Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

The pattern early this morning features a sharp trough over much of
the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface cold front sits just north
of the Ohio River. Deep moisture continues to reside south of the
frontal boundary beneath the entrance region of an upper jet.
Moisture transport is also being aided by a 25-30 knot low level jet
across southern KY. As a result, still seeing widespread showers
(and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) across south central KY. Not
expecting the cold front to get a good push until later this morning
when a shortwave embedded within the mean trough pushes through.
Until then, will mention numerous to widespread showers across the
south, winding down around midday into the early afternoon.
Elsewhere, southern IN and northern KY should stay rain free as
subsident and drier air works in behind the front. Look for highs
today in the upper 70s to around 80.

We`ll be dry tonight and Monday as high pressure holds at the
surface and aloft. Low temperatures tonight will have a crisp feel
as the mercury drops into the upper 50s in most spots. Highs Monday
should be a degree or two warmer than today, putting most spots
right around 80.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Monday Night - Tuesday Night...

High pressure at the surface aloft will control the pattern early
this week. This will lead to a dry stretch with more comfortable
humidity levels as dew points remain in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Monday night lows will drop to either side of 60 degrees, with highs
on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s. A slight increase in low level
moisture, winds and mid/upper sky cover will yield a milder night on
Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s.

Wednesday - Friday...

Upper ridge will try to hold on over the Ohio River Valley from mid
to late week as a trough slides across the northern Plains into the
northern Great Lakes. A trailing weak cold front will try to
approach the region by Thursday, bringing low chances of a shower or
storm into the region late Wednesday through Friday. Chances will be
confined to southern IN Wed/Wed. Night, everywhere Thursday, and
mainly across KY on Friday. Overall, moisture along this front is
weak so will only go with very low chances, mainly diurnally driven.

Wednesday and Thursday highs should be in the mid to upper 80s, with
a slight cool down across our NW on Friday behind the front. Look
for low 80s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows should be in the low 70s
Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Friday Night - Saturday...

We`ll be in a post-frontal dry airmass to start the weekend with
surface high pressure in place. We`ll see lows back in the mid 60s
Friday night, with highs in the mid 80s Saturday.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Do have some IFR cigs in the LEX/GLW corridor, with issue being more
vsby at BWG in rain. This will continue to be a problem for a few
more hours before drier air coming in on northwest and west winds to
improve conditions at all sites by lunchtime. Winds will become more
variable tonight with clearing skies.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
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