Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 171711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1211 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Under full sunshine this morning we are warming up nicely. With SDF
just having hit 60 degrees, 70 degrees today is not out of the
question. Will bet towards upper 60s for now, but did send out a
zone update raising highs a category for most locations this
afternoon. Also lowered dewpoints a little, given current
observations and some potential to mix down further dry air this
afternoon. May have to issue further updates later for both temp and
dewpoint, but will watch trends for that.

.Short Term (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warm and sunny Friday is in store for the region with upper level
ridging in place and a strong southerly flow.  Temps should easily
warm into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.  Southwest winds will
be breezy.

Tonight we`ll see an increase in clouds from SW to NE ahead of the
next weather system.  Lows will range through the low to mid 40s
with the coolest locations over southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass.

For Saturday, a quick moving upper low will bringing scattered,
light rain showers to the area.  With clouds and some rain, temps
should be limited to the mid 50s to low 60s for highs.

.Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Near Record Warmth on the Way...

Light rain showers from the Sat system should end Sat evening with
upper level ridging building back into the region for Sunday.  With
skies becoming only partly cloudy early in the day, temps on Sunday
should rebound well into the 60s.  Monday ridging will strengthen
bringing the warmest day in the 7 day forecast.  Highs on Mon should
top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s which is 15-20 degrees above
normal!

Tuesday onward, low chances for precipitation will return.  A weak
frontal boundary over the region will provide a focus for showers
Tue/Wed/Thu before a stronger cold front brings showers and
potentially some t-storms to the region on Fri.

Temperatures will remain mild throughout the week ahead of the
strong cold front progged for Fri.  In fact, it is possible that
some records could be challenged.  Check the climate discussion
below to see record highs and warm lows for this coming week.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Plan on VFR conditions through the period. Southwest winds will
remain gusty to near 20 kts through late afternoon then drop to 5
kts or less this evening. Expect increasing high clouds tonight
ahead of a weather system coming from the Gulf Coast. Light rain
showers are possible tomorrow, mainly after 18z, and overall
shouldn`t result in any aviation restrictions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT
Climate........RJS



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