058
FXUS63 KGLD 130701
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
101 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures persist across portions of the area on
  Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Scattered storms may develop in northeast CO and areas
  situated along/south of I-70 in KS Thursday afternoon. An
  isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, if storms develop.

- Thunderstorms anticipated to develop in CO Fri afternoon will
  track eastward into KS-NE late Fri aft/eve. Severe storms
  capable of producing large hail/damaging winds are possible,
  in addition to locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
  flooding, especially Friday eve/night.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions
persist area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s
as of 100 PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently
traversing the area, providing a southerly fetch for areas east
of Highway 25, and a west- northwest flow behind it. Gusts
around 30 mph are occurring on either side of the boundary.

Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated
rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will
be followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday
afternoon/evening.

First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA
through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25
area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially
for locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent
dewpts in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape
values on soundings does show some instability, so have followed
the NamNest and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the
southeast(Gove. Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms
could produce some strong gusts with inverted-v profiles.

With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies
providing westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup,
guidance puts a weak shortwave over the north/east portion of
the ridge towards the 06z- 09z Thursday timeframe up into
portion of northeast Colorado. With weak instability/moisture
available, continued isolated wording for a 15 pop for a rw/trw.
Winds would be main threat concern.

Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a
slow trek eastward into the southern Plains for
afternoon/evening hours. This will allow a stronger shortwave to
work off the central Rockies during the afternoon hours, and
interact with a surface low over southeast Colorado, with a
front extending eastward into Kansas. CAMs are showing rw/trw
potential to develop from west to east over the CWA. Strong to
severe storms are expected. Current guidance has DCape values
around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are around
1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri- state
region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and
wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east
overnight.

For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from
the lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper
60s east of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may
only drop into the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot
day(850 mb temps +28c to +33c before front gets established) on
tap with daytime highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest
areas along/south of I- 70. This will give way to overnight lows
Thursday night in a range from the lower 60s west into the
upper 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

At the start of the long term period, flow aloft backs from west-
northwesterly to become west-southwesterly as an upper low centered
over Saskatchewan progresses eastward. Mostly sunny skies and near-
triple digit heat on Sunday will give way to a few chances for
showers/storms Sunday evening as a shortwave moves through the area.
We`ll then be looking at another low pressure system entering the
Pacific Northwest at the start of the new work week, and out ahead
of it, increasing southerly to southwesterly flow into the area,
giving us breezy to windy conditions. Chances for showers/storms
continue Monday evening followed by additional chances arriving with
the mid-week system as a front moves in. Some slight relief from the
heat will also be provided mid-week, albeit still above normal for
this time of year, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the
80s to low 90s. Overnight lows start out generally in the 60s to low
70s, falling into the mid-upper 50s and 60s mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

GLD: VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will prevail through
the TAF period. Light and variable winds -- associated with a
weak surface low over the region -- will predominate through
Thursday morning, shifting to the NE-ENE at 12-17 knots mid-
late Thursday afternoon (21-00Z). While isolated to scattered
diurnal convection cannot be ruled out ~21-00Z.. confidence in
convective development is low enough to preclude explicit
mention with the 06Z TAF issuance.

MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through
the TAF period. Light and variable winds this evening and
overnight will shift to the NW-N at 12-17 knots shortly after
sunrise.. gradually veering to the NNE and NE during the day on
Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BV