Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171445
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
945 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Forecast has been updated to expand Wind Advisory and to remove
PoPs from most areas for the remainder of today. See discussion
below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Morning surface analysis puts a 990mb surface low over SW KS,
directly beneath the upper low. A Pacific cold front extends south
of the low across western OK. The remnants of last night`s storms
has all but dissipated. There will be a small chance of isolated
afternoon redevelopment ahead of the front this afternoon east of
the I-49/US 71 corridor per latest hi-res CAM guidance.

The latest 12Z NAM data confirms the need for wind headlines
today. 925 mb winds in the 35 to 40 kt range are forecast across
NE OK and far NW AR during the favorable time of day for vertical
mixing and momentum transfer. As a result, the wind advisory was
expanded to include more of NE OK and also far NW AR.

High temps and cloud cover trends look good. Updated text products
and headlines have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually diminish through
16Z. Winds will increase out of the south-southwest this morning
with gusts of 25 to 35 kts after 17Z. Near sunset winds will drop
off but still remain breezy overnight. Skies will clear from west
to east becoming clear by 00Z. Low cloud deck moves back in by
late in the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Band of showers/thunderstorms continues to make progress into the
eastern fringes of our forecast area early this morning. Leading
edge of convection has produced sporadic 40-55 mph
gusts...although expect a gradual decrease in storm intensity over
the next several hours as convection moves into more stable air.
This activity will weaken further by late morning into far eastern
OK/western AR...with only slight chance PoPs remaining in the
afternoon forecast across western AR.

South to southwest winds will push wind advisory criteria across
parts of northeast OK...although will hold off on any headlines at
this time. Day shift can monitor morning conditions and issue if
necessary.

The dryline should temporarily move through a large portion of
eastern OK this afternoon before retreating west overnight as
breezy south winds persist. Thursday should remain convection free
as the dryline retreats farther west to near the TX
panhandle/western OK border. Storms are expected to develop in
this area by late afternoon/early evening...with upscale growth
into the overnight hours as storms move into parts of eastern OK.
Severe weather will be a possibility with this activity.

The active pattern will continue into late week as a secondary
upper wave swings around the primary central Rockies cyclone. This
will result in yet another round of dryline convection moving east
into the area late Friday into Friday night...with storms
lingering into at least Saturday night before the synoptic front
finally shifts southeast of the region. Severe weather along with
heavy rainfall will be possible for much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  68  87  69 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   87  69  89  70 /  20  10  10  30
MLC   87  68  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
BVO   85  63  86  66 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  20  10  10  40
BYV   82  65  84  66 /  20  10  10  40
MKO   86  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  63  86  66 /  10  10  10  60
F10   86  68  86  68 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  70  87  70 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>071.

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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