Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010853 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 453 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST. A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED WITH RIDGING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT. FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING RIGHT OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. .THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT. .SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS

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