Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 150521
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A weak frontal boundary will move across the region tonight with
some scattered snow showers across the north. High pressure will
build back in across the region through Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update 12:20 am: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point
based on latest observations. No other changes.
Cold for Sunday but a tad warmer than today. A band of snow
showers to affect the Crown of Maine overnight.
A weak front is forecast to slide across the region overnight into
early Sunday. Model soundings including the NAM/GFS and RAP
indicate that there is enough moisture residing from 850-700mbs.
Mid level forcing is evident from 12z ua as 700mbs analysis showed
a 45-50 kt jetstreak to swings across the region overnight. This
could be enough to kick off some snow shower activity or even a
brief period of light snow. The best llvl convergence and forcing
looks to be right along the Maine-Canadian border. Based on this
assessment, decided to increase pops to 40% in the aforementioned
area w/20-30% further s into the Caribou-Presque Isle region.
Attm, any snow accumulation will be around 0.5(1/2)inch. Clouds
will also hold up temps overnight keeping most of the region above
zero w/the exception of the far n and w as some site could go
below 0F such as low lying sites and by the rivers.
As stated above, cold on Sunday but a tad warmer w/sunshine
returning. There will be a wnw breeze of 10-15 mph especially
across the downeast and eastern areas. This will add a chill to
the air. Daytime temps will range from 10-15 across the north and
west while central and downeast areas will see low to mid 20s. One
interesting thing to note is that the GFS and NAM soundings
indicate some instability w/a slight steepening in the llvl lapse
rates over the eastern areas such as Washington County. Moisture
appears to be limited to the 850mb layer w/alot of dry air above
that layer. Therefore, kept out the mention of any snow showers,
but winds were increased a bit given the inverted v look to the
soundings and 30+ kts above 3k ft.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build to our south Sunday night through Monday.
Expect dry weather Sunday night with lows ranging from zero to
10 below across the north and zero to 10 above central and down
east. A weak system moving east across Quebec may bring a snow
shower or two to far northern areas on Monday, otherwise it will
continue dry. Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 20s
across the north/central areas and upper 20s to lower 30s
downeast. High pressure will build back in for Monday night and
then move east on Tuesday. It will continue dry through Tuesday as
low pressure approaches from the west. Lows Monday night will
range from the low to mid teens north and mid teens to lower 20s
central/downeast. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid to
upper 20s north and low to mid 30s central/downeast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Increasing clouds can be expected Tuesday night. Precipitation
will develop, mainly after midnight, as low pressure begins to
track to our northwest. The precipitation Tuesday night will
mainly be in the form of snow but possibly a mix of snow or rain
Precipitation will continue to expand across the region on
Wednesday. Precipitation type on Wednesday will be dependent on
the development and track of a secondary low that is expected to
develop early Wednesday. At this point, will continue with a
blended model approach and keep precipitation type primarily snow
across the north and rain down east. Precipitation will to taper
off to snow showers Wednesday night. Expect a continued chance
for snow or rain showers on Thursday. Improving weather
conditions can be expected by the second half of the week.
Temperatures through the long term period are expected to remain
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR w/a brief period of MVFR overnight for the far
northern terminals from KPQI to KFVE. VFR for all terminals on
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Monday through Tuesday. The
exception will be in any isld/sct snow showers across the
northern terminals KFVE/KCAR on Monday. Widespread IFR is
possible after midnight Tuesday and on Wednesday in snow north and
snow/rain downeast. Conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR
Wednesday nigh and Thursday in lingering snow/rain snow showers.
NEAR TERM: Decided to issue a SCA for the outer zones for later
tonight into Sunday as winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt
w/gusts hitting 25+ kts. The intra-coastal zone looks like it will
stay below 20 kts sustained w/a wnw flow. Seas will build slightly
but w/the offshore wind, heights will stay below 5 ft.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels Sunday night and then increase to small craft advisory
levels Monday. Small craft advisory conditions will then be
possible once again on Wednesday depending on the track of
secondary low pressure expected to develop.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-