Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221332
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
932 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Early morning fog has mostly dissipated, as has the isolated T-storm
over southern Indiana. Expect the rest of the day to be dry as the
upper jet gets further separated from the weakening surface
convergence, and the upper ridge to our north and west takes
control. Hourly grids reflect this trend fairly well, but will clean
up text forecasts shortly.

Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Several models showed showers developing near CVG and traveling
southwest early this morning, and now the radar is showing
verification of that potential. These showers are forming in the
right rear quadrant of a weak upper jet, oriented from NNE to SSW.
700 mb winds have some weak convergence as well. This development
will not last long though, as the low-level convergence weakens by
daybreak and the upper jet travels SSW away from the area. Updated
the gridded forecast.

.Short Term (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the
Midwest today and Saturday. Low-level thicknesses drop a little for
today, but will keep temperatures within a degree or two of
yesterday. We also should see very isolated storm activity as well
this afternoon, with 5-15 percent coverage. The best chance, because
of  available moisture and instability, would be over southern
Indiana. Precipitable waters come down quite a bit Saturday, so not
expecting any storms then.

.Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Nothing significant changes in our forecast for most of this period
as well. Models are in excellent agreement, having the large ridge
keeping our weather hot and dry. Ensemble model spreads are low,
implying confidence in the forecast. That pattern does look to break
down by the end of the period though, as our ridge gets pushed south
and east by the next trough. Temperatures Thursday should be closer
to normal with better rain chances returning.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure will keep the TAF sites dry and VFR through this TAF
cycle, with the exception of some morning fog. BWG and HNB will
start out the morning down near minimums with improvement an hour or
so after sunrise. Elsewhere, SDF will settle right on the VFR/MVFR
threshold and LEX could briefly fall into MVFR.

Later today, expect a few-sct layer of cumulus around 4-5 K feet
with a very light surface wind out of the E or ENE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS/RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS



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