Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161933
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
233 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

High pressure centered along the Louisiana Gulf Coast is ridging
across our region this hour, making for somewhat variable winds. A
deck of mid clouds that kept our Bluegrass cloudy this morning is
eroding slowly from the southwest. As the surface ridge heads
eastward we should see more of a southerly component to the winds
tonight. This flow, combined with ridging building in aloft, will
make for a nice mid February warmup. Cloud cover tonight, again in
the Bluegrass, into the morning hours should help us start off
warmer compared to this morning. Then temperatures Friday afternoon
should get up to the 60s for most locations. Cloud cover should
increase late Friday night as an upper low moves to the OK/AR border
by daybreak Saturday. Lows that morning thanks to the cloud cover
and south winds should be in the 40s for most, roughly 15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Near Record Warmth on the Way...

The upper low mentioned above will move to our longitude by Saturday
evening. Some light rain showers are possible during the day as this
feature approaches, with the best chance forecast south of I-64. As
that low heads east, we`ll see ridging replace it, keeping up our
warm weather. GFS continues to output some light precip Sunday, but
the blended model guidance continues to ignore this QPF, as will
this forecast.

That ridging will bring much warmer temperatures for Sunday through
at least Monday evening, with near record highs and warm lows. Have
put those records in a climate section of this discussion below.
Confidence in the warmth is above normal, but there is still some
model discrepancy in the extent of a QPF field on the north side of
a broad upper low forecast to travel over the northern Gulf of
Mexico.  Models have good consensus for locating the center of this
low, locating it 00Z Wed near the TX/LA coast. Will continue with
the previous thinking of capping pops in the chance range. GFS has
quite a bit of precip in a plume across the Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, roughly along a deformation band aloft and a weak surface
trough.

We should cool off a little behind this system for Thursday, but
likely we will stay above normal.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

A mid deck of clouds is shifting east of LEX at the time of this
writing. Otherwise, mainly cirrus will drift across the terminals.
SW winds this afternoon will shift to southerly by this evening.
LLWS is a concern overnight with a strong inversion around 1000-1500
ft. AGL combined with a 40 knot low level jet. Will mention until
just after daybreak. SSW winds pick up again by mid morning Friday.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days

Louisville:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...BJS
Climate...RJS



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