Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1146 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1125 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

Cloud deck continues moving towards Louisville.  French Lick has
gone overcast with a 7 klt deck. Have trended sky cover towards
current obs and should see temps stop their drop under these clouds,
but only along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

Seeing some upstream mid-level clouds approaching from Iowa/Illinois
this hour. Most model RH fields show this moisture at ~700 mb and
have it brushing our northern forecast area by daybreak. Bumped up
sky cover a little, which does warm lows up a degree or two in some
spots. Given how late the louds come, our colder spots likely still
will drop down into the upper teens, but most of the region should
see low/mid 20s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

Surface high pressure will dominate the short term period with
chilly air in place for the beginning of the work week courtesy of a
sharp upper level trough over the Midwest.  We`ll remain dry in the
short term period with only a few mid and upper level clouds to
speak of.  With good rad cooling for much of the night, temps should
fall into the low to mid 20s for lows with the usual cold spots
dipping into the upper teens for lows.  With a little bit of a wind
(5-10 mph) in place tonight, we`ll see wind chills dip into the
teens for the latter portion of the night.

Monday will be a mostly sunny day with temps beginning a warming
trend as the upper trough departs our region.  Expect Mon highs to
reach the mid 40s to around 50.  Monday night low temps will be
noticeably warmer in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Heights will gradually build across the eastern U.S. during the mid
week time frame as a deep upper low drops into the U.S. southwest.
This will result in a warming trend for us throughout the week.
Tues/Wed will remain dry under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies.
We`ll see high temps in the low to mid 50s by Tues and then mid 50s
to low 60s by Wed.

Thursday - Sunday...

We`ll enter another wet pattern late in the day on Thurs as a slow
moving cold front enters the Midwest bringing multiple rounds of
rain to the Ohio Valley Thurs night through early next week.  At
this point, the best time to see steady light to moderate rainfall
looks to be Fri/Fri night.  Long range models vary on exactly how
much rainfall will result, but a good 0.5-1 inch isn`t out of the
question Fri/Fri night.

The upper low will finally eject eastward across the Plains by early
next week potentially trailing the first front closely.  This would
mean only a brief break in the rain sometime on Sat/Sat night before
the moisture supply is again enhanced by the approaching upper low
and sfc low pressure moving NE out the southern U.S.  At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to remain on the warm side of all of these
weather systems resulting in a cold rain for much of the time. Total
rainfall amounts from Thurs night through Sun look to total between
0.75 to 1.5 inches.

Temps will be on a roller coaster ride through the long term period.
They will continue their upward climb Thurs/Fri with highs well into
the 60s both days.  After the first front passes, temps will take a
dive back into the upper 40s/lower 50s for highs both Sat/Sun. Night
time lows should stay around or just above freezing in the colder


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1145 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

A mid-level disturbance will approach the region overnight, brushing
the KSDF/KLEX corridor with some 7-10kft clouds. Winds will pick up
from the south and southwest as well, gusting by late morning and
into the afternoon hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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