Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. A cold front has now
worked its way thru all of the TAF sites. Warm advection on the
cool side of the front has brought scattered showers and storms
across NW AR, which could impact these sites over the next few
hours (except KFSM and KFYV which should remain south of the
activity). Strong NE winds behind the front will gradually abate
and will veer to E by Wednesday afternoon. Low end VFR cigs
(4-6kft) will prevail at all sites as moist layer in short term
time height plots remains at or above 850mb, due to the dry air at
the surface being ushered in with the front. The 00Z NAM guidance
has now come nicely in line with this forecast, compared to the
IFR or even sub-IFR junk that was the 12Z run.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 924 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front now extends near Fort Smith west to Webbers
Falls/Eufaula per latest mesonet obs. Area radar data showed
several fine lines consolidating with a secondary surge marking
the true colder airmass, which moved through Tulsa between 4-5pm.
Temperatures this evening range from the mid 50s in far northeast
Oklahoma to 79 at Fort Smith.

Active convection is ongoing across southern Missouri/northern
Arkansas in area of post-frontal elevated instability. Latest
HRRR/RAP guidance suggests this area will remain agitated
overnight and this is supported by current radar trends. The 00z
sounding from SGF sampled nearly 1000 j/kg of elevated CAPE
and this appears to be the region where the 850mb front is
located. Highest chance POPs will be maintained across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas for the overnight.
Updated zones will be sent shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  59  51  78 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   55  63  49  79 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   55  66  55  79 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   45  57  48  76 /  20  30  30  10
FYV   47  58  45  73 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   43  57  43  71 /  30  30  20  10
MKO   53  59  49  78 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   43  56  48  76 /  20  30  20  10
F10   52  61  54  76 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   62  68  56  81 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.