Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 050119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE



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