Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 272305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Multiple rounds of convection are still expected this evening and
into the overnight hours.  The latest models indicate each round
should continue to sink southward as the night wears on.  Still the
models have been too quick to push convection southward and
convection has been running mostly west-east along the best
instability gradient.  So overall the forecast trends towards models
but not as quickly with overall convection moving southward.  There
are many convective boundaries across the area currently as well
which complicates movement of individual storms and storm complexes.

Overall feel the worst severe threat for the next few hours will be
south of a line from Dubois County, IN to Lincoln County, KY. This
area still has the best instability and dcape.  Flash Flooding will
be a concern as well as some areas see multiple t-storms this
evening and overnight.

Severe Watch #276 is in effect through 10 pm edt tonight with a PDS
Severe Watch #280 to highlight the area over south central KY of
best chances for concentrated damaging winds.  Flash flood watch
remains in effect for much of central KY through Sunday.


.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...Severe Weather Chances Continue Through Sunday...

For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. The capping from this morning has
eroded and the region has become rather unstable with 3000+ J/kg of
SBCAPE across central KY and just a bit less across southern IN.
DCAPE values are highest across north central KY and southern IN
while shear is highest across south central KY. Storms are expected
to continue to develop in this environment through the afternoon and
into the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats this afternoon. Lightning could also be a concern for anyone
participating in outdoor activities as well as very heavy rainfall.

The scattered storms from this afternoon and evening should diminish
and push off to the east this evening. The attention then turns to
the overnight hours and the MCS that will be moving out of MO. The
models are still struggling with the evolution and eventual path of
this system as well as how strong it will be by the time it nears
the forecast area. The area most likely to see damaging winds looks
to be southwest central KY. The storms should begin to move into the
forecast area around midnight or just after and push eastward
through the overnight hours. They will begin to weaken as they move
in, and become more scattered in nature, particularly across north
central KY and southern IN. The main threat overnight will be
damaging wind gusts. However, heavy rain could also lead to some
localized instances of flooding as well, so will keep the Flash
Flood Watch going.

Storms will be moving out during the morning hours on Sunday. There
should then be a relative lull in the precipitation through the
afternoon in the wake of the overnight system. The severe potential
for late Sunday afternoon/evening is somewhat dependent on how the
atmosphere recovers. Models do show moderate instability developing
again during the afternoon. Most of the mesoscale models show storms
developing again late afternoon into the evening hours across
southern IN as a cold front moves in. These storms do have the
potential to become strong to severe if the instability does develop
with strong winds and hail possible. However, this is somewhat
conditional. These storms should move through during the evening
into the early overnight hours. We will then dry out towards dawn on

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Memorial Day will be dry with clouds clearing out during the day.
Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A frontal
boundary will work into the region Monday evening. A few models try
to develop some showers along this boundary, but they look to dry up
as they move into southern IN, so have kept the forecast dry for now.

A trough will set up across the eastern CONUS and remain in place
through much of the week. In addition, there will be a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary that may be in the vicinity as well.
Weak disturbances rotating through the upper level flow will bring
off and on chances for showers and storms through the week. However,
it will certainly not be a washout all week. High temps through the
week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.


.Aviation...(0Z TAF Update)
Issued at 645 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Confidence remains low as far as the details of this forecast, as
the cap has eroded and multiple boundaries have fired across central
Kentucky. SDF and LEX both have TS in the vicinity, and convection
is getting more active near BWG within the last hr as well.
Prevailing ceilings have been VFR, and even in thunderstorms we have
yet to see MVFR ceilings. Storms through the evening will be handled
with TEMPO groups, but will include variable and gusty winds and
take vis down to borderline MVFR/IFR.

After midnight the question becomes where the severe bow echo will
track. Boundaries that are guiding ongoing convection are aligned to
steer the bow echo farther south than previously advertised, so will
hit the winds hardest in BWG with 40 kt gusts included in the TEMPO
for thunderstorms. At SDF and LEX we`ll have a prolonged period of
VCTS/CB, with MVFR ceilings just above fuel-alternate around
daybreak Sunday.

Cold front approaches late Sunday, but impacts very much dependent
on how tonight`s storms modify the environment, and how quickly the
atmosphere can reload. Believe it will take much of the day to
destabilize, even with many boundaries in the area. Will bring VCTS
into SDF late in the day, as the planning period will encompass more
of that chance. However it should stay north and west of BWG and LEX
until very late in the valid TAF period. Morning MVFR ceilings will
recover to VFR quickly at SDF and LEX, but linger into early
afternoon at BWG.


KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ027>030-034>036-



Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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