Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 011850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
ssued at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The main forecast highlights in the short term are the upper
level low over northern Indiana, fog potential tonight and shower
chances Sunday.

As of mid-afternoon, the center of the upper low was near Fort
Wayne, Indiana evident by the clear swirls in visible satellite
imagery. Low clouds, drizzle and scattered showers have prevailed
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky, and it`s been
another day of readings in the 60s. For the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening, light showers will swing west to east
through central Kentucky before dissipating by sunset.

The abundant low level moisture, lingering low clouds and light
winds at the surface is likely to lead to another round of fog
across portions of the area beginning late this evening but
especially after midnight. Similar to last night and early this
morning, dense fog is possible. Statistical guidance and hi-res
model visibility plots show greater threat over southern Indiana
and north-central Kentucky. A dense fog advisory may be needed,
however with coordination with IND, will hold off for now and let
the evening shift further analyze the data. Either way, fog is
expected but confidence in widespread dense fog is lower.

For Sunday, the upper level low pushes further away from the area
but clouds will be slow to scatter during the day as there remains
quite a bit of moisture. With some diurnal heating, isolated to
scattered showers may develop during the afternoon across the area,
mainly north of the KY Parkways. Look for highs to reach near 70
degrees, especially if clouds clear out earlier. Look for dry
conditions Sunday night and lows in the lower to middle 50s. Some
fog may be possible again by early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The main story in the long term across the lower Ohio Valley will be
the warmer, drier conditions for most of the work week while those
along the east coast watch closely the track of Hurricane Matthew.

The upper level pattern is expected to transition from zonal to
ridging in response to a trough digging across the western Rockies.
This will bring warmer temperatures, even low 80s, by the middle of
the work week.

Though a lot depends on the eventual track of Matthew, the next
weather system looks to be a cold front later in the week, either
Thursday or Friday. There`s decent forcing with these feature and
good moisture return, so precipitation chances in the 20-40 percent
range look reasonable at this time. In the wake of the front,
temperatures are forecast to drop back to normal to below normal
heading into next weekend.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper low is making some progress northward today, so that should
mean a little more time dealing with the lingering low clouds and
moisture. Rest of the today will see slow rises in cigs, possibly to
VFR levels by late afternoon. We still have a chance for some light
rain showers to rotate into the terminals from the southwest, but
think the chance for impacts are enough at SDF to include vicinity
workding there. Tonight, low clouds should form again late, possibly
bringing IFR conditions around daybreak at SDF/LEX. Winds will
become westerly by mid morning Sunday, with cigs rising above fuel
alternate levels by late morning.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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