Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 231032
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
Upper ridging will strengthen through the short term, keeping us dry
and very warm. Went a bit above guidance for max temps given
increasing heights today/tomorrow and afternoon temps the past few
days. Dew points plunged into the 50s across southern Indiana and
north central Kentucky yesterday. Similar mixing is expected today
and tomorrow, so went below guidance for afternoon dew points each
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
Upper ridging will persist Saturday night and Sunday and then will
begin to break down as a strong upper low moves across southern
Canada and toward the Great Lakes region. The incoming trof and its
surface cold front interacting with slightly unstable air and
precipitable water amounts of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Monday.
There is great disagreement among the meteorological specifics in
the extended which is often the case when the models grapple with a
major pattern change. The general idea, though, is that troffing
will dominate the eastern U.S. and Canada through mid week. This
will bring us much cooler temperatures with afternoon readings not
making it out of the 70s Tuesday through Thursday. A couple of the
cooler spots in the area may briefly dip below 50 Thursday morning.
As for precipitation chances, it looks like a mostly dry week after
the Monday cold front clears the region, with Pacific high pressure
building in from the west. Also, upper ridging may begin to build
back in by the end of the forecast period.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
Plan on VFR conditions through the period at SDF and LEX. Meanwhile
at BWG there remains some ground fog around the terminal and
this may continue for another hour or so through sunrise. Otherwise,
look for VFR conditions at BWG as well. More fog is possible again
late tonight into Saturday morning at BWG and LEX where there will
likely be a deep light wind layer along with moist low-levels and
clear skies. Trended the end of TAF period with MVFR visibility but
there`s the possibility of lower conditions, especially at BWG.