Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 301050
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

...Lower humidity levels Memorial Day-Tuesday...

Well...storms are moving out of the eastern CWA where a very slow
moving frontal boundary is elongated.  Some of the high resolution
models have been trying to develop isolated storms across the
eastern CWA overnight.  Right now planning on a dry forecast come
forecast issuance time and will be monitoring radar trends.

Temp to dew point spreads are minimal across the Bluegrass into Lake
Cumberland. Will add some fog across the east thru 13z and see what
it looks like on web cams and micro and mesoanalysis before press
time too.

Memorial Day looks to be warm and dry with lots of cerulean skies.
Temperatures overachieved on Sunday and will be similar today, BUT
dew points will be 5-7 degrees lower. Highs will top out 85 to 90.
Dry weather will continue Monday night with lows in the lower to mid
60s. Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with strong deep vertical
mixing with the atmosphere recovering today and Tuesday from an
early radiation inversion and increasing to nearly dry adiabatic to
8k` during the afternoon. This will bring down drier air and allow
temps to get into the upper 80s and have lowered afternoon dew
points.

Don`t forget to remember those fallen veterans on Memorial Day as
well as the folks devastated by a EF3 tornado on May 30, 2004 in
Marengo, IN.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

...Unsettled pattern Wed Night thru Sat...
...Upper trough for weekend with drier humidity levels...

Wednesday...

Well...high pressure will still keep the precip from the cold front
to the west. A couple of isolated storms could get into far western
CWA late Wednesday.  Coordinated with PAH and IND on delaying most
of the precip except in the western tier or two of counties.

The main question will be how hot it will get. Some of the guidance
continues to suggest a high of 90 at SDF on Wednesday. However,
increasing clouds may work against temps getting that high. For now
will go with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region.

Wed Night to Fri Night...

Rain chances will be on the increase late Wednesday evening into
overnight as a cold front approaches the area. This front will
continue to slowly sink south and east Thursday into Thursday night.
The best shot at showers and storms looks to be during the day
Thursday.  Continued the theme of 50-60 POPS on Thu but this will be
dependent on how the front swings thru and at what time of day.
However, even with this system, the threat of severe storms looks
low.  If the front stalls out across srn KY as the ECM and GFS
suggest, heavy rainfall could be an issue.

The stalled front may form a wave on it and ride back north bringing
more storm chances to the area, especially depending on how it
interacts with upper low over the Lone Star State.

With large scale ridge over the Rockies and Bitterroots, NW flow will
set up with Great Lakes trough.  This will reinforce CAA from
Canada.  Cloud cover may keep temps cooler too, but that is in the
deep extended and will follow superblend.

The front looks to stall just south of the KY/TN border on
Friday/Friday night with lingering storm chances across south
central KY. This precipitation should move out by Saturday morning
with a dry start to the weekend. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will be a bit cooler in the wake of the front. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure moving in today will keep winds light and VFR skies
partly cloudy for the TAF period. A little bit of MVFR BR will be
possible at BWG/LEX during the first hour or so.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JDG
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........13


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