Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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786
FXUS63 KLMK 211716
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
116 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Temperatures have gotten off to a slow start this morning, but some
recovery is still expected this afternoon as a few breaks in the
clouds allow in a bit of late May sunshine. Still, with temperatures
still only in the upper 50s at 11am over southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky, went ahead and dropped MaxT a couple of degrees in
those areas where there has been the most drizzle/rain/fog/low cloud
this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Most of the rain has moved out of the area tonight. However, some
patches of drizzle and/or very light rain can be expected through
the remainder of the overnight hours. Some patchy fog will be
possible as well with very saturated low levels of the atmosphere.
However, fog is not expected to be widespread as low stratus has
developed.

Through the day today, an upper level trough will swing through the
region. As it does, showers will develop once again. The best chance
for rain still looks to be across portions of southern IN and the
Bluegrass region of KY. A few lightning strikes will be possible as
well as cooler air aloft steepen lapse rates. However, given the
fairly isolated nature of any lightning, will not mention it in the
forecast at this point.

Showers will move out this afternoon into the early evening hours
as the trough axis shifts eastward. The trough will stall out along
the eastern seaboard on Sunday and deepen a bit. Some models suggest
it will stay close enough to bring some showers to far east central
KY on Sunday. This may be overdone, however, and  this area will
probably just see increased cloud cover. Therefore, kept the entire
area dry on Sunday.

Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, topping out in
the upper 60s to around 70. Sunday should be warmer with highs in
the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The next work week will begin with a much needed dry couple of days.
Ridging will build in aloft with high pressure at the surface slowly
sliding through. Winds will shift to southerly and more warm and
humid air will begin to advect back in. Highs on Monday will top
outin the mid to upper 70s with Tuesday`s highs peaking in the low
to mid 80s.

The dry weather will not last, however, as we transition back to a
more active weather pattern for the latter half of the work week.
The ridging aloft will flatten out and multiple disturbances will
move through the upper level flow. This will bring rounds of showers
and thunderstorms to region from Tuesday night through the end of
the week. More humid weather will continue through this time frame
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and high temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible at times as well. However, times for any stronger storms
are difficult to pinpoint in this type of regime this far out.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

A weak surface trof along the Ohio River at the beginning of the TAF
period will sink southward this afternoon accompanied by patchy
light rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest. Low ceilings
should slowly lift as the afternoon progresses, but will stay sub-
VFR until 21/22Z.

Skies will clear out early this evening and remain clear overnight.
The clear skies, plus very light winds and a soaked ground, raise
the question of fog. Right now it looks like dry air advecting in
will keep dew point depressions large enough to preclude widespread
fog. Can`t rule out some valley fog by sunrise, though, and there`s
still a chance of some MIFG/BCFG at notoriously fog-prone BWG. For
now will leave things VFR.

Sunday will be a pleasant flying day as high pressure enters the
region from the northwest. Winds could get a little gusty at SDF in
the afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13



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