Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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698 FXUS61 KCAR 150521 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1221 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will move across the region tonight with some scattered snow showers across the north. High pressure will build back in across the region through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update 12:20 am: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Cold for Sunday but a tad warmer than today. A band of snow showers to affect the Crown of Maine overnight. A weak front is forecast to slide across the region overnight into early Sunday. Model soundings including the NAM/GFS and RAP indicate that there is enough moisture residing from 850-700mbs. Mid level forcing is evident from 12z ua as 700mbs analysis showed a 45-50 kt jetstreak to swings across the region overnight. This could be enough to kick off some snow shower activity or even a brief period of light snow. The best llvl convergence and forcing looks to be right along the Maine-Canadian border. Based on this assessment, decided to increase pops to 40% in the aforementioned area w/20-30% further s into the Caribou-Presque Isle region. Attm, any snow accumulation will be around 0.5(1/2)inch. Clouds will also hold up temps overnight keeping most of the region above zero w/the exception of the far n and w as some site could go below 0F such as low lying sites and by the rivers. As stated above, cold on Sunday but a tad warmer w/sunshine returning. There will be a wnw breeze of 10-15 mph especially across the downeast and eastern areas. This will add a chill to the air. Daytime temps will range from 10-15 across the north and west while central and downeast areas will see low to mid 20s. One interesting thing to note is that the GFS and NAM soundings indicate some instability w/a slight steepening in the llvl lapse rates over the eastern areas such as Washington County. Moisture appears to be limited to the 850mb layer w/alot of dry air above that layer. Therefore, kept out the mention of any snow showers, but winds were increased a bit given the inverted v look to the soundings and 30+ kts above 3k ft. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build to our south Sunday night through Monday. Expect dry weather Sunday night with lows ranging from zero to 10 below across the north and zero to 10 above central and down east. A weak system moving east across Quebec may bring a snow shower or two to far northern areas on Monday, otherwise it will continue dry. Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 20s across the north/central areas and upper 20s to lower 30s downeast. High pressure will build back in for Monday night and then move east on Tuesday. It will continue dry through Tuesday as low pressure approaches from the west. Lows Monday night will range from the low to mid teens north and mid teens to lower 20s central/downeast. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 20s north and low to mid 30s central/downeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Increasing clouds can be expected Tuesday night. Precipitation will develop, mainly after midnight, as low pressure begins to track to our northwest. The precipitation Tuesday night will mainly be in the form of snow but possibly a mix of snow or rain across downeast. Precipitation will continue to expand across the region on Wednesday. Precipitation type on Wednesday will be dependent on the development and track of a secondary low that is expected to develop early Wednesday. At this point, will continue with a blended model approach and keep precipitation type primarily snow across the north and rain down east. Precipitation will to taper off to snow showers Wednesday night. Expect a continued chance for snow or rain showers on Thursday. Improving weather conditions can be expected by the second half of the week. Temperatures through the long term period are expected to remain above normal. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR w/a brief period of MVFR overnight for the far northern terminals from KPQI to KFVE. VFR for all terminals on Sunday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Monday through Tuesday. The exception will be in any isld/sct snow showers across the northern terminals KFVE/KCAR on Monday. Widespread IFR is possible after midnight Tuesday and on Wednesday in snow north and snow/rain downeast. Conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR Wednesday nigh and Thursday in lingering snow/rain snow showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Decided to issue a SCA for the outer zones for later tonight into Sunday as winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt w/gusts hitting 25+ kts. The intra-coastal zone looks like it will stay below 20 kts sustained w/a wnw flow. Seas will build slightly but w/the offshore wind, heights will stay below 5 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday night and then increase to small craft advisory levels Monday. Small craft advisory conditions will then be possible once again on Wednesday depending on the track of secondary low pressure expected to develop. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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