Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211523 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1123 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:20 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO CLOUD COVER. ALSO, ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS LATTER FEATURE, ALONG WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN A BIT OF ADDITIONAL, WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. CAPE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK, AND FURTHER WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR DYNAMICS FOR MUCH...JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR AREA AROUND MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT INCREASED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL LIKELY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 80 ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW PLACES, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT COOLER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT OVER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS, AS 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUSTIFY GOING WARMER THAN MOS, WHICH TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED ANYWAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT BEGIN TO HAVE ISSUES AROUND WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER WE GET A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, OR STAY IN THE WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A BIT LONGER. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION IS A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS EASILY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...HASTINGS/FOISY MARINE...HASTINGS/FOISY

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