Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 120853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WHICH
WILL RAISE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL THOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
AS WINDS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. A SUBTLE LEAD SPEED MAX WILL PRECEDE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY STORM INITIATION WILL FOCUS ON THE COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE NEAR OSAGE COUNTY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DEVELOPMENT ON THE DRYLINE FURTHER SOUTH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESSER THAN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...WITH CELL INTERACTIONS AND
MORE COMPLICATED STORM EVOLUTION EXPECTED WITH TIME AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES. ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM ON THE DRYLINE AND STAY
CLEAR OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
MAINTAINING UPDRAFT INTEGRITY. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP
AND MAX HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL IS AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH AT THIS
TIME APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT.

SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH MONDAY FEELING VERY RAW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. FORECAST SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...HOWEVER A LIGHT RAIN / SNOW MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK / NW AR WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE A LATE SEASON FREEZE LIKELY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS MODERATE QUICKLY FOR MID WEEK...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCE REMAIN
ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT WARRANTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  64  77  40 /  10  10  60  70
FSM   80  61  75  50 /  10  10  50  80
MLC   79  63  75  42 /  10  10  30  70
BVO   83  64  76  39 /  10  10  80  50
FYV   76  59  70  41 /  10  10  50  90
BYV   76  59  71  42 /  10  10  50  90
MKO   82  61  75  41 /  10  10  50  80
MIO   80  62  74  39 /  10  10  70  80
F10   81  63  77  40 /  10  10  50  70
HHW   80  62  76  48 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





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