Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

...Rain tapering off this evening...

Have continued to trim back the Flash Flood Watch to the west of
what should be the final area of precip to move through central KY
this afternoon and evening.  Out of an abundance of caution have
kept the Watch going in the eastern part of the CWA. Rainfall rates
in the last batch of rain are not nearly as high as what has
occurred over the past 24 hours, but given that precipitable water
continues to exceed 2 inches, will let the evening shift make the
final call on trimming the last of it once the rain has exited.

With all but a few areas to the west of Louisville having had an
inch or more of rain since yesterday, patchy fog is likely late
tonight.  Rather than split hairs on location, will include it in
all areas, which matches up with neighboring WFOs.

With the passage of the vort lobe responsible for today`s rain, we
get about a 24-hr reprieve of any organized precip. Dew points
generally remain at or above 70, though, so disorganized precip - in
the form of afternoon pop-up storms will occur again Friday. 30-40
POPs may be a bit high considering lack of dynamics, but with
abundant moisture, any breaks in the clouds should be enough to warm
the surface to convective temps, which are right at forecast highs,
in the mid 80s.

Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will be mainly 70-75.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Little overall change in the upper level pattern is forecast for the
bulk of the extended period. The large, relatively flat ridge
stretching east-west across the southern 1/4 of the country remains
in place, with a series of short waves moving across the country to
our north. The ridge does flatten a bit out west over the weekend,
with hints that the axis will shift east in to the central plains
and reintensify somewhat. All in all, however, the daily forecasts
will vary little.  Max temperatures will fluctuate from the mid 80s
to around 90, while minimum readings stay in the 70-75 degree range.
While POPs are included in every forecast period, this does not mean
daily rain for everyone, as the hit-or-miss nature of the storms
will mimic that of the past week.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

One fairly large slug of rain is pushing NE of LEX, with another
lifting through BWG at this time. To the north and west, the
boundary layer is quite stable, with extensive stratus holding in a
borderline MVFR/IFR ceiling.

BWG initialization will be tricky, as the precip shield may well be
just east of there by the valid time of the TAF. SDF is also
starting to go in and out of a fuel-alternate ceiling, but LEX will
begin with a drizzly/showery IFR.

Will be in fuel-alternate ceilings on at least a TEMPO basis through
the afternoon at all terminals. LEX will be the worst with plenty of
IFR, including TEMPO IFR vis in showers. Will have to watch
convection over the Wabash Valley, as the hi-res models have storms
making a run at SDF/LEX around 00Z, but initializations are overdone
with the current activity.

Plenty of recent rainfall will support fog development toward
morning, even though it will be mitigated by a BKN stratus deck.
Really that just makes the difference between our current MVFR
forecast and a potential IFR restriction.

Look for ceiling/vis to improve to VFR late Fri morning on light SW


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for



Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........JBS
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