Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21


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