163
FXUS63 KLMK 081039
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
639 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Low level clouds will clear from north to south today. More
   seasonal temperatures expected for today and into the weekend.

*  Friday morning low temperatures could be the coolest we have seen
   so far this season, with upper 30s possible north of the Kentucky
   Parkways.

*  Dry conditions are expected through the weekend.

*  Gradual warming trend possible for early next week, possibly
   seeing highs hit the low 80s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

We are completely post-frontal as of this morning, with KY Mesonet
obs showing NW flow across the area. Low level moisture continues to
linger however, resulting in a low stratus deck this morning. Per
ACARS soundings and pireps, the stratus layer is estimated to be
around 1500 ft. Have not seen any drizzle reports this morning, and
would really need to see a deeper cloud layer to be more supportive
for any drizzle. With the cloud layer slowly shifting south, overall
conditions will gradually improve throughout the morning. Winds have
also been a bit breezy this morning, which is in response to a
strong sfc pressure gradient following behind the front.

Clouds will linger past sunrise especially south of the KY Pkwys,
but we`ll scatter out by the early afternoon, leading to mostly
sunny conditions for just about all of the region. Strong sfc high
pressure will be sliding across the Great Lakes today, which will
continue to support a tighter pressure gradient over the Ohio
Valley. We`ll see breezy winds continue for most of the day, with
N/NE wind gusts possibly exceeding 20 mph. This CAA regime will help
keep temps in check with low-to-mid 70s across the board despite
plenty of sunshine.

Clear skycover and NE winds continue tonight, with the pressure
gradient continuing to support increase winds through the overnight.
CAA pattern and post-frontal airmass will help temps cool into the
40s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

===== Thursday through Friday Night =====

Strong sfc high pressure will be sliding across the Great Lakes on
Thursday, which will continue to provide a CAA northeast flow into
our area. Temps are expected to fall well below normal as we get our
coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Highs for Thursday are
forecast to remain in the upper 60s for most, but may touch 70
across our south. Additionally, the sfc pressure gradient on the
southern side of this expansive high pressure will be strong enough
to support breezy NE wind conditions, with 10-15 mph sustained winds
and gusts up to 20 mph possible.

By Thursday night, the pressure gradient will relax as the sfc high
shifts over New York. With clear skycover and light winds, Thursday
night into Friday morning is set to have the greatest potential for
exceptional radiational cooling and the coolest temps we have seen
this season. Temps are forecast to range from the upper 30s along
and north of the KY Pkwys to mid 40s along the KY/TN border. It`s
possible some of our typical cool spots, especially in any valleys,
could drop to the mid-30s.

After the chilly start on Friday, our temps will rise to around
normal for this time of year, with low 70s during the afternoon.
Winds will be much lighter during the day with the sfc high focused
over the northeast by then. Should be a fairly nice day for our
area.

===== Next Weekend and Early Next Week =====

Before sunrise on Saturday, we could see increasing cloud cover over
the area as an upper shortwave deepens into an upper low pressure
system over the Great Lakes. This upper low will begin a southward
track over the northern Ohio Valley early Saturday, and will trail a
weak sfc front through central Illinois and Indiana. However, this
front will lack any significant moisture as it works south during
the day, and we expect a dry forecast to continue for the weekend.

By Sunday, the upper low will shift over the Appalachians, and may
interact with a developing upper low associated with a coastal
trough on the East Coast. Upper ridging will be building across the
central US, and with East Coast moisture expected to remain east of
the Appalachians, a dry forecast continues for Sunday and into early
next week.

Temps will feature a gradual warming into next week, potentially
seeing 80s again by Monday in the BWG area, and more widespread by
Tuesday and Wednesday next week. CPC temperature outlooks give a
good indication of this.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The low stratus cloud deck continues to slide south this morning,
with SDF and HNB already SKC and VFR. LEX will be next to see flight
cat improvements from IFR, followed by RGA and BWG. Winds will be
somewhat breezy today, with sustained winds from the N/NE around
10kt possible. VFR will prevail for the rest of the forecast period
once we clear out this low stratus deck.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP