Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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