Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281817 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF-SHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE SITES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: WITH CURRENT WIND SPEED BELOW 10 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS SWELL ENTERING WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS). WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WITH STRONG BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN PLACE DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS AND STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FOR WAVE GRIDS WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER

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