225
FXUS63 KLMK 290500
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
100 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms each day through
  Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive next Wednesday and Thursday.

* Independence Day looks optimistic with a scattered chance for
  non-severe showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Convection continues to wane across the region.  As of now, just
some light rain was noted over Orange and Washington counties of
southern Indiana.  Expect this activity to diminish in the next 90-
120 minutes.  After that, partial clearing of skies is expected with
some patchy fog in places that received ample rainfall this
afternoon.  Current forecast captures these ideas quite well.

Issued at 658 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Outflow dominated storms continue to diminish across the region.
Some scattered rain showers will be seen across the Bluegrass region
for the next hour or so.  Elsewhere, scattered storms will be seen
across our northern row of southern IN counties
(Dubois/Orange/Washington).  Some of those storms could be strong
with torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and intense lightning.  We
expect this activity to diminish toward sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This afternoon... scattered showers and storms have developed over
the region. This will continue through sunset before dissipating.
These storms are very disorganized and pulse-y which will bring some
gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

Tonight... calm to light winds overnight and scattered to broken mid-
level clouds will help for fog to develop in the early morning. Fog
may become dense in areas that saw rain this afternoon and
in protected valley areas.

Sunday... fog will thin and lift within a few hours of sunrise.
Winds will pick up out of the southwest, continuing to usher in
warm, moist air. Diurnal convection is expected to develop in the
afternoon, remaining disorganized. Gusty winds, lightning, and heavy
rain will be possible through sunset. High temperatures will be in
the mid-upper 80s with dew points in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Sunday Night - Monday Night...

On Monday, a trough swings through the region, bringing better
forcing and shear to a very moist and unstable airmass that has been
over the region for several days. Storms may become a little more
organized than what we saw over the last several days. SPC has a
marginal over the northern third of the region, which makes sense.
Gusty to damaging winds, small hail, lightning, and heavy rain will
be possible in the afternoon and into the overnight.

Tuesday - Thursday...

A cold front will push through the region, allowing dew points to
drop and conditions to become more comfortable. Temperatures will
remain near normal in the mid-upper 80s. High pressure will be over
the region, helping to keep conditions dry and skies mostly sunny.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

Another trough may brush the northern half of the region late week,
bringing a scattered chance for showers and storms. Following, we
will see brief high pressure over the region before it pushes east
of the region and precip chances increase again. Independence day
continues to look optimistic with just a scattered chance for non-
severe showers and storms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Another muggy night with only cirrus cloud cover and light southerly
winds expected through daybreak. VFR conditions in place now, but
BWG could briefly have MVFR vis in fog around sunrise. Low
confidence in that forecast but didn`t hit the vis too hard in this
one.

Largely a persistence forecast to cover afternoon/evening
convection, which we`ll handle with a PROB30 for brief IFR vis
during any storms that directly impact a terminal. Much like the
past couple of evenings, look for storms to dissipate by sunset with
light south breezes and mid-level cigs from debris clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...RAS