Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 011340
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 935 AM EDT Mon June 1 2015

First wave of stratiform rain pushing east/northeast into central
and northern Kentucky this morning, with more scattered showers
southwest of I-65. Forecast largely on track with the highest POPs
this morning, then tapering to slight chances this afternoon as the
main upper wave pushes out. Kept isolated thunder mention in the
far south as that area stands the greater chance to break out and
build some instability. Steady north/northeast flow is keeping
temperatures held down in the mid/upper 50s. Have lowered highs a
few more degrees, especially in the north and east where
clouds/precip will hold on the longest.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a well defined mid level wave
over southeast MO/northern AR. This wave will move eastward slowly
today. It will eventually stall out and become a cutoff low centered
over central TN by Tuesday morning and will move very little through
the day Tuesday. At the surface a weak area of low pressure will
move through the Lake Cumberland region today. Across the rest of
the region northerly winds will continue through tomorrow.

For this morning through the mid afternoon, an area of showers will
move in from the southwest. These light to moderate showers will
move northeast, mainly across central Kentucky. Precipitable water
values will be fairly high with this rain, in the 1.5-1.6 inch
range. There could be some ponding of water with areas that get the
most rain today, but do not expect any widespread flooding problems.
Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well, with the best
chance in the Lake Cumberland region. High resolution models have
the rain moving off to the northeast through the afternoon hours
with just isolated showers left into the evening.

Tonight should be mostly dry after the precipitation moves out. For
tomorrow, another weak surface wave will pass through the Lake
Cumberland region. This area stands the best chance to see some
showers tomorrow. These should be fairly light with coverage more
isolated to scattered than the precipitation for today.

Temperatures will be cool today with highs in the 60s in most
locations, with the exception of the far southeast. Lows tonight
will range from the mid to upper 50s. With less precipitation and
cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures will be somewhat warmer, despite
the continued northerly winds. Highs look to be in the lower to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2015

The global models continue to show better forecast convergence for
the extended period.  In general, the upper level pattern looks to
remain rather amplified through the period with another large scale
trough developing in the west, while a cut off low meanders over the
eastern US.  With the our area in close proximity to the upper level
low, it is likely that we`ll see more cloudiness and cooler than
normal temperatures through the upcoming period.  Precipitation
chances will also be a little higher than climo through the period.
By the end of the week, the upper level low over the TN valley is
forecast to push off to the east, while another mid-level wave drops
in from the northwest.  This looks to bring another round of
precipitation to the region for the upcoming weekend.

In terms of sensible weather, we expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies during the day and night through much of the early to later
half of the week.  Scattered afternoon/evening convection looks
likely especially with the upper-level low close by.  The most
favored area looks to be across our central and southeastern areas.
Temperatures should start off in the upper 70s to the around 80 and
gradually warm into the lower-middle 80s from mid-week and beyond.

As the upper low pulls out, the next wave will drop down from the
northwest and likely bring more convection to the region.  Coverage
looks to be a bit more as the model blends have trended a bit wetter
in the latest runs.  For now, plan on keeping 30-40% coverage going,
but this may need to be increased in future forecasts.  Highs for
the weekend look to be in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 630 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Fairly widespread light to moderate rain showers will continue into
the early afternoon across the region. The showers will become more
scattered in nature through the afternoon and move out. Ample low
level moisture will remain in place across the region through the
TAF period. Guidance suggests ceilings at BWG and LEX will remain
IFR for much of the morning hours. Think there could be some
improvement by the afternoon. However, ceilings will lower once
again tonight as light fog develops. Ceilings at SDF have remained a
bit higher in the low end MVFR range. Could see cigs drop to IFR at
SDF over the next few hours, but confidence on this remains below
average. Winds today will be out of the north to northeast and
remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





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