Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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399
FXUS64 KTSA 191132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sub-IFR fog across portions of NE OK and NW AR will gradually
trend toward IFR or even MVFR as stratus moves in from the
southwest and disrupts radiational cooling of fog layer. Farther
south at KMLC and KFSM, expect mainly MVFR cigs thru the morning.
A gradual trend toward VFR is expected at all sites by afternoon.
Storms should hold off for the E OK sites until aft 02Z and even
possibly 06Z and may not affect the W AR sites until closer to 12Z
Monday morning. Expect mainly MVFR conditions tonight.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1140 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mostly clear skies currently prevail with patchy light fog
beginning to develop. Shallow moist layer will develop northward
overnight with the expectation of low stratus developing
especially over E OK and points westward. Stratus build down into
a fog layer is also possible but appears more probable west of the
forecast area. MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast through morning
w/ a trend toward MVFR to low VFR conditions during the afternoon.
Convection developing to our west will be spreading into E OK
terminals near the end of this forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 924 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Skies have cleared and temperatures have dropped to near the
forecast lows in many places, so will lower overnight lows a
couple degrees. Still expect some low clouds and patchy fog to
form later tonight and early Sunday morning, but the eastern
extent of the clouds/fog is in doubt. The latest experimental HRRR
keeps far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas relatively cloud
free through Sunday morning. The only change made at this time to
the cloud forecast is lowering sky cover the next few hours based
on current conditions.

Update on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  60  69  46 /  20  80  40  10
FSM   73  57  67  52 /  10  70  80  30
MLC   72  59  69  46 /  20  80  50  10
BVO   70  57  71  41 /  10  80  40  10
FYV   72  58  65  46 /  10  70  80  30
BYV   73  58  69  48 /  10  50  80  40
MKO   70  56  68  46 /  20  80  60  10
MIO   72  60  69  47 /  10  60  60  10
F10   71  58  69  47 /  20  80  40  10
HHW   71  61  69  50 /  20  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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