Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 090527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1133 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Steady snow showers pivoting through central Kentucky and southern
Indiana have been producing 0.5 to locally 1 inch accumulations this
evening. Visibilities have been 1 to 3 miles. Area webcams and
reports received from spotters indicate that roads have become snow
covered. With temperatures falling into the low 20s and teens,
lingering moisture from earlier today is also freezing. As a result,
plenty of slick and potentially hazardous roads area wide,
especially on untreated and side streets. Went ahead and expanded
the Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area. Updated products
and web services already out. Looking ahead, an extension in time is
also likely as snow chances and hazardous roads are expected through
early Wednesday morning. Will coordinate that effort with
surrounding offices during this shift.

Updated at 839 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Mainly light snow continues this evening, though there are some
embedded areas of more moderate snow. The heaviest area of snow at
this time is moving into Logan county. This should move through
south central KY fairly quickly, but some light accumulations will
accompany it. Therefore, increased the snow amounts to up to about
half an inch for southwest central KY through 06Z. Models continue
to suggest a band of heavier snow will set up across the northern
Bluegrass over the next couple of hours and continue overnight.
However, as of now the heaviest snow has stayed to the north of the
forecast area. Kept the general idea of the heaviest snows overnight
in that area, but lowered snowfall totals just a bit. With
temperatures below 30 across the region and road temperatures
falling, snow will likely begin to stick on untreated surfaces.

Updated at 555 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

The majority of the more convective snow showers have moved off to
the east of the region at this time. However, light snow with
pockets of embedded moderate snow continues. Made some small changes
to the forecast for this evening to increase pops across south
central KY over the next couple of hours and to tweak the
temperatures. Most locations west of the I-75 corridor are now at or
below freezing. Have not seen any reports of issues with snow
covered roadways yet, but as temps continue to cool this could
become a problem. Will keep the SPS for now across the western
portion of the forecast area, but we are watching an area of more
moderate snow moving into southern IN. Models continue to suggest
snow will diminish over the next couple of hours, but should it
persist and begin to accumulate, will reevaluate the the need for
expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

...Winter Weather Advisory Late This Afternoon - Tuesday Evening...

Have a healthy slug of snow moving into our northwest forecast area
this hour. Upstream reports have been of ligth to moderate snow, but
no significant accumulations.  After further coordination with
surrounding offices, will continue the current advisory in our
eastern half but a SPS for point west, as the snow falls during the
evening rush. Did extend a few counties west on our southern end to
match up better with OHX for their advisory tonight.

Chances for snow showers will continue overnight and into Tuesday.
Road temperatures should fall overnight, thus any showers that do
fall should accumulate on untreated roadways. Temperatures should
stay in the 20s Tuesday and bottom out in the teens Tuesday night.
Still have accumulations through 00Z Wednesday at 2-3 inches over
the Bluegrass and around an inch in the western part of the current
advisory area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Cold airmass remains in place Wednesday, with snow showers tapering
off from west to east through the day. Thursday, the GFS has come on
board with the 00Z Euro cancelling the Thursday clipper system
affecting our area. However, now the NAM and Canadian are showing it
that early. The 09Z SREF has a weak signal for it as well, but in
general it leans more toward the GFS/Euro solution. With some signal
for it in a few models, will keep pops just under slight chance, in
line with previous forecast.

For Friday, the Euro and GEM continue with their wetter solution
over our northern forecast area, whereas the GFS has now gone dry.
Will go with the blended model solution here, keeping in some lower-
end chances for precip for now. Continuing this thinking, our
weekend should be well below normal for temperatures until high
pressure can get off to our east to start the next work week. Model
divergence here means a continued call for a model blend, as the GFS
comes in with another front and a large moisture field Monday,
whereas the 00Z Euro does not have as much moisture.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2016

Snow shower activity continues early this morning around an upper
low spinning over the Midwest.  Generally MVFR conditions exist at
all TAF sites in the snow showery regime. The heaviest snow shower
activity was noted near the BWG/LEX terminals as of 515Z so did add
a tempo group as bursts of snow may result in vsbys dropping to IFR
during the early morning hours.  Think that snow shower activity
should lighten up or lessen in areal coverage between 9-15Z across
the TAF sites according to the latest model data.  However, models
have been under-doing intensity and coverage of snow showers so far
so did leave VC snow showers in through the morning hours with MVFR
cigs continuing.  By mid to late afternoon, snow shower activity is
expected to pick up in coverage and intensity.  Went with MVFR
conditions with this later TAF period, but IFR will certainly be
possible in the heavier snow showers late this afternoon/evening.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening
     for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.



Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
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