Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 072053
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
353 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now thru Tuesday Night)... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun
Feb 7 2016

...Winter Returns Tonight...

Enjoy the last bit of 50 degree weather late this afternoon, because
Winter returns overnight. Latest water vapor imagery shows a potent
shortwave dropping out of the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Could
see some light rain/snow showers overnight, mainly in our eastern
CWA. Could pick up a dusting on a grassy or elevated surface but
not expecting any real accums from this initial wave of rain/snow.

Along and West of the I-65 Corridor...

After a brief morning lull, expect a couple rounds of scattered
numerous rain/snow shower activity through the afternoon. These
showers are tricky as surface temps are expected to be in the upper
30s and low 40s. However, steep low level lapse rates should support
a rain/snow mix in the 37-40 degree range and likely all snow below
37 degrees. Periods of moderate snow are possible, especially in the
afternoon hours, however given the warm surface temps not expecting
a whole lot in the way of accumulation. Rates could be briefly hard
enough to cause a light dusting so use caution through the
afternoon. Will issue a Special Weather Statement over the western
two-thirds of the CWA to account for this.

...Winter Weather Advisory Along I-75 Corridor Monday Evening -
Tuesday Evening...

Over our eastern third of the CWA, expect that scattered to numerous
moderate snow showers don`t arrive until early evening. With surface
temperatures falling by this time, moderate snow showers could begin
to have an impact. With this in mind, elected to go with a Winter
Weather Advisory starting at 5 PM EST in coordination with OHX/JKL.
This is mainly an impact based advisory as actual 1 inch criteria
will be hard to meet except for in isolated locations with each snow
shower. However, with several rounds of snow showers expected
through at least Tuesday evening, amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible over the whole time span. More importantly, any moderate to
briefly heavy snow shower could cause travel impacts over a quick
period of time, which is the main reason the advisory is being
issued.

One note on the advisory. Could see it possibly needing extended
westward if surface temps don`t get as high on Monday or if main
batch of snow showers arrive later. Also, if snow showers end up
more intense than expected (which they have potential to do given
the steep low level lapse rates and saturation up through a good
portion of the DGZ) look for a potential upgrade. Mid shift will
have more data to look at and can refine headlines as needed.

Most accumulations are expected Monday night and Tuesday as
temperatures stay in the 20s. This will lead to snow ratios likely
in the 15 to 20:1 ration and help squeeze some additional light
accumuations with each passing shower. Please note that snow shower
activity will be off and on and hit or miss. Bottom line, travel
will be impacted AT TIMES.

Lows drop into the teens Tuesday night with some light snow showers
still lingering.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday thru Sunday)... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun
Feb 7 2016

Wednesday - Sunday...

Persistent NW flow aloft between NE CONUS troughing and SW CONUS
ridging will result in a cold but mostly dry forecast through the
extended. Will be dealing with a few lingering light snow showers
across our east on Wednesday, with some very light additional
accumulations possible. Temperatures will struggle on Wednesday
under mostly cloudy skies and steady cold advection. Look for highs
only in the low 20s.

Look for cold and dry conditions Wednesday night through Thursday
night as Arctic high pressure settles into the region. Lows will
mostly be in the 10 to 15 degree range Wednesday night, and in the
teens again Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the mid 20s to
low 30s.

Will continue to mention slight chances for rain on snow on Friday
as a fast moving clipper dives through the NW flow. Highs should be
in the 30s.

Another Arctic high centers over the Great Lakes through the
weekend. with more cold and dry conditions. Lows Friday night and
Saturday night will be mostly in the teens. Saturday and Sunday
highs will likely be in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1218 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the day and evening hours as
high pressure shifts off to our east.  We`ll see mid-high level
cloudiness move back in later this afternoon and evening.  Southwest
winds of 10-12kts with gusts up to 20kts will be possible this
afternoon with gusts subsiding near sunset.

Surface cold front will push in from the northwest tonight bringing
rain showers to the region.  Surface winds will remain southwesterly
ahead of the front and then shift to the west late tonight. Ceilings
will fall through the night reaching MVFR thresholds by 08/10-12Z at
the terminals.  Colder air moving in will result in a primary
rain/snow mix at the terminals for Monday morning with MVFR
cigs/vsbys expected.  Winds will ramp up toward the end of the TAF
period with wind gusts coming back into the 20-22kt range.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ Monday to 6 PM
     EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for KYZ036-037-040>043-047>049-
     055>057-066-067-077-078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ


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