Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Updated Short Term and Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

South winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon, in response
to strong cyclogenesis east of Denver. Wind gusts near 40 mph are
expected through sunset. Unseasonably hot temperatures in the 90s
will again contribute to low relative humidity and an enhanced
risk for wildfire spread. Strong dryline with respectable
convergence will continue to sharpen through the late afternoon
along the eastern zones. Ample instability exists along this
boundary (CAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg), and lapse rates are steep as
the EML overspreads the moisture axis. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm in the SE zones, most likely in the vicinity of
Barber county, but the odds of initiation are low. Kept grids dry
with pops < 15%. Should a storm develop, strong to severe
downbursts would be the primary threat for a few hours, before
convergence is lost on the retreating dryline this evening.

Tonight...windy and unseasonably warm. South winds will remain
elevated and gusty all night, averaging 15-25 mph, in response to
a strong low level jet. With 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb winds of
55-60 kts, gustiness will prevail through sunrise. With the winds
preventing mixing, and moisture advection increasing from the
S/SE, temperatures tonight/Friday morning will be warm and way
above normal for the first day of fall. Forecasting temperatures
to hold in the 70-73 range along and east of US 283 (normal is
lower 50s). In fact, the record warmest low temperature on record
for Dodge City for Sept 22nd is 69, set just last year in 2016.
A very balmy way to start autumn.

Friday...Continued windy and unseasonably warm. No change in the
synoptic pattern, with leeside cyclogenesis again inducing strong
south winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures at 850 mb
do inch back about 2C, so forecasting lower to mid 90s as opposed
to upper 90s. Also, increased boundary layer dewpoints will help
hold temperatures down somewhat. With the lee trough/dryline and
its associated convergence situated further west near the CO/KS
border, this is where is any convective initiation will be favored
late Friday. Pop grids through 7 pm are relegated to areas along
and west of US 83, which line up with SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail
probability from the Day 2 outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A wet pattern is expected Friday through at least the early part
of next week as the upper level low/trough slowly moves into the
Central Rockies. Upper level shortwaves will move up and towards
the area as this system advances eastward. Storm chances will
start out first across far western Kansas Friday evening,
spreading eastward as we head through the weekend. Precipitation
chances then look to end from west to east as we head into the
first part of next week. Precipitation chances could continue into
the mid part of next week as models suggest another disturbance
moving through the area. However, confidence is low. As for
temperatures, highs in the lower 90s Friday then range from the
upper 70s west to around 90 degrees across central Kansas Saturday
and Sunday. Highs then plunge into the 70s Monday through the mid
part of next week as arctic high pressure builds across the area.
Lows will generally be in the 60s Friday and Saturday night then
down into the 50s throughout the remainder of the long term
forecast. Upper 40s could also be possible Monday and Tuesday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR/SKC through this TAF forecast, with no cig/vis issues.
Some scattered cumulus possible along the dryline, mainly east of
the terminals, this afternoon. Aviation impacts will revolve
around winds and low level wind shear. Strong S/SW winds can be
expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z, gusting at
times near 35 kts. After 00z, winds will only slightly abate,
remaining strong and gusty overnight courtesy of a strong low
level jet. South winds will continue to gust near 25 kts all night
long, and with NAM forecasting 850 mb winds of 55-60 kts,
included LLWS in all TAFs for all terminals tonight. After 15z
Friday, strong south winds of 20-30 kts will quickly resume with
the onset of morning mixing.


Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Red flag warning remains in effect along and west of US 283 this
afternoon and early evening. South winds will increase sharply
this afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph.
Dry intrusion from the west today is more marginal compared to
Tuesday. Regardless, unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures well
into the 90s will drive min RH into the 15-20% range through early
evening. Expecting critical wind/RH west of the dryline this
afternoon. South winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight.
Strong south winds will continue on Friday, but increased boundary
layer moisture on Friday will keep min RH well above critical
levels (30-35%).


DDC  97  71  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  68  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  93  61  88  63 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  96  65  91  67 /   0  10  10  30
HYS  96  73  93  71 /  10  10   0  10
P28  98  72  92  70 /  10  10   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for



LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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