Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The concern for the forecast area over the next few hours will be
the dense fog that has formed. Mostly clear skies and calm winds
will continue overnight. However, direr air trying to filter in from
the north should keep the fog from developing too much further to
the north. Therefore, will not expand the Dense Fog Advisory any
further to the north at this point, and some locations on the
northern edge of the Advisory could see some improvement over the
next few hours.

Conditions should begin to improve shortly after sunrise. For the
remainder of the day, the upper level trough that moved through
yesterday will continue to slowly shift eastward. A disturbance
rotating around the back side of this trough may bring some
increased cloudiness to the Bluegrass region this afternoon. The
rain, however, should stay east of the area. Despite northwesterly
winds, temperatures should rise nicely today under mostly sunny
skies, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will slowly build in
from the west tonight through Monday. Dry weather will continue with
temperatures near normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term period will start out dry with ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface. Southerly winds will usher in warmer air.
Temperatures on Tuesday look to top out a bit above normal in the
lower 80s.

Beyond Tuesday the pattern becomes more unsettled as the upper level
ridging flattens out somewhat. Moisture will be on the increase as
southerly winds usher in more humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. By
Thursday dewpoints look to be solidly into the mid to upper 60s.
Temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s each afternoon.
Multiple disturbances moving through the flow aloft look to bring
rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through the
end of the week. Some diurnal convection may form as well. The
period will not be a washout by any means, but trying to time the
periods of thunderstorms is difficult. Some strong storms are not
out of the question, though the best chance for severe weather will
likely be west of the forecast area. It will be much more muggy than
what we have seen over the last couple of weeks, however.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

With indications of fog on area observations and webcams, issued an
update earlier for KBWG to have potential at least for IFR
conditions the rest of the night. They just dropped down to that
level in the last 20 minutes, and may still get down to LIFR/VLIFR
by daybreak. Will amend after watching trends. Latest GOES-R fog
probs indicates BWG is right on the edge of the worst area. SDF/LEX
later should be on the edge as well.  Went more optimistic, given
larger temp/dewpoint spreads, but will have to see how those trends
go as well. Once that fog burns off, we should be at VFR the rest of
the period, with winds gusting from the northwest during the late
morning and afternoon hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for



Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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