Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
937 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Mostly clear skies were noted across the region tonight.  Just had a
few high clouds moving northward over the east-central/Bluegrass
region.  Temperatures had cooled into the upper 60s in some spots
with mostly lower 70s elsewhere.  We`ll see some patchy fog
development again overnight in the typical fog-prone areas.  Current
forecast has all the elements well handled.  We did refresh the
short term grids with current and the latest bias-corrected data for
the overnight period.  New text/digital products have already been


.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide us with
dry, warm weather through Tuesday. Patchy fog can be expected once
again tonight in the usual fog-prone locations under mostly clear
skies with light winds. Lows tonight will be in the 60s, with
temperatures rebounding to around 90 by Tuesday afternoon. The
current forecast calls for high temperatures to be within 1 to 3
degrees of the records for the date.

Tuesday night a cold front will come into the picture from the
northwest, arriving in central Kentucky by Wednesday morning. There
will be very little moisture for the front to work with and ridging
will continue overhead, so no rain is expected Tuesday night. Lows
will again be in the 60s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The front will wash out on Wednesday. There will still be little
moisture to work with with the ridging overhead, but there will be
an uptick in RH in the 750-950mb layer, so will give a nod to model
solutions that show a bit of precipitation and will continue to
carry a 20% PoP. GEFS mean precipitation is only 0.02" at
Louisville, with the farthest outlier perturbation only coming up
with 0.07". So, it seems that most folks should still stay dry on

Although an upper low will swing through the Great Lakes Friday-
Saturday, most of the long term will be characterized by surface
high pressure and dry weather. The surface high will be Canadian in
origin and combined with lower thicknesses cooler temperatures can
be anticipated. Some locations, especially in the Blue Grass, may
not get out of the 60s on Saturday.

Models have been unsure about Monday, but some runs have suggested a
chance of showers that day ahead of an upper trof over the Plains.
The previous run of the EC was the more enthusiastic of the
solutions, but the more recent run has backed off. The EPS shows
only a 20% chance of measurable rain Monday. So, after coordinating
with IND, will keep PoPs very low.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

High pressure will remain in control of the weather over the region
for the upcoming TAF period.  We`ll see some high clouds passing
through, but these will not affect aviation interests.  Patchy to
locally dense fog will be possible again at some of the TAF sites
(mainly KBWG and KHNB) before sunrise.  The fog will quickly mix out
and VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday.  Winds are forecast to
remain light and variable through the period.




Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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