110
FXUS61 KBUF 040758
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected for most of the region through tonight as
weak high pressure across our region drifts to the New England
coast. It will become more unsettled later Wednesday through
Thursday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, warm and humid weather through mid week will give way to
noticeably cooler conditions for the later part of the week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge axis will remain over the region through
tonight, while surface high pressure moves to the east coast. This
will maintain dry weather through the period, although a rogue
diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm is possible inland from
the lakes. Temperatures today will be quite warm for early
June, some 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs away
from the lakes in the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Very active period expected as deep moisture from the Southeast,
combines with moisture ahead of a cold front. PWAT values will rise
to 1.75", about 1 SD above normal for this time of year, and will
make for a humid period until the cold front arrives Thursday.
Rising the stickiness will be another day in the 80s, with mid to
upper 80s for the Lake Plain and through the lower elevations east
of Lake Ontario...including the SLV and Black River Valley.

Aloft a shortwave trough with multiple convective vort maxes will
pass over our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. The best chances
for storms will be Wednesday night with diffluent flow aloft, and
additional lift along a 850 -700 hPa trough axis. This will bring
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, first with the warm
front, then an additional, more widespread line of storms within a
muggy Wednesday night ahead of a cold front that crosses the region.
Aiding in precipitation for Wednesday night will be diffluent flow
aloft, and additional lift along a 850 -700 hPa trough axis.

MUCAPE values of 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg will maintain thunder chances,
but 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25 to 30 knots will keep severe
potential low. The greatest risk for stronger thunderstorms will be
near the western Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon and evening where
0-3 km SRH reaches 150 to 200 m2/s2 and some updraft helicity tracks
as depicted on some of the high resolution models. There will be the
threat for heavy downpours within this moisture rich airmass, with
potential for training storms ahead of the cold front Wednesday
night. The 25 to 35 knots of flow aloft should keep storms moving,
with any flooding concerns arising from training clusters of
drenching storms.

The cold front will enter far WNY late Wednesday night. This will
focus the heavier storms and thunder potential for the Finger Lakes
and eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday morning and afternoon,
while a pattern change reaches WNY, one with cooler air aloft, lower
instability resulting in more showery type precipitation.

Behind the cold front southwest winds will be a bit breezy off Lake
Erie, with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Cooler, and becoming less humid
Thursday with high temperatures ranging through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A closed upper level low will drop across our region this period,
with cooler but unsettled conditions. Multiple shortwave rotating
around this upper level low, combined with steepening lapse rates
will maintain showers and thunderstorm chances, especially during
daytime heating right through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog early this morning will bring localized MVFR to IFR
conditions, with the lowest conditions most likely to be found
across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. KJHW has
the highest probabilities for restrictions.

VFR conditions are expected for the entire after 12Z with isolated
showers in the afternoon or perhaps a thunderstorm. Not nearly
enough coverage to put in at any TAF sites at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some showers and thunderstorms,
especially over the far western counties during the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light to modest
winds and minimal waves into midweek.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday with a few rounds of thunderstorms likely. West to
southwest winds will increase on the lakes behind the cold front
Thursday through Friday with choppy conditions developing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR/Apffel/JJR