Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
134 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 913 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Afternoon convection has ceased with the loss of daytime heating.
We`ll see some partly cloudy skies this evening with skies going
mostly clear overnight.  It will be mild overnight with lows in the
70s.  Current forecast remains in good shape.  Some slight edits to
the hourly T/Td elements were done to bring forecast close to
current observations.  Updated products and grids are already out.


.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The weak surface boundary is still draped across southern IN this
afternoon near the Ohio River. Satellite images this afternoon show
the cu field that has developed along this boundary. A few showers
have begun to develop along this boundary. Isolated showers and
storms will continue to be possible across southern IN and portions
of central KY along this boundary this afternoon. Any that do
develop should dissipate early this evening.

Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the short term
period as upper level ridging slowly builds eastward. Highs tomorrow
will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s with maximum heat index
values in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will range from the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The upper level ridge will continue to build in through the first
portion of the long term period. The heat will be the concern for
Thursday and Friday as highs rise into the lower to mid 90s. Heat
index values will top out each afternoon in the upper 90s to lower

Going into the weekend, the upper level ridge will start to flatten
out and a cold front will begin to sink southward. Towards the end
of the weekend and into early next work week, a trough will work its
way into the upper Midwest and northeastern CONUS.

Precipitation chances will increase this weekend with the approach
of the front and the flattening of the ridge. A few spots in the
Bluegrass may see some storms on Friday, but most will remain dry.
After days of trending drier, models are now trending wetter into
the weekend. This is especially true on Sunday. However, given the
inconsistency over the last few days, will keep pops at 50% or less.
The better chances for rain will continue into Monday as the upper
level trough swings in.

Saturday looks to remain fairly hot with heat index values in the
upper 90s to low 100s again. However, Sunday looks to be a bit
cooler with highs on Monday and Tuesday back into the mid 80s.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The Ohio Valley will remain under the influence of high pressure
today, with prevailing VFR weather and a light wind. Some very light
fog will be possible at BWG from 09-12z, but MVFR is not likely at
this time. Visibility could drop to 6-8 miles.

A northwest wind around 5 kts will develop after 14z, and some
scattered clouds between 10-20 kft may move in from the northwest
after 18z.




Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
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