


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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609 FXUS63 KLMK 131946 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 346 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and storms, some strong with isolated severe is expected later this evening with potential for locally heavy rain, and strong gusty winds. * Potential for a few pockets of heavy rainfall with 2-3+" across southwest Indiana by late evening, particularly Dubois, Orange, and Perry counties. Some flooding concerns could develop. * Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more scattered rain and storm chances each day. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The main focus for the short term will be the potential development of showers and possible strong storms later this evening and overnight. While current conditions of temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s have allowed for the atmosphere to destabilize with around 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, we lack a trigger to get any widespread activity to fire this afternoon and early evening. While a few isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon and early evening, our best chance looks to be later this evening and overnight. Mid-level shortwave trough axis is orientate SW to NE, stretching from the Ozarks up into eastern IA and central WI. Ahead of this feature we have a convective complex over southern IL, with additional activity stretching into the bootheel of MO and long the Lower MS Valley. This trough axis will slowly move eastward tonight and across the Ohio Valley early tomorrow morning. Additional development is expected as a LLJ increases along the Ohio River later this evening and overnight. Shear remain weak, but we could see 20-25kts of 0-6km shear which allow for a little more organization and MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. PWAT values will surge to above 2.00" making the main threat with these storms gusty damaging winds with localized flash flooding thanks the very deep moisture column. Current thinking is that the best chance for these stronger storms and heavy rainfall is along the Ohio River and northward from north central KY into IN. This is in line with both the WPC slight risk for Excessive Rainfall and the SPC Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms in their day 1 outlooks. Trough axis works to the east tomorrow as a weak quasi-stationary sfc boundary sags southward towards the Ohio River to start the work week. This will continue to keep us in the the very warm and muggy airmass we`ve been dealing with for the past several days. Placement of the boundary and afternoon destabilization will once again allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day. Heavy rain, lightning along with gusty winds are the main threat with the severe threat lower than the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The weather pattern through the rest of the week remains stagnant with more of the same. We will remain under the influence of weak ridging aloft along with continued moist and very warm airmass. Highs each day will be in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s, this will feature diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. The threat of severe storms remains low, gusty winds, lightning and torrential rainfall remain the main threats. A few weak mid-level systems will pass to our north over the Great Lakes Wed/Thu and Thu/Fri. This looks to give us an increased coverage in precipitation for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 After a stubborn low stratus deck from HNB/SDF skies have been able to mix out mostly. We continue to see HNB bounce from MVFR to VFR under the scattered Cu deck around 2500-3500 Ft. A weak approaching system around the bootheel of MO could become more organized and spread some showers/storms into the area later this evening. Some of these storms could be strong to isolated severe for locations like BWG. We may see a few other waves of storms and showers work across later tonight into tomorrow morning but overall confidence is low on timing and placement. We will also see a few location drop down to MVFR as another low stratus layer moves in tomorrow morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN