Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 140538
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Upstream radar echoes getting a tough time going with the first wave
moving through the TN Valley at this time.  That wave however has
set the stage for the second shortwave trough moving in from the
southern IL/MO border to set off some light rains across the region
toward daybreak Monday. Have continued the trend of raising
pops...with perhaps some rumble of thunder along and south of the I-
64 corridor. Cloud cover likely will delay heating for the day
tomorrow, so lowered highs a little as well.

Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Trend in model data continues to show some rains moving into the
region from a disturbance currently over Arkansas. Have trended the
rain chances up, in response to these changes. Updated products will
be out shortly.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure this evening will give way to a shortwave moving
northeast along an inverted trough late tonight into tomorrow
morning.  The NAM and WRF models have come in more robust with
precipitation associated with this feature while some of the other
global models remain weaker and further suppressed.  Felt enough of
a trend was there in the NAM/WRF and very end of the HRRR to add
POPs late tonight (20% after midnight in the S.) and increase them
slightly for tomorrow (20-30% central KY).  Storms look to be mainly
elevated in nature providing a decent rain for locations that
receive a storm.  Overnight lows look to range through the 60s.

For Monday, expect isld-sct showers/storms mainly over central KY
with the best chances over south central KY as the shortwave passes
through. Precipitation should decline toward evening. Highs on
Monday look to range through the low to mid 80s.  The warmer area
will be southern Indiana where no rain is expected.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Tuesday - Thursday...

Mid week we`ll remain in an active pattern as multiple shortwaves
move through the Ohio Valley ahead of an approaching cold front
progged to move through Thursday.  Tuesday will remain mainly dry
except for far south central KY which may be close enough to a
southerly shortwave to see a stray shower/storm. Temps will increase
into the mid to upper 80s for highs Tues.

A better shortwave looks to bring scattered showers/storms to the
area Wed and then the best chance for precip will be Thu as the cold
front moves through the area.  Strong storms may be possible by Thu.
Temperatures will increase ahead of the front with highs in the
upper 80s both Wed/Thu and maybe reaching 90 in some locations over
south central KY Thu.

Friday - Sunday...

The pattern looks to remain a bit unsettled as we head into the
weekend with a slight chance of storms possible.  There is low
confidence in precipitation chances/timing with this pattern
however.  Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Confidence is growing in a period of light showers from roughly 08-
16z. It certainly won`t rain that whole time, but showers are
expected to develop near BWG after 06z and spread northeast during
the morning hours. MVFR vsby restrictions will be possible at BWG in
light rain prior to 12z, but SDF and LEX should stay VFR. Conditions
will be quicker to deteriorate at BWG this morning thanks to rich
low-level moisture. Low-level atmosphere remains much drier further
north.

Once showers move out, ceilings look likely to dip to MVFR at BWG
around 15z. LEX may also flirt with MVFR ceilings around this time
into early afternoon. By mid-afternoon, conditions to rise to VFR
for the rest of the day. Winds will remain light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...EBW



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