Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 141723
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014
Forecast appears on track, save for the cirrus being a little thick.
This patch over our region should move east quickly and leave us
mostly sunny the rest of the day. Had a cool start to the day, with
almost all locations reaching the 40s. Cool spot was 41 degrees at
Corners and at the Cynthiana mesonet site. Highs today should be in
the low to mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014
A zonal flow aloft is expected over the next several days downstream
of a 500mb ridge that will build early Monday over the Pacific
Northwest. As is commonly the case by mid-September, Gulf moisture
is confined south of the Commonwealth over the Tennessee Valley and
the Gulf States.
Aside from a few high cirrus, mostly clear skies are expected across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky through mid-day Monday. Some
low broken strato-cu currently over southeastern Kentucky may advect
westwards towards the Lake Cumberland Region early this morning,
bringing some occasional low cloudiness. However, the western edge
of these clouds show some sign of dissipating. Even if clouds hang
around towards dawn, they will dissipate by mid morning.
High pressure now over Indiana and Ohio will bring light north to
northeast winds of around 5 mph this afternoon. Winds will become
calm overnight through Monday morning. Highs today will range from
the lower to mid 70s, falling into the lower to mid 50s Monday
A 500mb trough will scoot across the Great Lakes Monday afternoon.
In its wake, a decaying cold front will slide south of the Ohio
River late Monday. Clouds may increase a bit late Monday afternoon,
but the bulk of the day will stay mostly clear. Temperatures will
warm several degrees Monday, topping out in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014
A weakening cold front will move through the area Mon night
providing the best chance for precipitation over the next 7 days.
However, even these chances will be meager at best (20-30%).
Sfc high pressure will build into the region behind the front
providing for a dry work week. Temperatures will remain fairly
steady Tues-Thurs in the low to mid 70s for highs and upper 40s and
50s for lows. Wed morning looks to be the coldest morning in the
long term period and we could potentially see more upper 40s than
currently forecast depending on the post-frontal airmass. For now
will go with lows in the 48-55 degree range and watch model trends.
Upper level ridging will build over the region Fri/Sat causing a
warm up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Another upper trough and
cold front look to impact the area sometime between Sat night-Mon
potentially bringing isld-sct showers/storms to the region.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014
High pressure will continue to dominate the northeast U.S. this
period, bringing VFR conditions to our terminals. The only hitch may
be some light fog towards daybreak Monday over KBWG.