Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 242306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
706 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A southerly breeze and partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep
temperatures elevated tonight, with most lows in or around the upper

Low pressure will move NNE across Missouri Saturday and Saturday
night with its warm front well to our north. Even with increasing
cloudiness and showers/storms moving in in the afternoon, models
will underestimate high temperatures in the deep, strong WAA
tomorrow, so will go above guidance for MaxT. The showers and storms
will be most likely in the afternoon, especially west of I-65. (Some
models, like the RAP and the 3km NAM, actually hold precip off until

It will be a breezy day in the warm sector with afternoon gusts of
30 to 35 mph possible, especially in the Bowling Green region.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are virtually a certainty
Saturday night as the low to our west pushes a weak surface trof
through the Ohio Valley with deep moisture to work with. General
rainfall totals should be around half an inch.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The Missouri surface low will slowly fill as it heads into the Great
Lakes by Monday morning with showers and thunderstorms continuing
out ahead of it. A 5h speed max coming in from the west Sunday
afternoon could enhance thunderstorm development in eastern sections
of central Kentucky.

After a brief break Sunday night, the next low will move from the
Ozarks to southern Great Lakes Monday-Monday night and bring more
showers and thunderstorms along with it. The better instability and
upper dynamics will be over the lower Mississippi Valley, but mid-
level lapse rates will steepen here in the afternoon coincident with
the low approaching from the west, so a few stronger storms Monday
afternoon aren`t entirely out of the question.

Tuesday the upper trof from the previous day will be off to our east
with some weak ridging moving in. Models do show lingering sfc-
850hPa moisture, with some light rain showers possible primarily in
the morning before the surface trof completely clears the area.

After a mid-week break, the next system will come out of the Plains
late in the week and bring more showers Thursday-Friday.

With the active storm track, no intrusions of Canadian air are in
our near future. The coolest morning will probably be on Thursday
with lows upper 40s to lower 50s.


.Aviation...(00z TAF Update)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Main concern is LLWS threat overnight and then shower and
thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon across central Kentucky.

Breezy south winds continue across the region and will relax
somewhat but stay around 10 kts through the evening. A 45 kt jet out
of the southwest will set up overnight, at about 2000 ft, and will
bring marginal LLWS conditions to central Kentucky.

Inversion should break between 13-14z giving way to gusty south
winds. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts during the late morning and
afternoon. Shower chances will increase in the afternoon, and will
introduce VCSH 21z and after. A few thunderstorms will be possible
at BWG, possibly as far north as SDF and LEX. Looking ahead, some
MVFR ceilings and better coverage of showers and some thunderstorms
are likely after 00z.




Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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