Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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868 FXUS63 KLMK 091052 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 652 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Slight chance of scattered to isolated storms this afternoon across southern IN. Main threat gusty winds and hail. * Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Area radar mosaic shows an area of moderate to heavy showers with embedded thunder working across central IN and through KY central KY during the predawn hours. The threat of severe has come to an end with the best overall dynamics remaining south across the TN valley for the remainder of the morning. Flood watch was cancelled for northern parts of our CWA (all of southern IN, the Bluegrass, and north central KY) with central and southern KY remaining until 12z due to ongoing flash flood warnings and advisories. Bulk of the showers and storms will diminish through the morning before a sfc low currently centered over central IL works across central IN eastward dragging a cold front across the region. Other than the morning precipitation, the bulk of the forecast looks to remain dry. As cooler air slowly works in behind the departing sfc low and cold front, steep low-level lapse rates and a sfc trough behind the cold front later this afternoon/evening could spark an isolated/sct`d storm mainly across our southern IN counties this afternoon. SPC has that area under a marginal risk with gusty winds and hail the main threat from some of these storms. Overall the threat and confidence is low, especially compared to the severe threat the last couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight some low level stratus could build back in over the area as cold air advects in over the region as winds become north- northeast. Lows will be in the low/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An amplified pattern develops over the CONUS for the end of the week and into the weekend as a deep trough develops across the eastern third of the US and a large expansive ridge over the western US. This will send a series of shortwave troughs through the Ohio Valley Friday and into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday before moderating closer to normal Sunday into early next week. There could be few chances of scattered showers or isolated storms on Saturday as the second shortwave trough drops in across the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Sunday into the early part of next week will feature a closed low over the Four Corners working eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Slight ridging aloft along with a sfc high will bring dry and mainly sunny weather for Sunday. As the closed low approaches the Ohio Valley, it will open up and develop a weak sfc low over the central US and push it across the region late Monday into Tuesday. We could get some showers and a few thunderstorms with this system. Another weak system could work through Wednesday with additional chances of showers and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Rain showers are tapering off across the area with lingering light rain moving eastward. Flight categories range from IFR at HNB to mainly VFR. SFC low centered over central IL will work eastward today and drag a cold front across the area this morning. MVFR CIG will briefly move across the area with the passage of the boundary with winds increasing and shifting more out of the east with gust between 20-25kts during the afternoon. CIG become scattered and VFR later this afternoon and into the overnight but given the flow around the departing sfc low tonight, low stratus is expected to redevelop towards the end of the forecast period with possible MVFR to IFR CIGs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ070-072-073-075- 081-082. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN