Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 140956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
556 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Precip has continued to struggle against dry low-level air, but
finally we are seeing a smattering of light showers roughly along
and just south of the I-64 corridor. Better forcing and better
environment remain to the south, so still not expecting much, if any
further northward expansion. Have removed all thunder from the grids
through midday, but isolated thunder is still possible this
afternoon as lapse rates improve. Hi-res forecasts will be tweaked
but ZFP already has this well handled.

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Forecast confidence is actually the lowest in the near-term, as hi-
res models are continuing to struggle with the impact of an upper
shortwave swinging across the Ozarks. Spotty light precip continues
to break out over southern Illinois and western Kentucky and
Tennessee, but has not been able to blossom in either intensity or
coverage. Environment is a bit less favorable heading north and east
into central Kentucky, but even with dewpoints pushing 70 south of
the Parkways, we still have yet to see measurable precip.

Still expect an increase in coverage as the upper wave moves east
and the air mass continues to modify, but even scattered
showers/isolated T-storms is starting to seem generous. However,
even if we do scale back POPs, there should be enough cloud cover
for most of the day to limit max temps to the lower 80s across most
of the area.

Lingering precip over south-central and east-central KY this evening
will exit to the east, with dry conditions expected overnight and
continuing on Tuesday for all but far southern Kentucky. Warming
trend in overnight lows will continue, and high temps on Tuesday
could touch 90 for the first time in nearly two weeks.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

Increasingly warm, muggy, and unsettled weather is expected through
the middle of the week. Deeper SW flow sets up on Wednesday as upper
ridging tries to build out of the Deep South. Will carry low chance
POPs in the warm advection pattern.

A strengthening upper shortwave passes well to our north on
Thursday, but develops enough of a negative tilt to support more
numerous and stronger storms ahead of its associated cold front. Not
expecting organized severe, but a few storms will produce heavy
rainfall and perhaps locally gusty winds. Temps will continue to
push 90 each afternoon, with mins solidly above climo in the humid
SW flow.

Friday - Sunday...

Weak front pushes through on Friday and gives way to a bubble of
high pressure for at least the first half of the weekend. Models
diverge after that as the ECMWF settles a broad upper trof over the
Great Lakes, while GFS is more progressive and brings another
disturbance in for Sunday. Low-confidence forecast, but for now will
have precip exiting on Friday and a dry day on Saturday, then just
slight chances Sat night into Sunday. Temps will run near normal for
this time of year.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Confidence is growing in a period of light showers from roughly 08-
16z. It certainly won`t rain that whole time, but showers are
expected to develop near BWG after 06z and spread northeast during
the morning hours. MVFR vsby restrictions will be possible at BWG in
light rain prior to 12z, but SDF and LEX should stay VFR. Conditions
will be quicker to deteriorate at BWG this morning thanks to rich
low-level moisture. Low-level atmosphere remains much drier further
to the north.

Once showers move out, ceilings look likely to dip to MVFR at BWG
around 15z. LEX may also flirt with MVFR ceilings around this time
into early afternoon. By mid-afternoon, conditions to rise to VFR
for the rest of the day. Winds will remain light and variable.




Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
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