Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 291911
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014
It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).
The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.
Bowling Green: 53, 1965 58
Frankfort: 50, 1965 55
Louisville: 55, 1965 61
Lexington: 51, 1965 58
Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period. This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.
Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday. Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region. This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches. So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate. Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014
High pressure will build in through this TAF period. Winds will be
out of the northwest at 7-9 knots through the afternoon, becoming
light and variable to calm tonight. They will shift to more westerly
tomorrow. Scattered cu will develop this afternoon and should
dissipate overnight. With high pressure overhead, some light fog
will be possible at BWG and LEX tomorrow morning.