Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 210424
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of dense fog starting to develop across NE OK/NW AR late this
evening. Fog is expected to become more widespread overnight across
much of the area with LIFR conditions likely. Fog should begin to
lift around mid morning Saturday with ceiling heights rising by
late morning to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Skies clearing across much of the area this evening, except for
stubborn low cloud deck across north central OK which extends into
extreme western portions of the forecast area. In general will
see clear skies and light winds tonight with a moist low level
airmass remaining in place. Current obs showing dew point
depressions nearing zero across NW AR and far NE OK, which
supports the idea of areas of fog. At this time do not expect
widespread visibility of 1/4 mile or less. A few minor changes
made to forecast overnight lows and to sky conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main forecast concern will be the potential for dense fog development
tonight across portions of NE OK/NW AR. Crossover temperatures support
fog in the BVO area and especially across NW AR TAF sites where vertical
temp/dew-point profiles appear favorable, including limited turbulent
mixing. LIFR conditions will be likely late tonight and remain possible
through mid morning across aforementioned areas before conditions
begin to improve with the fog lifting.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have been slow to clear today, but we are finally seeing
some clearing from the west and south. The clearing trend should
continue this evening, which will set the stage for areas of fog
late tonight and early Saturday across mainly the northeast half
of our forecast area.

Will keep the weekend forecast dry for now, but cannot totally
rule out a stray morning shower or thunderstorm near the northwest
corner of our forecast area either Saturday or Sunday. A warming
trend will take place, with temperatures climbing back to near the
seasonal normals.

An active week still looks on tap for next week as southwest upper
flow develops and impulses move out of the southwest U.S. Trying
to keep the best periods for convection is nearly impossible, but
the bottom line is we will see daily chances of showers and
storms, and some of the storms will likely be severe. It still
appears the most widespread severe weather may occur around Friday
of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

AVIATION...12


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