Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250513 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 113 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the first half of this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to the east by an approaching cold front. The front will move through Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure area moves through the region Saturday with high pressure returning for Sunday. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisories for the official forecast on Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast is generally on track, however backed off on the extent of cloud cover overnight into Mon morning. Expecting similar sky conditions as last night with perhaps some stratus making into the east end of Long Island and portions of New London county overnight. HRRR seemed to have a good handle on current cloud cover so it was used for the majority of the night. NARRE supports this. Additionally, clear conditions and light to calm winds will be favorable for fog development late tonight. Thinking extent should be similar or slightly more widespread than last night with the same airmass in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another sunny/warm day expected on Mon, though not quite as warm as today with onshore flow more prevalent. High temps will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast, to mid 80s most elsewhere, to the upper 80s well inland, still above MOS guidance. With another night of onshore flow, low stratus and fog should be more prevalent as well, mainly inland NW of NYC, and also across eastern CT/Long Island. Low temps should be near or slightly cooler than those expected tonight, in the upper 50s and 60s. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will continue to produce a high rip current risk and high surf. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong upper ridge and surface high will be remaining across the region Tuesday as Hurricane Maria moves east of the Carolinas. The ridge slowly weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave digs into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. The increasing westerly flow with the trough will steer Maria eastward from the Carolinas, and into the Atlantic, Wednesday night through the end of the week. There will be little moisture from the tropical cyclone and the cold front moving into the region and will have mainly slight chance to low chance probabilities. With a continuation of the easterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday, low clouds and fog, with drizzle, will be possible. Will include for Tuesday morning only at this time. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Anomalous warmth will remain across the region until the cold frontal passage, when temperatures return to more seasonal levels. The forecast becomes more uncertain after Thursday as a re- enforcing shortwave moves through the longwave trough and sends another cold front into the region Saturday. At that time temperatures may fall below seasonal normals. Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a high rip current risk through the week. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period. Expect similar conditions as last night, although fog may be a bit more widespread outside of NYC terminals. MVFR to locally IFR vsbys develop through 10z or so. Stratus may also develop for a couple of hours at KGON late. VFR returns 12z to 14z and will remain for all terminals during the day Monday. Stratus and fog likely to return tonight and is expected to be even more widespread, however timing is uncertain and could be several hours off from current forecast. Light and vrb winds into the morning then increase to 5-10 kt out of the E-SE during the aftn/eve and then become light/vrb again tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with areas of fog and/or stratus and drizzle outside city terminals. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with patchy fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers. .Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to scattered shower activity. .Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Long period swells are producing 5-ft swells on the outer portion of the coastal waters E of Fire Island Inlet. Expect 5+ ft swells to reach all ocean waters overnight. SCA for hazardous seas in effect thru Tue, and those seas should be with us into late week. Long period swells will continue to produce hazardous seas on the ocean waters at least through the forecast period, Friday. On the non ocean waters winds and seas will remain below advisory levels until Thursday. Gusty winds develop behind a cold frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday. Northwest small craft gusts will be possible late Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday across all the forecast waters at that time. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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