Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR CIGS IN SE KS AND SW MO WILL SPREAD INTO NE OK AND NW AR THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NE OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
ACROSS E OK...HOWEVER A LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS ACROSS FAR NW AR TO APPROACH FREEZING THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE.

A GOOD WEST TO EAST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS WARM APPRECIABLY. IT
APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE OK INTO WESTERN AR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION WILL PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER FRONTAL
FORCING IS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...AND THE SUNDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND GRADUALLY LOSE DEFINITION BY TUESDAY BUT NOT BEFORE
REMAINING A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. BY MID
WEEK MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO INCREASE WITH A MINOR WAVE PASSING
SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A STRONGER
WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





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