping into the upper 60s to around 70.

For Sunday, a low pressure system will start to eject northeast out
of the Plains. A line of showers and storms will develop to our west
ahead of the cold front associated with this system. These storms
will start to move into areas west of I-65 late in the afternoon.
Heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Another Round of Heavy Rain and Some Severe Potential Late
Sunday...

Showers and storms ahead of a cold front associated with a low
pressure system will continue to cross the region on Sunday evening
into the overnight hours. Soundings do show some instability and
strong wind shear and helicity. However, they are also very
saturated. Therefore some strong storms will be possible with this
system with damaging winds. Very heavy rainfall will be possible as
well so flash flooding may again be a concern. These storms should
be out of the area by mid day on Monday.

We will have a period of dry and cooler weather Monday night through
Tuesday evening. A deepening trough will then approach from the west
and move through. This looks to become a cutoff low across the
Tennessee Valley through the end of the work week. Rain and a few
thunderstorms will be possible off and on from Wednesday through the
end of the week with this system. It will also bring much cooler
temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in 40s for the end of
the week.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Wavy and nearly stationary warm front will serve as a focus for
convective development this morning.  This front is expected to lift
northward through the day shifting the heavy rainfall further north
of region.  This should result in improving conditions at the
terminals throughout the day.

KBWG:  VFR conditions are expected through the period.  Only concern
at KBWG will be gusty southwest winds today.  Look for winds of 12-
14kts with gusts up to 24-26kts at times.

KSDF:  Thunderstorms will likely impact the terminal very early in
the TAF period this morning.  A period of MVFR to VFR conditions due
to TSRA are expected this morning mainly through 29/14Z.  After
that, we expect skies to scour out a bit and gusty southwest winds
to pick up.  Southwest winds of 13-15kts with gusts up to 25kts will
be possible throughout the day before subsiding near sunset.

KLEX: Some scattered showers will be possible over at KLEX, but the
bulk of the morning activity looks to stay generally north of the
terminal.  For now, plan on going with a dry, but windy forecast for
the terminal today. Gusty southwest winds of 13-15kts with gusts up
to 25kts will be possible before subsiding by sunset.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 830 AM EST Fri Apr 28 2017

Temperature and rainfall records for the weekend:

            4/29 Warm L   4/29 Record H   4/30 Warm L  4/30 Record H
Louisville   67 (1951)      89 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1894)
Lexington    67 (1899)      86 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1942)
Bowling G.   67 (1899)      91 (1894)      68 (1899)    92 (1942*)
Frankfort    63 (1899)      89 (1914)      66 (1910)    91 (1942)

            4/29 Rainfall 4/30 Rainfall
Louisville   2.02" (1927)   2.37" (1983)
Lexington    1.31" (2014)   3.21" (1909)
Bowling G.   2.40" (1912)   3.00" (1911)
Frankfort    2.20" (2002)   2.62" (1909)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>025-029>038.

&&

$$

Update...DM
Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
Aviation.....MJ
Climate......RJS



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