Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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725 FXUS61 KCAR 021146 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 746 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THEN PERSISTING EARLY TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TOTALS OF A HALF INCH TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO AROUND AN INCH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AND RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE N. UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHILE THE NORTH AND WEST COULD HANG ON TO CLOUDS LONGER. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE 925-850MB LAYER. FORCING W/THE UPPER TROF IS WEAK BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF SHOWER FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. DECIDED TO STAY 20% POPS TO COVER THIS. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NW AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A NNE FLOW THROUGH 850MBS AND SW FLOW ABOVE THAT LAYER LEADING TO OVERRUNNING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT GETS TRAPPED BELOW 850MBS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N AND W WHICH WOLD LEAD TO CLOUDS. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AS MOISTURE PROFILE NOT THAT DEEP PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. DECIDED TO GO W/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE N AND W. ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY, LOOKS LIKE DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. SOUNDING DATA SUPPORT THIS W/A GOOD WEST WIND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE W/READINGS HITTING SEASONAL NORMS( MID 50S TO LOWER 60S). OVERRUNNING PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA AND WEAK LOW PRES APCHG FROM THE S. THIS SETUP USUALLY LEADS TO CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SETTING UP. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF RAINFALL W/THE WEAK LOW. THE ECMWF IS FASTER BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO GUIDANCE. ALL AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE QPF WILL BE WELL THE E AND OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DECIDED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND AND CARRIED 60% FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AND 20-40% ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% POPS FOR THURSDAY W/UPPER TROF NEARBY AND A A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW AND OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL, BUT GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, DECIDED TO GO W/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. THE OVERRUNNING SETUP LOOKS LIKE IT BREAKS BY FRIDAY W/SOME RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES TO THE ENE AND SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLY BY THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO LEAN W/TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S. BEYOND FRIDAY, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND MESSY AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW W/A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN US POSSIBLY PLAYING A ROLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP. LOW PRES TO OUR N AND S WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES IN BETWEEN THE TWO COULD LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR DRIER WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPS. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE US. THIS COULD DICTATE TO WHAT WEATHER THE REGION RECEIVES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO LEAN W/MILDER TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEPT SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH RAIN-FREE. THIS LINES UP WELL W/GYX AND THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF A WARMING TREND. SUNDAY COULD BE A DAY W/SHOWERS AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. CARRIED 30-40% POPS FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY W/KBGR AND KBHB SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS RIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOSE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD SETUP FOR KBGR BY 09Z. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE DOWN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHOT FOR SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SWELL COMPONENT THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS SWELL COULD HANG ON INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN IN PLACE W/LOW PRES RESIDING S OF OUR WATERS, DECIDED TO A 5-6 FOOT SWELL INTO FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...NORCROSS/HEWITT MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS

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