Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 021713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
113 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon May 2 2016

A cold front associated with low pressure over southern Ohio is
slowly making its way across central Kentucky early this morning.
The front is currently between Louisville and Frankfort stretching
back towards Logan county. This front will continue to slowly sink
southeastward today, stalling around the Lake Cumberland region. A
disturbance will track northeast along this boundary bringing
numerous showers and chances for thunderstorms to portions of east
central KY today. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be
along and east of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. To the
northeast of this line isolated to scattered showers will be
possible, mainly this afternoon.

Rain will shift east of the area tonight, bringing a period of dry
weather. However, as an upper level trough approaches Tuesday, some
showers are expected to develop. Moisture will be lacking so these
showers should be fairly light.

Temperatures today will range from the mid 60s over southern IN to
the lower to mid 70s across east central KY. Lows tonight will drop
into the 50s. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler, topping out in
the mid 60s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon May 2 2016

A deep upper trough is still expected to dig into the eastern CONUS
Wednesday and the slowly shift eastward, making its way off the
coast by the end of the week. Models continue to be consistent with
swinging a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. As temps
cool aloft, soundings do show a bit of instability developing in the
afternoon, so will carry a slight chance for thunderstorms during
that time frame. This rain will move out Wednesday evening with much
cooler air filtering in behind the front. Lows Wednesday night look
to drop into the lower to mid 40s.

Thursday will be cool with some chances for light showers across the
Bluegrass as energy rotates around the base of the upper trough.
Highs will top out in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass with lower 60s
across much of the rest of the area.

As the upper trough shifts eastward, so will the rain chances. This
will also bring warming temperatures Friday into the weekend. Highs
on Friday look to be back into the lower 70s. This weekend will then
see highs back into the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies as
ridging builds in.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT Mon May 2 2016

Steady rain with embedded t-storms along a slowly exiting frontal
boundary will continue to affect the BWG/LEX terminals this
afternoon.  SDF should stay mainly dry except for a stray sprinkle
or two.  Some of the heavier convection at BWG/LEX may cause MVFR
conditions at times through 22Z.  After 0Z, rains should move off to
the east with the TAF sites remaining dry through the rest of the
TAF period.  By 5-7Z, however, cigs and vsbys will begin to decline
with MVFR below fuel alternate likely tonight.  IFR is also possible
but not as confident in that restriction yet so will hold off on IFR
mention.  Flight conditions should improve above fuel alternate
after sunrise tomorrow morning with continued improvement toward
early afternoon.  Vrb or westerly winds today will become
predominantly NW behind the boundary tonight and tomorrow.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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