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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TEMP DEWPOINT SKY CHANGES FOR UPDATED FORECAST.
A SURGE IN `SPRING FEVER` EXPECTED.               GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS AROUND 3-5SM...ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LOGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY NOTE...BUT A LATE RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...SIGNALLING THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SPRING GREENUP IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW IN ANY AREAS WITH STILL CURED
FUELS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THIS...THERE
REALLY ARE NOT ANY SLAM DUNK DAYS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION TO RECEIVE
ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS
DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE LEAVE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   74  52  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  46  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   71  45  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   70  47  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
F10   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12