Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271824 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 224 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the Tri-state area for this weekend. A cold front will then approach the area Sunday night and slowly move through on Monday. High pressure follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Heights build aloft today as an upper high centered over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward into New England. At the same time, surface high pressure builds across eastern Canada and New England. This will allow for the development of an E/SE flow at the surface, undercutting the warm air aloft. The area will be capped with plenty of sun and daytime highs several degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 80s-85 along the immediate coast, to the mid to upper 80s most other locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure both aloft and at the surface persists into Sunday with dry, warm conditions. Readings will generally remain a few degrees above normal. Highs on Sunday look to be a touch cooler than Saturday with a lowering subsidence inversion and a shallower mixed layer. There should be few if any clouds through Sunday. Upper trough across the upper midwest translates east tonight through Monday, sending a cold front toward the region Sunday night into Monday. Cold front will pass through late Monday morning NW of NYC and by early evening far eastern LI and SE CT. Marginal instability and weak shear along and ahead of the front point to isolated coverage of any showers or thunderstorms that develop. Highs Monday will be a bit warmer due to steeper lapse rates and warm advection ahead of the front. Interior locations and the NYC metro will come close to 90. High pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds across the area on Tuesday. Another cold frontal passage late Wednesday will have limited moisture to work with, so the chances for precipitation will once again not be very high. Thereafter, surface high pressure moves in through the end of the week. Temperatures through the week should average above normal with not much in the way of cold air advection behind these weak fronts. Cooler air will finally move in for Friday however, as an upper level trough sets up over the Northeast beginning Wednesday in association with upper level low developing over southeastern Canada. It will also be on the humid side through much of the week, but not oppressively so. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 at times, but start to decrease on Thursday after the passage of the second cold front, and continue to drop into the 50s on Friday with as dry northwesterly sets up. In fact, went a couple of degrees below guidance for Friday and Friday night in regards to dew points as the models are probably overdoing the dew points with the northwesterly set up. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals. Sea breezes are in at all metro and coastal terminals except KTEB, which should shift over between 19Z-20Z. Sound breeze at KLGA should shift over to an ocean sea breeze at about 20Z, and could gust to about 18kt or so for up to an hour after onset as it is doing at KJFK. Winds should back more SE tonight and diminish to around 5 kt at the NYC terminals, and go light/variable elsewhere. Expect sea breeze onset/direction/speed late morning or early afternoon on Sunday to be similar to that of today. .Outlook for 18Z Sunday through Thursday... .Late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm possible. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm possible. .Wednesday night...Scattered showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. An isolated morning shower or tstm possible.
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&& .MARINE... Wind and seas will be slow to build into early next week in response to long period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. Refer to advisories from the NHC for latest forecast information. 5 ft seas develop over the eastern ocean zone late in the day Tuesday, but possibly as early as Monday. Waves come down below 5 ft for Thursday onward. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...DW

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