Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 010713
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 1 2016

After a day of mostly rain showers with a few thunderstorms
yesterday, convection has picked back up tonight as a shortwave
crosses the region. This disturbance will move off to the northeast
during the early morning hours and storms are expected to decrease
by around sunrise. A few strong storms will be possible before this
activity moves out with hail and gusty winds being the primary
concern.

We should see a mostly dry period through much of the morning in the
wake of this morning`s convection. This should allow temperatures to
warm nicely into the 70s to around 80. For the afternoon into the
evening hours, another shortwave will move into the lower Ohio
Valley. A weak surface low will track across IN with a cold front
moving into the area this evening and through the overnight hours
tonight.

The thinking for this afternoon remains largely the same as
yesterday afternoon. Instability will increase with CAPE values
rising to 1500-2000 J/kg. Though hodographs will be relatively
straight, 0-6km shear values will be on the order of 50-60 knots. In
addition, we should have some dry air at mid levels. It still looks
possible for some strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the
strongest storms that do develop.

Storms will move out late this evening as the cold front moves
through. The latest model runs have been slowing the passage of this
cold front and hanging it up somewhere across south central KY or
northern TN. Another wave then rides northeast along the front
Monday. The latest guidance is in fairly good agreement that at
least southeast central KY should see quite a few showers on Monday,
so pops were increased to the likely category. In addition,
soundings do show some instability, so have added in a chance for
thunderstorms on Monday as well.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun May 1 2016

The lingering cold front across the region will finally sweep
through Monday night, bringing a brief end to the rain. However, an
upper level wave moving in on Tuesday could bring some additional
very light showers. In the wake of the front Tuesday looks to be
cooler with highs only in the mid 60s.

For the latter half of the week a deep upper level trough will build
in across the eastern CONUS. This will bring with it some chances
for rain as well as continued cooler temperatures.

The best chance for rain will be on Wednesday into Wednesday night
as another cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. This front
will bring much cooler air in its wake with highs on Thursday
topping out only in the upper 50s to lower 60s across most of the
area. In addition, some showers will likely linger across the
Bluegrass region through this time frame.

The trough will slowly shift eastward through Saturday. This will
lead to moderating temperatures Friday into the weekend. Highs on
Friday look to top out in the mid to upper 60s with Saturday back
into the 70s across much of the area. A few showers will still be
possible across the Bluegrass Friday, but should be east of the area
by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 136 AM EDT Sun May 1 2016

Expecting the TAF sites to be in a relative lull in precipitation
activity through the remainder of the overnight and into the late
morning. The exception will be another hour or two of showers and
storm in the vicinity of LEX. The rest of the activity will be to
the east of the TAF sites. Will continue with the thoughts that
convection to our west will diminish as it approaches.

Main concern overnight now switches to potential for some vis or
ceiling restrictions. With some clearing possible as we near dawn
combined with small T/Td spreads think fog or low stratus is a
possibility. Models have been overdone with low ceilings recently so
will not go as pessimistic as suggested. Think BWG will have the
best shot at low MVFR/IFR toward dawn, with LEX possibly seeing
MVFR. Will keep SDF just on the VFR side of things, but going close
to MVFR.

Otherwise, expect steady and generally south winds overnight. SW
winds prevail later today with another disturbance passing just
north of the region. This will spark afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances under otherwise VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........BJS



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