Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 220700
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
Cooler temperatures and dry weather are in store for the start of
fall today into tomorrow. Early this morning an upper level trough
will swing across the region. An area of clouds associated with this
trough looks to clip portions of southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. These clouds should move out fairly early this morning
with mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day.
Surface high pressure will build in through the period keeping
things dry and skies mostly clear.
With a colder airmass continuing to build in today, temperatures
will top out only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will be
quite chilly with lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s. Some of
the typically cooler spots in north central KY and southern IN could
bottom out right around 40. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs
in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
Ridging aloft should stick around most of this period, save for
perhaps Sunday, when both the new GFS and the 12Z Euro have an upper
low crossing the region. The source is different for each model,
with the GFS version to our west, and thus having a better shot at
rains. Given how this rain was in for Saturday`s forecast at this
point yesterday, confidence is pretty low for rains on Sunday.
Blended model forecast keeps in slight chances, as per previous
forecaster, so will keep those in for now.
Temperatures will stay near normal for highs and a little below for
lows Wednesday and Thursday morning, then go to near or just above
normal for lows the rest of the period.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014
A reinforcing upper level disturbance will swing across the area
through the rest of the night bringing a few to scattered clouds to
SDF and LEX. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear across the region
today as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will be out of
the north shifting to NNE today. Speeds will generally be around 5-8
knots overnight and through the day. With the high pressure moving
in tonight, they will decrease to 4 knots or less.