Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 222325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
725 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Largely a persistence forecast as a strong upper ridge remains
parked over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface pattern is
quite stagnant, keeping conditions quite warm and humid. Cu field is
actually most agitated under the heart of the upper ridge, and we
have seen some very isolated showers/T-storms. Will carry just
enough of a POP until sunset to reflect slight chance in some of our
southern Indiana counties, but will keep is solidly north of the
Ohio River.

Patchy fog will again be a player late tonight into Sat morning as
temps again cross over current dewpoints, but there were minimal
dense fog concerns this morning. Urban areas should remain
unrestricted due to heat island influences. Saturday looks similar
to today, but even less of a chance for convection as deep moisture
will be in even shorter supply.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Hot and dry weather will continue through Tuesday as eastern CONUS
ridging persists. Max temps each day will run close to 90, which is
well above normal but actually very similar to late September last
year.  This pattern finally breaks down on Wednesday as an upper
trof digs into the Upper Midwest, pushing a front into the Ohio
Valley. POPs will be limited to slight chance as the front will be
lacking in both low-level convergence and deep moisture. Canadian
high pressure will finally bring more typical fall weather Thursday
and Friday, with temps actually running just slightly below normal
for this time of year.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The main TAF concern for this period is fog development late tonight
into tomorrow morning.  BWG/HNB still look good for IFR and possibly
lower vsbys at HNB after crossover T analysis.  LEX could see some
brief MVFR fog around sunrise, and SDF looks a bit too dry for any
fog that would cause flight restrictions.  Fog should burn off
shortly after sunrise at all TAF sites with conditions returning to




Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
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