Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 140528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
128 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Put some patchy dense fog in the most fog prone areas with this
evening`s update.  The signal for dense fog is there although with
the sfc high center and upper ridge drifting farther to the ESE and
also a slightly drier low level atmosphere, fog expanse or density
may be a bit more limited tonight compared to last night and this
morning.  Still feel there is enough of a patchy dense fog signal
there to add to the forecast and include a mention in the HWO.


.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2017

Skies have mostly cleared out this afternoon, with just a few clouds
showing up on satellite in the Bluegrass region. Temperatures have
climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will remain
in place at the surface and aloft tonight. These will then begin to
shift eastward on Saturday as a trough and associated low pressure
system swing across the Plains and approach the forecast area on
Saturday night.

Dry and warming weather is expected through this time frame. For
tonight temperatures will fall into the 50s under the mostly clear
skies with light winds. Some patchy fog development is expected
again tonight. Once any fog dissipates Saturday, warm weather and
partly cloudy skies are in store with highs in the low 80s. Cloud
cover will be on the increase Friday night as the low pressure
system and its cold front approach. Southerly winds will keep
temperatures mild overnight, only dropping into the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The long term period will start out with a strong cold front just to
the west of our southern IN counties. This front will cross the
region through the day, making it to around the Ohio River by mid to
late morning and move off to the east by late afternoon or early
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front
Saturday night, but should be weakening by Sunday morning as the
front moves into the region. They will become more scattered in
nature across southern IN and areas along the Ohio River on Sunday
morning. Better coverage is then expected again in the afternoon
across east central KY. Soundings do show a bit of elevated
instability, so will keep the mention of isolated thunderstorms in
the forecast, but severe weather is not expected at this time.

Behind the front winds will become gusty with sustained winds out of
the west to northwest at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Temperatures will be tricky as much cooler air will be quickly
moving in behind the front. Temperatures will initially rise on
Sunday but will begin quickly falling again in the afternoon behind
the front. Lows Sunday night will drop into the 40s by daybreak.

Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the long term
period. The lowest temperatures of the period will be Monday and
Monday night with highs on Monday topping out in the low 60s and
lows Monday night dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some
isolated frost may be possible in sheltered locations. We will then
see a slow warming trend for the rest of the week back into the
low to mid 70s.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Visibilities have not dropped as quick as this time last night, and
part of the reason may be slightly stronger mixing just above the
surface. Have trended more optimistic with the vsby forecast for
early this morning. Winds will pick up from the south later this
morning and we could see some gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Also cannot rule out a few low clouds developing as these south
winds bring in more moisture. For now have kept cloud cover VFR.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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