Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Only concern this morning will be patchy frost formation. Latest obs
show temperatures already in the upper 30s and low 40s in most
spots, and the Blue Grass hanging in the mid 40s due to lingering
stratocu and light winds. For the most part, the typical cool spots
seem to be dropping in the upper 30s, so will not change ongoing SPS
for patchy frost.

Dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure will dominate the
pattern for the weekend. This will bring dry conditions with below
normal temperatures today and tonight. Look for highs in the upper
50s East and low 60s West. Tonight`s lows should mostly be in the
low to mid 40s. By Sunday, the return of southerly flow ahead of the
next week system will allow for temps to rise back above normal by
around 5 degrees, putting readings solidly in the low 70s. A few mid
70s are possible in our far west. Also of note, expect steady SW
winds between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts up around 25 to 30 mph at
times on Sunday afternoon.

.Long Term (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Dry NW flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will dominate the
early to mid week pattern after a dry cold front passage on Sunday
night. Expect a continued dry period with high temperatures around
normal (~65 to 70) on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures
will rise around 5 to 8 degrees above normal with the aid of
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system. Lows in the upper 40s
to around 50 are expected on Sunday night, but the coldest will be
Monday night under good radiational cooling conditions. Look for 40
to 45. We`ll see ranges back in the 45 to 50 range by Tuesday night.

Wednesday Evening - Thursday...

Next chance for rain arrives during the mid to late week as a
shortwave and its associated surface system move out of the Plains
and toward the Great Lakes region. Prefer the more progressive
solution offered by the ECMWF/CMC/GFS Ensemble Mean which brings
scattered showers into the area mainly overnight Wednesday night
through the first half of Thursday. Will linger chances in the east
later Thursday, but expect to be dry again by Thursday night. Will
note the the GFS solution closes off the system, and then cuts it
off from the upper flow over the Gulf Coast states, which would keep
rain chances in through the end of the week. Again, do not prefer
this solution as it is not supported by other deterministic or
ensemble means.

Expect milder lows in the 50s on Wednesday night. Highs will be a
bit cooler on Thursday with the cold front passing through. Look for
mid to upper 60s in most spots, with a few low 70s south.

Thursday Night - Friday...

We return to dry NW flow aloft with high pressure in control at the
surface to end the week. This puts us back in a dry pattern.
Look for lows Thursday night in the upper 40s, with highs Friday in
the upper 65 to 70 range.


.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will continue to build into the area from the west
today. Winds today will be much lighter than yesterday at 6-8 knots
and out of the NW to WNW. Winds will become light and variable
tonight as the high pressure moves through. The remaining clouds
will shift eastward with mostly clear skies expected from mid
morning through the end of the forecast period.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
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