Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 300510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
110 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Large upper low appears to be centered just south of Louisville as
per latest water vapor imagery. Not that much moisture underneath
this low, with precipitable waters under an inch, but we do have some
weak scattered showers rotating around the region. Expect the low to
wobble around central Kentucky tonight. The consensus of the global
models and the high-res models show the low drifting into southern
Indiana during the day Friday and then into central Indiana by early

Better moisture being transported up the east side of the state
should rotate around the low during this short term period,
providing some enhancements to rain chances (QUADRANTS?????)

Cloud cover for most of the period should keep temperatures below
normal for highs and a little below normal for lows.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Forecast confidence continuing to increase in the upper low starting
to accelerate northeastward Saturday and Sunday and then stalling
again over the northeast states Monday. That should mean one last
good shot at rain Saturday. A few models linger some rain chances
into Sunday as well though. The GFS even tries to linger it to
Monday, but with very little QPF. As I did yesterday, will maintain
dry pops for now and wait to see how models trend for Monday.

After that ridging is forecast to move across the region, as we get
squeezed in between a low over the Northern Plains and a possible
tropical system off the U.S. East Coast. That should mean dry
conditions and a warm up to above normal for the midweek. Thursday
may stop that warm up though depending on how quickly that low moves
in from the northwest.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Closed upper level low will continue to spin over the region through
the upcoming TAF period.  Ceilings and visibility overnight will be
the main forecast challenge.  KSDF will likely see rain showers
overnight as a batch of showers moves westward into the metro area.
Ceilings will start off VFR but look to drop into the MVFR range
with a possible drop into IFR toward dawn.  Ceilings may lift a
little during the morning hours but remain in the MVFR range.

Over at KLEX, rain showers will continue to move away from the
terminal, but low clouds and fog will remain the issue for night.
Plan on going with MVFR cigs/vsbys with a drop to IFR ceilings
around 30/09-11Z.  Some improvement will be see after sunrise.

Down at KBWG, rain showers should remain north of the terminal
overnight so low clouds and fog development will be the primary
concern.  MVFR conditions will start off the period with a drop into
IFR in the 30/08-12Z time frame with some improvement after sunrise.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
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