Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311133 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 633 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE...CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING, MAINLY WITH THE SNOW FORECAST. RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IS STARTING TO PIVOT, BECOMING MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WITH TIME. THIS IS OCCURRING A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE UNDER THIS BAND COULD STILL PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES THIS MORNING, WHILE LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST MAY ONLY SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS ALSO TOUGH TO DISCERN; IT IS LIKELY NOT MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ALLAGASH. THE FAR WESTERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMLATION BEFORE THE SNOW STOPS LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO NOTE THAT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS MORNING. GIVEN ALL THIS, HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL RANGES MUCH, AND STILL EXPECT THAT WHEREVER THE SNOW BAND`S PIVOT POINT SETS UP, THERE COULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING, DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY. DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS, MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY OFF THE MID ATLC STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE. GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR THE FA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME. WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002- 005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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