966
FXUS63 KLMK 270735
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory continues through this evening.

* Chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms each day
  through Tuesday.

* Less humid conditions arrive next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Slightly weakened upper ridge remains draped east to west across the
Ohio Valley. Hot and humid air mass remains in place in the low
levels, and we`ll have fairly similar conditions to Thursday,
perhaps with a bit less convective coverage. Still looks like
scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and while shear is too weak to
support organized severe wx, there is plenty of instability for your
typical pulse storm hazards, i.e. gusty or locally damaging winds
and torrential rainfall.

Heat Advisory carries on for one more day, as temps will rise
quickly this morning and crack 90 in many locations before noon.
There is a sufficient window of opportunity for 100+ heat index
values before convective outflow can provide any relief.

Any storms should fade fairly quickly around sunset, leaving behind
another warm and muggy night. Will hang on to a 20 POP in quite a
few spots just because of the tendency for such a juicy air mass to
spark an isolated nighttime storm or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Unsettled pattern this weekend into early next week with weak zonal
flow aloft and a juicy low-level air mass in place, supporting
mostly diurnally driven thunderstorms each day.

On Saturday, an upper shortwave trof moving east across the Great
Lakes will push a cold front toward the Ohio Valley, but the
boundary will hang up across Illinois and Indiana. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are possible, but will be mostly garden-
variety convection as shear is too weak to support severe wx, and
the better focus for training and heavy rainfall will be to our
north. Could still see a stray pulse storm that would be capable of
producing gusty, locally damaging winds.

Another peak in precip chances will come Monday and Tuesday as a
sharper upper trof finally drives a cold front solidly into the Ohio
Valley. Expect widespread showers and storms with that system, with
severe risk limited to pulse storm hazards as the stronger wind
fields remain to our north.

Latter half of next week will feature a low-amplitude upper trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada, with NW flow over the Upper
Midwest helping to build a bubble of sfc high pressure into the Ohio
Valley. Wednesday through Friday will have near-normal temperatures,
but manageable dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Precip chances
will be limited to isolated diurnal pop-ups, mainly across southern
Kentucky but starting to expand northward on Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Quiet night with light winds from the south, perhaps going variable
or even calm at BWG. Some question around fog potential, especially
after generous rainfall amounts at SDF late Thursday afternoon.
Given that SDF is our least fog-prone terminal and we still have a
light SE breeze and fairly wide temp/dewpoint spread, will not
include any restrictions to vis.

Winds will increase out of the SW to near 10 kt by midday, with sct
diurnal cu. Expect better coverage of convection, so at least a
PROB30 is warranted. Tried to focus in on the most likely time for
storms, but initiation could be a bit on the earlier side. The PROB
groups will include 3SM vis, but brief IFR restrictions are still
possible. After sunset look for light south winds and mid-level
debris clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS