050
FXUS64 KTSA 180808
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
308 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Satellite imagery shows areas of fog in many of the valleys of
western AR and southeast OK this morning. Only a few obs sites
reporting vis of less than one mile and overall the potential for
dense fog should remain localized. Aside from that, a very warm
and humid afternoon is expected with most locations warming well
into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shortwave ridging remains largely in control Sunday, with another
very warm and humid afternoon, as some spots likely reach low 90s.
Signal remains in strong to severe thunderstorm development along
the dry line to our west late Sunday afternoon across northwest
OK, some of which eventually moves east toward our area. This
activity will be on the decline Sunday night as it moves this far
east. Dry line appears less active Monday with increased capping
spreading north as mid level heights again rise temporarily.

Potentially more active severe weather day is possible Tuesday as
a stronger shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, resulting in
stronger deep layer wind fields and modest height falls into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty continues regarding storm mode and
coverage, but this period appears to offer the highest chance of
severe weather for this region.

Cold front expected to push through Wednesday with storm chances
continuing. Evolution of the pattern into late next week remains
in question, but generally looks active.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Patchy fog may reduce visibilities at some sites through early
morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  89  70 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   87  64  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  64  89  71 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   87  60  88  68 /   0   0   0  40
FYV   85  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   84  63  87  69 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  61  86  68 /   0   0   0  30
F10   86  63  87  70 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   86  65  87  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05