Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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467
FXUS63 KLMK 301652
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1152 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording and adjust POPs
downward.  Isolated rain showers may linger in east central KY
through much of the day. A strong mid level trough passing through
will bring an increase in clouds this afternoon as well as usher in
a colder airmass.

Issued at 745 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Expect the thin band of fog right behind the precip line to persist
through mid morning, thus added that to the forecast.  A few isld
spots of dense fog may be present.

Issued at 520 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Moisture plume is being shunted eastward a bit more quickly than
previously advertised, but upper trofiness and SW mid-level flow may
cause a few starts and stops in that process. Will update shortly to
pull remaining POPs out of the I-65 corridor, but still think it
will take its time exiting the Bluegrass region as the moisture feed
is nearly parallel to the mid-level flow. Still should be dry all
the way to the Cumberland Escarpment by early afternoon.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Fairly widespread showers continue along and east of I-65, as part
of an extensive area of precip that runs from Mississippi all the
way into the Upper Ohio Valley. Never did get enough of a northward
surge of warm/moist air to bring strong convection into Kentucky,
but beneficial rains continue over some of the worst drought areas.

Main challenge in the short-term will be timing the exit of the
ongoing precip. Expect it to end from west to east, but it will be a
slow process as deep SW flow and moisture transport will continue
well into the day. Will hang on to at least small POPs until around
midday, when the low-level flow becomes westerly enough to dry out.
Clouds will be slower to clear out as the upper trof axis doesn`t
swing through until later in the afternoon. Temps will be above
normal due to an unseasonably mild start, but don`t expect them to
rise much during the day.

Skies clear for tonight and Thursday, but falling heights and a deep
W-NW flow will knock temps back to near climo.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Even with a closed low over the Great Lakes, upper flow is quite
zonal over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. Expect dry weather, but
at least partial cloud cover across Indiana and north central
Kentucky due to being closer to the cyclonically curved flow. Temps
will run a few degrees below normal for early December.

Pattern becomes more active again late in the weekend and into early
next week, as shortwave energy starts ejecting out of a deep upper
low over the Mexican desert. Models diverge on the timing and impact
of these impulses, and nighttime temps become problematic from a
precip type standpoint, especially Sunday morning. However, the wet
model solutions have kept temps just above freezing and the
soundings do not point strongly to snow. With that and collaboration
with IND, have kept us just warm enough to be all rain.

Sunday is the best bet for precip, and we`ll carry generally 50-60%
POPs, but beyond that confidence is too low to try and time wet or
dry periods. Will go with mainly 20-30 POPs for the remainder of the
extended, with the caveat that there will be intervals of rain over
those days, but not enough confidence to pinpoint which periods they
will fall in. Will see temps below climo on Sunday, but recovering
to solidly above normal by Tuesday thanks to breaks in the precip
and low-level warm advection developing as the upper system reaches
the Gulf Coast.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Axis of heavy rainfall has shifted eastward into the coalfields of
eastern Kentucky.  Low cloudiness is expected at the terminals this
morning with clearing taking place later this afternoon from west to
east.  Winds will remain out of the south this morning and then
shift to the southwest and west during the afternoon hours. Ceilings
this afternoon look to be above VFR thresholds.  Winds may be gusty
at times but will slacken off toward the evening hours.


&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RAS/AMS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...MJ



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