Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 060713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

Surface high pressure sliding from the Ozarks to the Mississippi
Delta, and ridging northeastward into the Ohio Valley, will give us
mostly dry and pleasant weather today and tonight. Highs today will
generally be around 70 with a 5 to 15 mph northwest breeze. Clouds
will increase tonight and there could even be a stray sprinkle or
shower towards dawn north through east of Louisville. Lows will be
around 50.

On Saturday a cold front will approach from the north. A 5H vort is
expected to come in from the northwest and help spark showers/storms
along the front in the afternoon. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity should be relegated primarily to southern Indiana,
remaining mostly north of Interstate 64 through 7pm. There will be a
narrow window late Saturday afternoon in southern Indiana for a
strong storm or two.

Winds Saturday will come in from the WSW and should become quite
gusty by afternoon, possibly gusting into the 25 to 30 mph range.
It will be warm, though, with high temperatures around 80.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

A cold front will sink southward into the region Saturday night,
accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front will
become weak and more diffuse on Sunday but will still help to spark
some scattered convection.

Sunday night low pressure will move eastward from the lee of the
Rockies into the Kansas plains, pulling the weak surface front back
north as a warm front with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible. Monday the warm front will be well north of the region
with the Plains low still off to the west, placing us in the warm
sector of the system. Will keep PoPs low.

Monday night the low will lift northeast into the Midwest.
Isentropic lift will increase over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
with a strengthening low level jet from the Arklatex to the OV. Deep
southwest flow will bring Gulf moisture northward resulting in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

We will remain in this pattern for much of the rest of the week as
upper ridging holds over the southeast U.S. and the main cyclone
track stays to our north and west. As a result we will have
occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the week.

There is a general one to two inches of rain in the seven-day
forecast, though the convective nature of the precipitation will
lead to unevenly distributed amounts across the area.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

NNW flow will continue across Kentucky as low pressure becomes
vertically stacked along the mid-Atlantic coast, and high pressure
over the Plains settles along the western Gulf coast. Low clouds
have pushed south and east of the area, and lingering mid-level
clouds should continue to scatter out, so will not carry any
ceilings overnight.

Only interruption to a VFR night would be in LEX, where vis is
already trying to drop into the 8-9SM range and temp/dewpoint
spreads are quite small. Legacy models are not hitting anything, but
hi-res data shows some low-level moisture, and GFS LAMP shows MVFR
visibilities for a time around daybreak. Even with the wind staying
up around 4-5 kt, conditional climatology also supports lower vis,
so will carry a TEMPO MVFR.

Beyond Friday morning, expect VFR conditions with diurnally driven
cu and winds gusting just over 15 kt. Toward the end of the TAF
period, a weak impulse could spark an increase in low clouds and a
few showers toward daybreak Saturday, but expect it to remain north
and east of SDF, and beyond the time range of the LEX TAF.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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