Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.