Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211029

629 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers have moved into southern IN
this morning along a prefrontal trough. A more organized area of
thunderstorms continues to drop to the south just west of the
forecast area. This may graze some of the far western counties in
the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Made some
adjustments to pops based on the current and expected trends. Mainly
lowered pops across southern IN after 12Z as the latest high res
models suggest this area will not see much redevelopment as the
actual front moves through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region this morning
and early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible today. Will continue to just mention showers in the TAFs
since thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature. Winds ahead of
the front will be from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
west and then northwest as the front moves through. Wind speeds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts in the the 17-20 knot range
through the afternoon hours. Skies will become mostly clear tonight
with winds out of the northwest around 5-7 knots.




Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
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