Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 020515
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1215 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
.Short Term...(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
A quiet end to the work week is in store as sfc high pressure
remains in control of the region. Some lower clouds may linger over
southern IN and northern KY tonight with low temperatures expected
in the upper 20s/lower 30s.
Friday will be partly cloudy and seasonably cool. Expect highs to
top out in the low to mid 40s over southern IN/northern KY and upper
40s/lower 50s over southern KY. Fri night clouds will be on the
increase late in the overnight period ahead of the next weather
system. Lows look to range through the upper 20s/lower 30s.
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
...More Rounds of Rainfall Expected and Turning Sharply Colder by
Saturday - Sunday Night...
A mid level shortwave will bring light precipitation to the region
Sat night-Sun night. Temp profiles indicate that precip will mainly
be rain but a light wintry mix is possible Sat night into early Sun
morning mainly over southern IN and along and north of the parkways
in KY. Temps will quickly warm after sunrise Sun changing any light
precip to all rain. No wintry accumulations are expected Sat night.
Sun and Sun night a light rain will continue over the region
becoming very light or ending in some areas Sun night.
Temps for the weekend look to range in the 40s for highs and 30s for
Monday - Thursday...
The weather pattern remains active into early next week as low
pressure system moves NE from the southern U.S. into the Ohio
Valley. Long range models still vary quite a bit on the exact track
of this low and timing but the general consensus is for rain to push
into the region from the south on Monday. If the 12Z GFS ensembles
play out, we`ll likely see a slight chance for some t-storms Mon
night in addition to a widespread 0.5-1 inch of rainfall.
Precipitation does look to move east and out of the area on Tues.
Some light rainfall may linger over the region in low clouds Wed
with the 0Z ECMWF indicating another weather system for Thu.
Forecast confidence drops off for Wed/Thu as long range models
differ greatly on when/if a second shot of good rain will arrive and
when a significantly colder airmass (highs in the upper 20s-mid 30s)
will arrive. The GFS is a drier soln with colder air into the Ohio
Valley as soon as Wed. The ECMWF is a wetter soln with the colder
air delayed until Thu.
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1210 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
High pressure building in across the lower OH and TN valleys will
provide generally west winds through the period. A stream of higher
moisture across southern Indiana and southwest Ohio will brush
SDF/LEX during the late morning and afternoon hours. Expect a
scattered cu deck with bases 3-5 kft to develop and last
through the evening hours.