


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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960 FXUS63 KLMK 161053 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 653 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. * Warm and windy conditions are expected on Saturday. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely, with high temperatures approaching daily records Saturday afternoon. * A strong cold front will move across the area late Saturday into Sunday morning. There is low confidence in a few strong or severe storms with the front. Rainfall amounts should range from 0.50- 1.50" in most areas, with isolated heavier totals possible. * More windy conditions are likely on Sunday, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 This morning, a backdoor cold front is settling across the mid- and upper Ohio Valley with sfc high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A band of stratus clouds sandwiched between the cooler air mass to the northeast and the warmer air mass to the southwest will pivot across the northern half of the CWA this morning before mixing out later today, and mostly sunny skies are expected for all areas by this afternoon. There should be enough of a pressure gradient in place for a steady NE breeze around 10 mph throughout the day. Modest CAA should keep highs today a few degrees below yesterday, with afternoon readings ranging from around 70 degrees in the KY Bluegrass to the mid-to-upper 70s in the Pennyrile and Purchase regions. This evening into tonight, mostly clear skies are expected with a few thin high clouds moving in overnight from the southwest. With the sfc pressure ridge axis over the Appalachians tonight, a light easterly wind should continue in more exposed areas overnight, with sheltered valleys and rural areas more likely to see calm winds. As a result, we should see a pronounced ridge-valley split in temperatures Friday morning, with lows ranging from near 40 degrees in the coolest valleys to near 50 degrees in the Louisville metro, as well as for areas south and west of Bowling Green. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Friday and Friday Night... A shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will shift the upper level ridge axis over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the day on Friday. In the low levels, surface high pressure will become established over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon, allowing for some warmer return flow to begin. This should allow for highs on Friday to be a few degrees above persistence in spite of a chilly start Friday morning. There should still be a general NE-SW gradient in temperatures, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 70s across the Bluegrass region to near 80 degrees across south central and SW Kentucky. Friday night into Saturday morning, mid- and upper-level height falls to the NW of the region should strengthen the pressure/height gradient over the region, leading to stronger SW flow aloft and S/SE winds near the surface. This should keep temperatures considerably milder overnight, with lows about 10 degrees warmer across the area compared to Friday morning. This Weekend... Saturday, broad mid- and upper-level troughing over the central and northern Plains will begin to approach the Mississippi Valley along with an associated sfc cold front. As the pressure/height gradient over the region strengthens during the day, S/SW winds will increase, promoting strong WAA. Temperatures should surge into the 80s across the area Saturday afternoon, with mid- and upper-80s possible across southern KY. Saturday evening into Saturday night, an H5 jet will intensify upstream of the mid-level trough axis, resulting in height falls and amplification of the trough as it crosses the Miss. Valley. Upper- level diffluence and vort. advection should contribute to deepening of the sfc low which should track across northern IN and toward Lake Huron by Sunday morning. Low-level response to height falls aloft should result in a 50-60 kt LLJ moving across the Ohio Valley Saturday night. As the LLJ passes, PWAT values should increase to around 1.6-1.7 immediately ahead of the cold front, with a line of showers and thunderstorms moving across the region late Saturday evening through mid Sunday morning. The potential for strong or severe thunderstorms continues to look very uncertain for our area, as while the wind/shear profile will be quite impressive, limited instability will constrain the overall potential. Given that the peak timing for storms in our area looks to be between 06-15Z Sunday, this will fall during the diurnal minimum in instability, and model soundings do show poor low-level lapse rates with most of the instability being above a near-sfc stable layer. On the other hand, if any stronger cells are able to develop, it would not be particularly difficult to get near severe- level winds down to the surface. Precipitation totals have trended down over the past few model runs, and convection along the front should be progressive enough to avoid much training of heavier rain rates. While isolated swaths of 1-2+" of rain are possible, substantial flooding issues are not expected at this time. Behind the cold front on Sunday, steepening llvl lapse rates should bring about a second wave of stronger wind gusts as CAA overspreads the area. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index value is above 0.8 for wind gusts on Sunday, with a Shift of Tails around 1, indicating high confidence in unusually strong wind gusts. Would expect widespread 25 to 35 mph wind gusts during the day on Sunday, with the typically windy ASOS locations possibly exceeding 40 mph at times. Given the strong cold advection, temperatures should be held down in the 60s during the day on Sunday. Winds will relax Sunday night as high pressure moves into the region from the west. This should allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Monday morning. Early-to-Mid Next Week... The large scale pattern is favored to remain progressive and relatively active over the first half of next week with a series of upper-level disturbances and associated sfc fronts moving across the central and eastern CONUS. The trough associated with the weekend disturbance will be over southeast Canada on Monday, with low-amplitude upper ridging moving across the Miss. Valley. Monday should be a dry day, with the influence of the upper ridge and departing sfc high contributing to modest temperature recovery. A moderating temperature trend should continue Monday night into Tuesday as SW flow increases ahead of the next disturbance. Model agreement is relatively good in another upper trough and sfc cold front sliding across the region next Tuesday into Wednesday, with 12-18 hours timing discrepancies between the various medium- range guidance. At this time, most ensemble guidance depicts a relatively broad/open trough, limiting amplification potential and resulting in a relatively uneventful FROPA with modest amounts of precipitation and breezy gradient winds. However, we`ll continue to monitor this disturbance as a more amplified upper/sfc wave could introduce another strong storm chance during the middle of next week. Temperatures would be expected to fall again behind this system next Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Low-end VFR stratus continues to linger this morning across most forecast sites, with BWG being the only site to remain clear thus far. Expect this area of stratus to continue to pivot westward later this morning before ultimately scattering out by early afternoon. High pressure over the Great Lakes this morning will gradually slide to the east and southeast through the forecast period, with E/NE winds expected to pick up to between 6-12 kt later today. Winds will relax tonight, with VFR conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the current forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...CSG