Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 292025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

A deep moisture plume continues to stream from the southern Plains
up through our southern CWA and off the mid Atlantic Coast as it
rides over top of a weak SE CONUS ridge. The plume remains oriented
nearly parallel to the surface front, which has now cleared our
region. A secondary surge in moisture is arriving over the region,
and will help to produce steady rain through the evening and much of
the overnight across central and southern KY. Expect mainly dry
across southern IN, deeper into the drier air. The rain will likely
continue off and on through Monday across our south. Will see an
increase in showers everywhere Monday afternoon as a warm front
lifts north. Many spots south of I-64 can expect a half an inch to
an inch through Monday evening, with the highest totals expected
near the Lake Cumberland region and the lower totals more across
central KY. Lows will mostly be in the 40s, with some lower 50s
hanging on near Lake Cumberland. Highs on Monday should recover to
the low and mid 50s in many spots as the warm sector becomes
established again.

Warm front will be north of our area by Monday evening with potent
closed upper low moving into the upper Midwest by Tuesday morning.
Main forcing ahead of the associated PV anomaly should be to the NW
of our CWA, however lift and moisture should be present to warrant
mention of pops everywhere. Most rainfall should continue to be
across the SE where subtropical moisture plume lingers in
coincidence with mid level frontogenesis. An additional .25" to .75"
is expected Monday night with the highest totals SE and lowest
totals NW. Small diurnal trend for Monday night as we remain under
a rainy and advective setup.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

The potent closed upper low will rotate into the western Great Lakes
Tuesday/Tuesday Night. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slide
through our region along with a mid level dry slot. This will
gradually shut the rain off from West to East, with areas west of I-
65 dry be early Tuesday evening. Only a few showers are expected to
be lingering along the I-75 corridor by dawn on Wednesday. Highs in
the 50s on Tuesday will quickly fall in the afternoon and evening as
the cooler/drier air works in behind the front. Lows Tuesday night
are expected to fall into the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE.

Overall rainfall totals Sunday night through Tuesday night should
range between 1 and 2.5 inches along and east of a BWG to LEX line,
where a few locally higher amounts are possible near Lake
Cumberland. Heavy rain at times, combined with already saturated
grounds could lead to some local flooding concerns Monday evening
into Tuesday. Our far SE CWA continues to be in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall during this time.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Trough axis associated with the potent upper system finally rotates
through the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday evening, returning us to
a cooler/drier pattern. Will have to watch for a few lingering
showers far east on Wednesday morning, and perhaps enough low level
moisture across southern IN to squeeze out some light precipitation
just ahead of the trough axis. Otherwise, expect a return of our
long lost friend, the sun. Despite increased sunshine, temps will be
cooler with only 40s to around 50 for highs on Wednesday. Wednesday
night lows drop to around freezing.

Thursday Night - Sunday...

Upper air pattern gets complex to end the week, which results in
lower overall confidence during this period. still pretty confident
in overall dry conditions, however potential disturbances in the
flow will bring chances for increased cloud cover and tricky temp
forecasts. Most of the disturbances depicted by the models look to
be moisture starved so will not mention any precip chances.

After another day of highs mostly in the 40s and lows in the lower
30s on Thursday/Thursday night, temps become fairly normal (for this
time of year) through the weekend. That brings mostly low 50s for
highs and lows in the low to mid 30s.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

A broad/weak surface frontal boundary will continue to sit south of
the TAF sites during the forecast period.  Deep moisture will
continue to overspread the region.  A rather impressive low-level
inversion will likely result in persistent low stratus combined with
periods of drizzle/mist and some light rain.

For KBWG, it appears that conditions will remain in the low end of
the IFR category.  Some occasional drops to LIFR are certainly
possible throughout the period.  However, the best chances of that
look to be later during the overnight period Surface winds will
remain light out of the northeast.

For KSDF, ceilings look to remain IFR throughout the afternoon
hours.  Current thinking is that we`ll see less precipitation at the
terminal and ceilings may rise to around FL012-015 late this
afternoon and into the evening hours.  However, as the night goes
on, the guidance suggests we`ll drop back into the IFR range with
ceilings dropping to around FL007-008.  Visibility will likely
remain in the low MVFR range with drizzle and mist being the primary
restrictions. Surface winds will remain out of the northeast through

For KLEX, ceilings look to remain low IFR throughout the period.
Ceilings may drop to LIFR at times during the period and
visibilities are likely to remain in the IFR to MVFR period due to
mist and drizzle.  Ceilings are expected to run FL004-007 this
afternoon and then generally around FL004-005 overnight.  Ceilings
may lift a little bit after 30/13Z.  Surface winds will remain out
of the northeast.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.