Text Products for AFD Issued by LMK

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLMK 262336
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
736 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   A few rain showers are possible today, with light precipitation
    totals (less than 0.10") generally expected. A stray
    thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times.

*   Rain chances return early next week, but above normal
    temperatures persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently... Along surface troughing, a thin line of showers is
moving through the region. Outside of the showers, there are
scattered to broken mid-level clouds streaming overhead and
temperatures in the upper 60s and mid 70s.


Tonight... As the low pressure system over the central Plains
strengthens and propagates northeastward, pressure gradients will
tighten over the Ohio Valley. The tightening gradients will lead to
breezy sustained winds of 10-14mph and gusting up to 25mph. The warm
front associated with this system will sweep through the region in
the overnight hours, shifting winds to a southerly direction and
allowing weak moisture advection. A 45-50kt LLJ will meander into
the region supporting some light, dissipating showers along and east
of I-65 in the early morning hours. Low temperatures will be in the
low-mid 60s.


Saturday... The low pressure system will quickly move over the Great
Lakes region, pulling most of the precipitation to the north of the
region. Light showers will still be possible until the afternoon
over southern Indiana. Gradient winds will continue to strengthen
bringing breezy winds around 12-15mph and gusting up to 30mph. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy, with some brief breaks towards the late
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s and
low 80s. Dew points will be in the upper 50s and low 60s, rendering
Saturday a muggy day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday night into Sunday continue to look dry as upper level
ridging promotes subsidence aloft and surface fields lack any sort
of lifting mechanism. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will
continue, particularly Sunday afternoon as the lower boundary layer
mixes out. Gusts will likely be in the 20 to 30mph range during the
day.

A slow moving frontal boundary will then begin to push toward the
region on Monday before "fizzling" out with eastward extent. Showers
and perhaps a few storms will be possible near the frontal boundary,
and depending on how slow the frontal boundary progresses,
precipitation could linger into Tuesday. There should be some brief
drying behind the front before more active weather arrives by
midweek ahead of another frontal boundary. We could see a couple
rounds of showers/storms with this particular setup as the frontal
boundary will likely be stalled from the Great Lakes region into the
southern Plains before a shortwave ejects a low into the Plains and
"kicks" everything eastward toward the end of the week. Model
members and their respective ensembles have a bit of spread with the
timing of features and/or rain and storm chances, so confidence in
the forecast details as well as any severe weather potential for
this timeframe remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Things are dry and VFR across the area at this hour, and expect that
to continue through the overnight. Look for mid to high clouds with
some virga also possible at times. Steady to occasionally gusty SE
winds will gradually veer to SSE later tonight. A strong low level
jet around 45 knots at 2 K feet will overspread the region just
before Midnight, and given around 30 degree of directional shear in
addition to the speed shear we are just meeting LLWS criteria.

LLWS diminishes around sunrise with stronger S to SSW wind taking
hold around 10 to 20 mph, occasionally gusting 20 to 30 mph.
Continued mid to high clouds are expected, with perhaps a few
morning very light showers around HNB. Not expecting enough impact,
if at all, to mention attm.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...BJS
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
