Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 262001
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014
High pressure centered over the Carolina coast will give us another
dry and quiet night tonight. Clouds will be on the increase and
there will be some weak return flow, so patchy fog is less likely
than it was this morning. Lows will mostly be in the middle and
upper 30s...cooler in the eastern valleys, still.
Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and heading up the Saint
Lawrence Valley will sweep a weakening cold front toward us on
Saturday and through the region Saturday night. Light rain will
come in from the west by Saturday afternoon and become widespread
by evening. Rainfall amounts by Sunday morning should be on the
order of a quarter to half an inch.
Though clouds and rain will temper the potential warmth ahead of the
cold front tomorrow, we will still be able to see highs in the 50s.
Lows Saturday night should range from the middle 30s in west central
Kentucky to the middle 40s around Lake Cumberland, though that will
be dependent on when exactly the front moves through.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014
By Sunday morning the cold front associated with the departing low
pressure system should be through the forecast area. However,
precipitation looks to still be ongoing behind the front. A
disturbance will ride northeast along this boundary through the day
enhancing precip chances, especially across the eastern half of the
forecast area. Rain will gradually taper off overnight Sunday night
into Monday morning.
Despite precipitation continuing behind the front, do not think at
this time we will have much of a chance to see a wintry mix.
Temperatures look to hold fairly steady in the upper 30s to the mid
40s through the day on Sunday. Most precip looks to move out ahead
of the deeper cold air overnight. Have therefore kept the forecast
From Tuesday through Thursday high pressure will build in from the
west at the surface. Aloft the flow will remain mainly zonal. This
will lead to a dry period. Temperatures will be below normal for
this time of year with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.
Wednesday morning still looks to be the coldest of the bunch with
some areas dropping into the teens.
The next chance for precipitation will come Thursday night into
Friday as a system moves in from the southwest. With this type of
system the models will likely waffle over the coming days with the
placement of the low pressure. This will impact p-type as the low
crosses the Ohio Valley. For now it looks like we could start out
with a wintry mix Thursday night transitioning to rain on Friday.
This system will therefore need to be watched closely in the coming
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1154 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2014
High pressure over the Carolinas will provide us with pleasant
weather for much of this TAF period. Flying conditions will be VFR
with southerly breezes of 5-10 knots through tonight.
On Saturday a weakening cold front will approach from the west,
spreading clouds and light rain into central Kentucky by afternoon.
Will keep conditions low-end VFR for now, though there are some
indications that ceilings may go MVFR by late afternoon.