Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 231022
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
Pleasant weather to continue this period, outside of some morning
river/valley fog. Area webcams not indicating any issues yet, but
GOES fog product shows some river valleys filling up in Eastern KY
this hour. High pressure will remain to our northeast, giving us
a light northeasterly wind during the day. Low-level thickness
increases indicate highs today should be 2-5 degrees warmer than
Monday. Thus have most places getting into the lower 70s today. The
warmer start to the evening will mean lows similarly warmer for
Wednesday morning. Continued warming on Wednesday will mean highs in
the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
Wednesday Night - Sunday...
Will continue to call for a quiet period of weather through the
weekend as surface high pressure and a general upper ridge hold over
the area. There will be a couple of weak upper lows meandering about
through the weak upper flow, however these features will be moisture
starved and of no concern. Temperatures during this period will be
characterized by highs around 80, and lows mostly in the mid and
upper 50s. The one exception will be Wednesday night where lows will
be more confined to the lower 50s.
Sunday Night - Monday...
Will continue to mention rain chances for the Sunday night into
Monday time frame mainly across southern and central KY as the upper
ridge breaks down, and a vertically stacked upper low slowly lifts
northeastward to the mid Mississippi River Valley from the southern
Plains. This feature looks to draw deeper moisture up ahead of it,
overspreading our CWA from SW to NE Sunday night into Monday. Will
keep mention in the low chance range for now due to some model
uncertainty. The ECMWF has shown the most consistency, although
continues to show a slightly slower trend with the latest 00z run.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected this period. A
light northeasterly wind will return during the day as high
pressure remains to our northeast.