Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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752
FXUS64 KTSA 160846
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest for this morning`s forecast are: 1)
Thunder chances, timing and severity today and tonight with a cold
front and again Thursday night thru Friday night in an active NW
flow pattern, 2) Near advisory heat expected ahead of a cold
front today and finally 3) More persistent and typical August heat
returns for the weekend into next week.

All of the short term hi res models indicate that there will be a
band of scattered pre-frontal showers and storms over our area
today, likely due to increasing synoptic scale lift from a strong
shortwave trough over the central CONUS. Speaking of the cold
front, the NAM/HRRR/ARW/NMM all suggest that the front and
associated convection will not enter our area until 00Z or a bit
after. The timing of the higher pops with the front has been
shifted back a bit based on this data. Most of the area will be
dry on Thursday with storm chances returning late Thursday night
as warm advection increases ahead of a secondary wave diving
southeast over the Plains. Storms will probably fire again to our
N and W Friday and then track southeast across the region Friday
night. Elected not to go likely PoPs during this time due to the
drier trending ECMWF. Once this secondary wave passes by, this
should spell the end of this atypically active August regime that
has been an absolute bear to forecast.

Dewpoints yesterday were crazy, with values near 80 degrees in
some spots across eastern Oklahoma. After perusing precip H2O GOES
16 imagery I don`t see any reason why today will be any different.
The insanely high humidity and temps in the low 90s lead to heat
advisory criteria over a good portion of our area yesterday.
However, uncertainties regarding cloud cover and precip potential
with the pre-frontal convective band today will preclude any heat
headlines at this time. The day shift will need to monitor the
situation today and issue if needed.

Mid level height rises will occur over the weekend and into early
next week. Temperatures will rise to at least average and rain
chances will be low at best, and mainly during the heat of the
day. More typical August weather returns, imagine that.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  90  69 /  50  70   0  30
FSM   89  75  90  72 /  40  50  40  20
MLC   87  75  90  72 /  40  50  20  30
BVO   90  67  89  64 /  40  70   0  20
FYV   85  70  85  64 /  40  50  20  10
BYV   87  73  86  64 /  50  40  30  10
MKO   87  72  88  70 /  50  50  10  30
MIO   87  70  87  65 /  50  70  10  10
F10   87  72  89  71 /  50  60  10  30
HHW   89  76  91  74 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....30



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