Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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364
FXUS63 KLMK 222315
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
715 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

...Hot, Humid, and Unsettled Weather for the Weekend...

Models have a little better handle on the initialization today when
compared to this time yesterday, but not by much. Cloud cover has
helped to short circuit much of today`s heat, though breaks by mid
to late afternoon may yet boost heat indices up to around 100,
perhaps higher depending on the length of heating remaining. SDF,
under cloud cover all morning and early afternoon, still has made it
to 89...so any sunshine should boost us at least into the lower 90s.
Storms the rest of this afternoon are possible in the hottest areas
now, over southern KY as well as our Bluegrass counties. Later
development could be along differential heating boundaries in the
north, where those breaks of sunshine allow temperatures to rise
faster.

Coverage should die down by late evening, given loss of heating. QPF
fields are arguing for drier conditions tomorrow, bringing a promise
of hotter temperatures. The main reason for the lack of convection
would be a lack of boundaries in the region. Precipitable waters
should be in the 1.7-1.9 inch range. The flow aloft by Saturday
would argue against us getting another system from the north, with
the flow a little more zonal (and weaker). So a continued heat
advisory looks good.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Sunday`s forecast has trended drier with a ridge axis right over the
region, extending in from the west. With that dryness would mean
another day of hot temperatures. Not certain I want to fall for the
dry forecast completely, given this is the first set of model runs
showing this change. We could extend the Heat Advisory another day,
but given it`s only an advisory, would prefer to wait and make sure
this trend continues before pulling that trigger.

Monday still looks to have better rain chances, as a trough comes in
and forces the ridge back to the west and south. Timing of storm
development looks to be later in the day though, so heat may still
be a problem initially. I would imagine if the Heat Advisory is
extended by this time tomorrow, it would run through Monday.

As for Tuesday on, guidance has trended back to a slower push for
Monday`s front, now leaving the moisture in the region the rest of
the week. Have gone a little under the SuperBlend guidance here,
again as this is the start of a trend in that forecast. Temperatures
should moderate both because of the better rain chances and because
of the lower thicknesses with the ridge forecast to stay west of
here.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Convection will wane this evening and shouldn`t affect the TAF sites
anyway, resulting in a dry night. Some MVFR fog will once again be
possible at all sites, particularly LEX and BWG.  Saturday will
feature diurnal cu developing once again with a few passing mid/high
clouds and generally light southerly winds. Scattered afternoon
storms will once again be possible, especially at BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>034-
     038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13



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