Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 270522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Adjusted near term dewpoint grids to reflect current conditions.
Winds have relaxed somewhat with dewpoint bumps noted across the
region. A few observations are showing less than a mile of
visibility. Have beefed up fog wording in the grids with some patchy
dense fog possible across south-central KY into portions of the
Bluegrass where dry air push will be last seen. Some of the near-
term, hi-res models are showing blankets of dense fog, so will need
to watch this closely the next few hours.

Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Have updated the forecast to include patchy advection fog overnight
near lakes and rivers, to account for much cooler air moving in over
the warm water that has seen little cool down for the past several
weeks. No other changes for now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Rain showers continue to move east over portions of east central and
south central KY this afternoon.  They should clear the area by
early this evening.  An area of clouds behind the rain looks to
clear the area by late evening with most of the overnight hours
expected to be mostly clear.  With clearing skies in the post-
frontal airmass, we should see a good drop in temps with lows in the
mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

Sfc high pressure and a broad upper trough will dominate the region
for Tues resulting in mostly sunny skies and very fall-like
temperatures.  Highs will top out in the lower 70s Tues afternoon
with lows Tues night in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Wednesday - Saturday...

An upper low will wobble down into the Ohio Valley from the upper
Midwest bringing cool and rainy conditions for the second half of
the week.  Rain chances will be maximized each afternoon/early
evening with better instability in the region.  Vorticity lobes
rotating around the upper low will help spark convection.

High temperatures will be on a downhill trend through Thu/Fri. With
the upper low wobbling very near or right over KY both days, expect
highs to be limited to the 60s both Thu/Fri...potentially colder.
Low temps should hold in the upper 40s/lower 50s each night
depending on cloud cover.

Sunday - Monday...

By early next week, models indicate the upper low will shift NNE out
of the region.  With this shift, a warm up in temps can be expected
as well as dry conditions.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Clear skies, light or calm winds, and a good inversion over the
region will promote fog production tonight.  BWG has already seen
some light br this evening.  Think that BWG should see MVFR/IFR
conditions for the next 2-3 hrs and then decrease to IFR/LIFR
conditions between 9-13Z.  SDF/LEX should see fog as well but kept
vsbys at MVFR for these TAF sites according to the latest MOS


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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