Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 262141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
341 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Stratus has been impressively persistent near the Red River this
afternoon, otherwise skies have become mostly sunny. Clouds will
be on the increase tonight in advance of system moving ashore in
California, initially in the form of higher ceilings spreading in
from the west. Winds just now beginning to respond to this upper
low and will do so increasingly though the night, helping to keep
the boundary layer better mixed than last night. This keeps fog
potential low, with possible exception of sheltered valleys across
far SE OK and NW AR. Low clouds will begin to surge north with
most areas seeing cloudy skies by morning with overnight lows
held up by south winds/cloud cover.

Low level moisture transport will initially be focused to our west
Sunday, but some patchy drizzle or light rain possible in the
morning into eastern OK. Showers/isolated thunderstorms should
gradually increase through the day as large scale forcing spreads
over the southern plains. Tightening gradient will lead to
substantial increase in wind speeds Sunday afternoon, potentially
nearing or exceeding advisory levels across northeast OK. This
will raise fire danger, though RH levels should remain well above
critical throughout the day.

As upper low continues to lift northeast into the plains, moisture
will continue to surge north with deepest becoming focused across
eastern areas. As the front encounters the deeper moisture, More
widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop from southeast
OK into northwest AR Sunday evening. Given the forecast wind
fields, a few severe storms could occur even with only modest
instability. Rain and thunderstorms will gradually shift east by
MOnday afternoon, with surge of drier air spearing over eastern
OK. Fire danger will again increase as a result, though wind
speeds at this time are expected to remain below critical.

Quiet weather returns for the remainder of next week with
temperatures close to seasonal norms. Model solutions diverge on
potential impacts of upper low in the eastern Pacific by next
weekend. GFS still looks cool and wet for SAturday, Latest ECMWF
trend is to cut off energy farther to the southwest with northern
stream influence more apparent. Either way, winter weather
potential will be very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  61  56  66 /   0  50  50  10
FSM   43  62  53  69 /   0  20  70  70
MLC   49  63  57  67 /   0  40  70  40
BVO   46  61  52  65 /   0  50  50  10
FYV   38  57  52  63 /   0  30  70  70
BYV   40  58  50  64 /   0  20  60  70
MKO   45  61  54  66 /   0  40  60  30
MIO   45  59  54  64 /   0  50  50  30
F10   48  62  56  66 /   0  40  50  20
HHW   46  66  57  70 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14



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