Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 231835
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
235 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Surface analysis reveals a 1008mb low over northwestern Georgia with
a cold front draped down into the Gulf of Mexico. A look upstairs
near 500mb reveals a low close to the TN/AL/MS border. Visible
satellite loops show a nice "swirl" in the clouds over the lower
Tennessee valley associated with the system.
In our neck of the woods, persistent clouds and precipitation
associated with wrap-around moisture from the upper level low have
resulted in a soggy Sunday for south-central Kentucky. North-central
Kentucky and southern Indiana have remained mostly dry thanks to
drier air advecting into the lower levels of the atmosphere, but mid
to high level clouds have blocked out the sun for most folks.
We should see the system and its precipitation shield gradually dig
into the southeastern US this afternoon and evening. This will allow
some clearing and drying generally from northwest to southeast. Most
folks should be rain free by Monday morning. The cloud forecast, on
the other hand, looks to be a bit more complicated. While the models
show some clearing in southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky
late this afternoon and evening, it appears some low to mid level
moisture will advect back into the area Monday morning and keep the
region mostly cloudy by Monday afternoon. Like today, the gradient
between clouds/clear skies will be sharp on Monday and will have an
impact on the high temperatures.
Clouds could still linger into Monday night, but should start to see
them dissipate by sunrise Tuesday morning. Lows will generally be
mild in the low 50s.
.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Upper level ridging will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
warm temperatures and dry conditions to southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Latest 12z guidance still shows cold frontal passage
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, with a line of showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. As previous discussions
have mentioned, a lack of instability should keep thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front sub-severe, despite modest low level
moisture and shear profiles. Showers and thunderstorms could linger
through Thursday morning into the early afternoon.
Cool-down from cold front will be short lived, as a warm front is
progged to move through and north of the region Friday. Long range
models show a broad band of showers and thunderstorms associated
with the warm frontal passage continuing through Saturday morning.
Despite some minor differences, long range models are in decent
agreement to keep a good portion of the weekend mostly dry, but very
warm, with some models showing high temperatures near 90 degrees.
Won`t go quite that warm in the grids with temperatures, but do
expect above normal temperatures as well as isolated to scattered
thunderstorms during this period.
.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Upper low over southwestern TN is forecast to sag southeastward into
southern Georgia over the upcoming TAF period. A steady stream of
moisture will continue to lift northward into KY keeping skies
mostly cloudy in areas along and south of the Ohio River. The upper
low will likely bring MVFR cigs and vsbys to KBWG this afternoon
with occasional rain showers. MVFR cigs are also likely at KLEX as
well. Further northwest at KSDF, the terminal will remain on the
northwestern edge of the moisture, so a high ceiling is likely to
persist into the evening hours. Northeast winds of 10-13kts with
occasional gusts up to 20kts will be seen through the afternoon
For tonight, short term models suggests that skies will clear slowly
from the northwest. Best chances of clearing are at KSDF given its
more northerly location. MVFR ceilings are likely to persist at
KLEX and KBWG until Monday afternoon as the upper level system moves
away from the region.