Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 260123
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end
of this week into the weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts may
approach the area from the north tonight into Thursday, then again
this weekend, but both may end up staying north of the area. An area
of low pressure moving into New England early next week is forecast
to bring a cold front across our area around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue
to influence our region for tonight even as a weak frontal boundary
settles across New York and New England. We are anticipating a
mostly clear sky with just some patches of cirrus at times.

A light wind in combination with the mostly clear sky should allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s at most
locations in our forecast area. The spread between the temperature
and dew point readings should remain generally greater than 5
degrees. However, localized fog is possible but it should not be
widespread or dense enough to include in the forecast.

Very minor changes to the current fcst, with high pres overhead,
and little in the way of clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Not much change is expected in the surface pattern for Thursday with
high pressure located off the coast and a frontal boundary remaining
to our north.

We are expecting a mostly sunny sky in the morning. A short wave
trough traveling in the mid level flow is forecast to approach from
the west late in the day. As a result, we should see an increase in
high clouds and the development of some cumulus in the afternoon. We
will maintain a low or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
for eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and parts of the upper
Delmarva late in the day.

A southerly surface flow will continue to draw warm air into our
region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to rise well into the 80s.
A sea breeze should keep readings in the 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period
ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend,
and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and
thunderstorms basically each day.

High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the
end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the
western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the
area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In
turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping
temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By
Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may
cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for
Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a
few more degrees.

There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each
day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best
chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual
vorticity, short wave impulses.

A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend,
but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into
our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the
northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But
for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area.

There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal
passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and
the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer
to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way,
there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
could be localized light fog around daybreak on Thursday. We have
mentioned the possibility of a brief period of MVFR conditions at
KRDG.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to approach our TAF
sites from the west late on Thursday, but probs are too low to
mention attm.

A west to southwest wind around 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. The wind is forecast to
settle into the south at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the
period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the
day, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog
development overnight into the morning each day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southwest to
south flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for
tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15 knots or less are expected.
Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range.
Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected.  Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night
through Friday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Iovino/Nierenberg
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg/Robertson
Marine...Iovino/Robertson



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