Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211843
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
143 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Precip chances pick up tonight as short range models indicate a
westerly flow aloft persisting across the Western High Plains while
a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifts slowly east across
the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough extending
from the Pacific Northwest southward into southern California, will
begin to lift slowly northeast across the Great Basin overnight. As
it does so, lee side troughing will strengthen across eastern
Colorado, in turn enhancing a dryline as it advances eastward
into extreme southwest Kansas. A prevailing southeast upslope flow
across central and portions of southwest Kansas will continue to
draw ample moisture into the region with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s(F). As a result, Thunderstorms will be possible early
this evening as low/mid level lapse rates steepen significantly
across west central and southwest Kansas in the wake of an eroding
low level stratus deck. Instability will increase significantly
just ahead of the dryline with SBCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/KG.
Although the zonal flow aloft will remain fairly weak, short fuse
model soundings do indicate fairly decent 0-6km directional shear
supporting an increased potential for severe storms with large
hail and damaging winds the primary threat. Considering the amount
of instability and deep layer shear present, the potential does
exist for isolated tornadoes with the strongest storms through
late this evening. Any lingering thunderstorms will dissipate late
tonight into Sunday morning as they spread east-northeast into
central Kansas. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible
late Sunday afternoon as similar conditions develop.

Considering a prevailing south to southeasterly flow overnight and
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F), look for
lows only down into the 60s(F) across southwest and central Kansas
toward daybreak Sunday morning. The southerly flow across western
Kansas will persist Sunday reinforcing the warmer air mass across
the region. Widespread highs in the 80s(F) are likely Sunday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Severe weather potential exists again on Sunday with models
developing convective initiation late day early evening along a
northeast-southwest oriented zone which likely represents a further
eastward advanced dryline from previous days.

Temperatures will finally moderate closer to above normal highs
for late May through the week, reaching possible 90 degrees.
Dryline storms may be possible any day of the week before a cold
front moves through the area by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KDDC and KHYS through
late this afternoon as low level stratus continues to erode west
to east. Otherwise, VFR conditions will develop early this
afternoon at KGCK and persist through early evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are likely this evening across portions of western
Kansas, potentially affecting KGCK with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at KGCK, KDDC, and
possibly KHYS briefly this evening before low level stratus
redevelops across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
late tonight. South to southeasterly winds around 20 to 30kt will
persist this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Southerly winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating but will remain
gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  62  82  61 /  20  40  40  40
GCK  82  62  85  58 /  50  50  20  20
EHA  88  58  86  55 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  86  61  85  60 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  67  60  81  60 /  20  30  50  50
P28  75  62  81  63 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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