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000
FXUS63 KLMK 220748
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Several models showed showers developing near CVG and travelling
southwest early this morning, and now the radar is showing
verification of that potential. These showers are forming in the
right rear quadrant of a weak upper jet, oriented from NNE to SSW.
700 mb winds have some weak convergence as well. This development
will not last long though, as the low-level convergence weakens by
daybreak and the upper jet travels SSW away from the area. Updated
the gridded forecast.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the
Midwest today and Saturday. Low-level thicknesses drop a little for
today, but will keep temperatures within a degree or two of
yesterday. We also should see very isolated storm activity as well
this afternoon, with 5-15 percent coverage. The best chance, because
of  available moisture and instability, would be over southern
Indiana. Precipitable waters come down quite a bit Saturday, so not
expecting any storms then.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Nothing significant changes in our forecast for most of this period
as well. Models are in excellent agreement, having the large ridge
keeping our weather hot and dry. Ensemble model spreads are low,
implying confidence in the forecast. That pattern does look to break
down by the end of the period though, as our ridge gets pushed south
and east by the next trough. Temperatures Thursday should be closer
to normal with better rain chances returning.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure remains in control through this TAF cycle, keeping
things VFR outside of any morning fog issue. Winds will be light or
calm, with any noticeable gradient out of the ENE. Few-Sct cumulus
will develop around 4-5 K feet today.

As far as the morning fog goes, BWG and HNB should see the worst
conditions into the IFR range toward dawn. HNB will likely go below
minimums for a time around sunrise. More optimistic at LEX in the
MVFR range, and right on the VFR/MVFR threshold at SDF toward dawn.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...BJS