Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 302309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The TAF sites are expected to remain under the influence of an
expansive upper trough through this forecast cycle, however high
pressure at the surface and a relative lack of moisture should be
enough to keep things VFR. The one exception looks to be a brief
period of MVFR possible at LEX toward dawn. Forecast model guidance
actually promotes fog at all TAF sites, however crossover T`s appear
too low at SDF/BWG, and are only marginally supportive at LEX. Other
than the brief MVFR at LEX, expect only a few clouds over night with
light and variable or calm winds. A light gradient out of the SW
will pick up on Thursday, with scattered cu around 5 k feet and some
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........BJS





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