Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG IS CAUSING TEMPORARY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT A FEW SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE WARM UP HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST...DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RECIRCULATION OF COOLER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FOR THE MOST PART
GONE NOW ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY FOG...SO WE SHOULD WARM UP
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN YESTERDAY. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE
WIND STILL SUGGESTS SOME COOL AIR RECIRCULATION...AND THUS
FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN TEMPERED BACK SLIGHTLY FROM LOW 90S TO
UPPER 80S.

MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE QUITE A BIT TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH
THRU KANSAS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR STORMS. STILL NOT GOING CRAZY WITH
POPS HOWEVER...WITH WARM MID LVL TEMPS AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE
MID LVL RIDGE REBUILDS BACK OVER OK/AR...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH DETAILS DIFFER AMONGST THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE GENERAL THEME IS THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEXT WORK WEEK COULD
START OFF ON A PLEASANT UN-JULY LIKE NOTE. STAY TUNED.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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