Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280620 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 220 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Earlier convection across Orange County has dissipated so have removed pops here. A few showers have developed across the far eastern forks of Long Island. These appear to be tied to a weak 500 hPa vorticity maximum moving this area, and this will shift east by 6z so do not expect this activity to last much longer. Otherwise, just made minor adjustments to near term grids. A mild night is in store with temperatures in the 60s for most locations and near 70 in the city. Some fog is possible towards day break, especially where winds diminish. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For Saturday, still no significant source of lift outside of weak mid level shortwaves, but SBCAPE will be building once again away from sea breezes. Again, will go with only slight chance to chance pops, focused more toward the afternoon and away from areas cooled by sea breezes. Highs on Saturday should be warmer than on Friday with warmer temps at the top of the mixed layer, and probably less cloud cover overall. The only exception to this is for coastal CT and Long Island where stronger southerly flow will hold temperatures to similar levels as those observed on Friday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic ocean beaches on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models are in good agreement with the H5 pattern across North America to start...however timing and amplitude differences start to become apparent by the middle of the week and even more so by weeks end. Sub-tropical ridge over the western atlantic begins to break down and shift e during the latter part of the weekend but should still have enough of an influence on the area to keep any convection associated with an approaching back door cold front mainly to the north...although it may be close enough for some storms across the have maintained the low chance pops there. Moisture from a tropical disturbance off the Carolina coast is forecast to feed up the east coast along a pre-frontal trough Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. There is the potential for heavy rainfall with this system as a plume of tropical moisture surges northward ahead of the aforementioned system near the SE coast. These values are close to the maximum observed precipitable water for May 30 per SPC Sounding Climatology. An approaching shortwave in the northern branch and surface cold front will shift this activity to the east Monday night. Deep layered ridging then returns through the rest of the week with the return to summer-like temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain off the Mid-Atlantic coast into tonight. Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for mvfr fog/haze early this morning at KSWF and KHPN. There is also the chance for isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior S CT, with the best chance at KSWF. Have VCSH in the TAF at KSWF this afternoon to reflect this possibility. Winds generally light and variable or SW at under 10 kt this morning (winds at KISP should diminish to under 10 kt by 9z). Should see impacts of around 10-15kt seabreezes from late morning to mid afternoon, except at KSWF where wsw flow at under 10 kt should develop by mid afternoon. Winds become light and variable this evening at all but KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KISP...where ssw-sw flow should diminish to under 10kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... .Late Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon sea breezes. Chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms mainly at Lower Hudson Valley/interior S CT terminals. .Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower likely. Showers/thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall. LLWS possible at southern terminals Sunday night. .Monday night-Tuesday night...Becoming VFR Monday Night. .Wednesday...VFR with afternoon seabreezes. && .MARINE... Gusts up to 20 kt on the ocean continue possible overnight with an occasional gust close to 25 kt. The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the waters through Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels during this period. A weak pressure gradient across the waters will then keep winds and seas below sca levels through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through Sunday. Rainfall amounts around one half to three quarters of an inch are possible Sunday night and Monday with locally higher amounts possible. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible from the heaviest rain. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/24 NEAR TERM...DS/MET SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...MET/PW/24 HYDROLOGY...PW/24 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.