Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...







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