Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 100943
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
543 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Pre 1st Period...
Well...Low over the eastern Buckeye state with secondary front
producing very isol showers from OWB to Breckinridge County.
Coverage is basically 5-10% with isolated showers. OWB is carrying
bkn095, so likely most of this is aloft and not striking the ground.
However, weak convergence feature been persistent enough to justify
including isol shra moving southward thru 15z across wrn and srn CWA
to the TN state line. This lines up well with PAH fcst.

Thu-Fri

Well...1020 mb sfc High pressure over Lake Michigan and moving
towards lake Huron and Lake Erie will provide us OH Valley with very
pleasant and drier airmass with no precip at all. Temps yesterday
across STL and Central IL were in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temps
should be in the lower to mid 80s, but have added a fudge factor of
1-2 degrees for drying brown grasses with little rainfall as of
late. With dew points mixing out into the mid to upper 50s, added
just a tad to make mid 80s today. Expect some afternoon Cu and some
sct high CI up top.

Tonight will be mostly clear with light and variable winds with
temps in the lower 60s, except LOU metro. Friday is a repeat of
Thursday with temps 2-3 degrees with warmer with slightly higher
1000-850 thicknesses.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Big changes will be coming to the region by the end of the long term
with much cooler temperatures expected by mid week. Prior to that,
warm and humid conditions are expected with rain chances on the
increase through early next week.

For the first half of the weekend, the forecast is looking drier.
Moisture return will begin this weekend with dewpoints rising back
into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday afternoon. Aloft the flow
will be slightly northwesterly. For Friday night and Saturday a weak
shortwave will move through this flow. However, this wave now looks
like it will stay far enough north that the forecast area will
remain dry. Chances for precipitation will increase slightly
Saturday night into Sunday, mainly across southern Indiana.
Temperatures this weekend will be warm with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

For Sunday night and Monday there remains some question on the
evolution of the system as a deep low develops and moves across the
Great Lakes region. There is a chance of an MCS developing Sunday
night into Monday and diving across the area. This would have a big
impact on both temperatures and precipitation chances through the
rest of the day Monday. For now will keep high chance pops for
Sunday night and Monday.

Storm chances will continue Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a
strong cold front that looks to push through on Tuesday. The passage
of the cold front will bring rain chances to an end by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Behind this front much cooler and drier air
will push in. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in
the upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60- quite
pleasant for the middle of July.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Well...weak front is passing through the CWA with some mid deck
clouds and very isolated showers south of SDF and north of BWG.
There are extremely isolated showers (<10% coverage). This has been
dissipating and have no plans to include any mention at any site.
Blow off CI/CS from MCS in KS will swing through this morning with
filtered sunshine but VFR all the way. High pressure over Great
Lakes will keep light N-NE winds today.  VFR all the way for this
TAF fcst.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JDG
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JDG




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