Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1245 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The latest mesoscale model runs have consistently been keeping
things dry across southern IN. Have therefore removed pops from the
forecast across that area. Pops were also adjusted a bit across
south central KY where isolated showers and storms still look
possible this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be mainly a hot and
muggy afternoon across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

With strong ridging in place, our area continues to remain dry early
this morning.  Ongoing showers/storms continue just to our north
along the periphery of the ridge. With strong ridging expected to
continue throughout the day, think that our region will remain
mostly dry.  There`s only a very small chance (20%) for convection
this afternoon/early evening along and north of the Ohio River
closer to the ridge periphery where lesser capping exists and close
to the KY/TN border where some of the short term models have a weak
disturbance progged which may provide just enough forcing to break
the cap for a few afternoon/evening showers/storms.

The next decent shot for showers/storms looks to come Fri morning
mainly along and west of I-65.  Short range models indicate that the
upper ridge will shift slightly east allowing a decent upper level
shortwave to bring convection into the region Fri morning/afternoon.
Right now it appears convection will wane as it moves east of I-65
into the ridge.  While no severe wx threat appears likely with
storms Fri, a few of them could be on the strong side with gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

Perhaps the biggest concern for today and Fri will be the heat and
humidity.  With the strong ridge in place, expect high temps to
reach the 90-95 degree range both days with today being slightly
warmer than Fri.  Max afternoon heat indices will range from 98-102
this afternoon and 95-100 for Fri afternoon.  Night time lows won`t
provide much relief with temps only cooling into the lower 70s

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Friday Night - Sunday...

Hot, humid conditions are expected to continue through the weekend
as strong upper ridging remains in place.  Expect highs in the upper
80s/lower 90s and lows in the 70s.  As the ridge begins to shift
eastward through the weekend, chances for showers/storms will
increase to 20-40% with the best focus for convection during the
afternoon/evening hours around peak heating.  While overall wind
fields will remain on the weak side, good instability combined with
any small disturbance in the flow may produce t-storms with gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Monday - Wednesday...

The ridge will continue to slowly flatten through the middle of next
week.  This will result in at least a slight drop in temps into the
upper 80s to around 90 for highs.  Low chances for mainly day time
showers/storms will continue in an active SW flow along the
periphery of the ridge.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Though a weak surface front will approach the region from the
northwest this afternoon and evening, a lack of moisture plus warm
temperatures aloft should significantly restrict thunderstorm
development in central Kentucky. So, will continue with dry TAFs.

Will also continue with the chance of BR early Friday morning as dew
point depressions narrow, winds go nearly calm, and skies stay
mostly clear. Urban SDF has struggled to get to 10SM today, so will
throw in a couple hours of haze there around sunup.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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