Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011523
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
This morning...on a synoptic scale...an upper low was positioned
over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located
over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona
upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the
Kansas upper low...creating a mid level frontal boundary to the
northwest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers had developed along this boundary early this
morning...though had dissipated by mid morning as they ran into
drier air over North Central Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas at mid morning...mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions with west to northwesterly surface winds were common.

This afternoon...the mid level frontal boundary is expected to
push southeast into the CWA as the Arizona low becomes more of an
open wave as it shifts east and the Kansas low continues to
weaken. Latest HRRR runs try to develop some precip along this
boundary over Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. For now will
continue with the current small pops northwest of Interstate
44...as the drier low level air over the region could hinder
precip reaching the ground. The better precip chances continue to
look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into
the Southern Plains.

Ahead of the mid level boundary...Partly cloudy skies west to
mostly clear skies east will allow for temps to warm into the
60s-lower 70s from northwest to southeast over the CWA. As the
boundary moves into the region...cloud cover should begin to
increase with mostly cloudy conditions over the CWA expected this
evening. Also today...west to northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph should
continue across the CWA.

Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to the afternoon
temp/pop/dewpoint/wind grinds and adjust timing of increasing sky
grids. Otherwise...current forecasts seems to be in good shape at
this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  48  64  46 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   75  51  68  47 /   0  40  20  10
MLC   70  50  66  45 /   0  40  10   0
BVO   64  46  63  43 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   68  48  62  42 /   0  30  20  10
BYV   70  49  62  43 /   0  30  30  10
MKO   68  48  65  44 /   0  40  10   0
MIO   65  46  63  42 /   0  30  10   0
F10   67  48  65  45 /   0  40  10   0
HHW   76  53  69  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30


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