Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 301928
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE
SUN LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
IS ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT
INSTABILITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REAMINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........MEFFERT



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