Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2015

A mild and dry Thanksgiving is in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky as the region remains on the western edge of a
surface high pressure while energy associated with the western
trough stays out in the central Plains to upper Midwest. Warm
breezes this afternoon have allowed readings to jump into low 60s.
Expect a mild night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

For Thanksgiving day, plan on mild temperatures, mostly to partly
sunny skies with a steady south breeze.  High temperatures will top
out in the mid to upper 60s, some 10-15 degrees above normal. The
last 60+ degree Thanksgiving in central Kentucky was in 2012, but
the previous two years (2014 and 2013) were unseasonably cold with
highs in the 30s/40s, so outdoor activities will certainly be more
comfortable this year.

South breezes will be in the 15 to 20 mph range, especially during
the late morning and afternoon hours. The mild weather regime
continues Thursday night with temperatures around 50.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2015

An active, unsettled weather pattern will round out November across
the lower Ohio Valley as multiple rounds of rain look to affect the

First, 25.12z guidance has trended slower with the onset and arrival
of the rain for Friday. The surface front and associated shield of
rain is now expected to hold off until Friday late morning (across
southern Indiana) to after sunset or closer to midnight (across
southern/southeast Kentucky). Consequently, high temperatures were
nudged up several degrees given a little more sunshine (especially
south/east) so plan on highs to once again top in the low to mid 60s.

Precipitation should work southeast out of central Indiana and
Illinois over the course of Friday afternoon/night. An initial wave
of low pressure looks to lift out of Texas Saturday, interacting
with the stalled front across central Kentucky. Latest guidance puts
the front south of the KY parkways during the day Saturday, which
may hold highs north in the upper 40s to low 50s while areas to the
south climb into the upper 50s.

Saturday night into Sunday will likely turn out to be the wettest
time frame of the period as the wave of low pressure slowly lifts
northeast. PWATs will be anomalously high for this time of year,
running around 1.5 inches and forecast soundings show deep
saturation for the area. Bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall,
particularly across southwest KY into portions of central KY will be

No real improvement in forecast model confidence late in the weekend
and into next week as guidance continues to struggle with the
evolution of the western trough and its progression across the
central Plains. It does appear that we`ll see another storm system
develop and eventually a cold front passage, though timing that
feature remains below average. Given we`ll be on the warm sector
side with weak/moderate warm air advection in a moist environment,
low chance POPs Mon-Tue look good. Beyond that, a model consensus of
lower chances and maybe cooler temperatures seems reasonable.

Total rainfall for the Friday night through Tuesday time frame looks
to be anywhere from 2 to locally 3 inches. The greatest amounts at
this time look to fall across southern Indiana and west central KY.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1204 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the upcoming
forecast period.  An area of high pressure along the eastern US
coast will provide pleasant conditions across the region resulting in
good flying weather.  Surface winds will be the main aviation
concern this afternoon.  South to southeasterly winds of 10-13kts
with occasional gusts up to 20 knots will be possible this afternoon
with winds leveling off toward sunset.  High clouds will creep in
from the west/southwest late tonight but will have no impacts on
aviation.  VFR conditions are expected to continue on Thursday.
Surface winds will be the main aviation issue on Thursday with
breezy south to southwesterly winds expected.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........ZBT
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