930
FXUS63 KLMK 121853
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
153 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and warm weather pattern setting up across the region through
  the weekend.

* A few showers possible on Friday morning through the early
  afternoon as a weak disturbance moving through.

* Unsettled weather pattern returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure to the south of the region and a quiet northwesterly
flow has allowed for the lower Ohio Valley to see sunny skies,
breezy southwesterly winds, and a dry airmass. Bumped temperatures
up just a bit earlier this afternoon due to the overachieving
southwesterly flow pattern.

This evening, the pressure gradient will slacken and high pressure
will extend north into the region. Due to this, winds will gradually
weaken, becoming calm to light by early Thursday morning. Low
temperatures will be similar to Wednesday morning, due to efficient
radiational cooling. Could see some patchy fog development in the
early morning, which will burn off soon after sunrise.

Thursday, high pressure and quiet northwesterly flow will continue
to bring quiet weather and warming temperatures. Expecting to see
high temperatures in the low-mid 60s and some warmer spots brushing
the upper 60s. Will likely see dry air mix down Thursday afternoon,
which will decrease minimum RH into the upper 20% and low 30% range.
By the end of the day, we will see some upper sky cover move into
the region as a weak vort lobe passes through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Thursday Night through Friday Night...

Thursday night, ridging will build and move east out of the upper
Midwest and towards the Ohio Valley. Also, the surface high pressure
will slowly begin to slide east of the region, which will bring weak
southerly flow at the surface. A weak 30kt LLJ is expected to
overspread the region on Friday morning. Additionally, weak
vorticity will stream over the region. All of these weak features,
will bring light lift and shallow low level moisture. This will
likely be just enough for light showers Friday morning through the
early afternoon. Coverage would be sparse, isolated to scattered
over mainly areas west of I-65.

Otherwise, Friday we will continue to warm into the mid to upper 60s
and about 10 degrees above normal. We will likely have some
lingering sky cover and steady overnight winds to prevent efficient
radiational cooling. Therefore, temperatures will be quite mild
overnight in the upper 40s and low 50s.


Saturday through Mid Next Week...

Upper ridging will move over the region on Saturday, leading to the
warmest temperatures for the week. Looking to see temperatures about
15 degrees above normal in the low to mid 70s. Saturday should be a
very pleasant day, with plenty of sunshine.

Sunday morning, a weak cold front will move through the region, and
light showers are possible, but lift and return flow is weak.
Temperatures will still remain above normal for Sunday and
Monday.

The northeastern CONUS will remain over broad troughing and the
lower Ohio Valley will be on the periphery. On Tuesday, a trough and
developing low pressure system will move through the central Plains
and into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will bring a low pressure
and cold front in the vicinity of the lower Ohio Valley and bring
the next good chance for showers and storms, depending on the track
of the low pressure center.

After this system moves through high pressure will build in behind,
allowing for a brief break in active weather.


(From Previous Discussion) Extended Forecast Discussion...

Fairly active weather pattern looks likely to continue into the
extended forecast period.  High latitude blocking across Canada is
expected to intensify late next week as a strong -NAO pattern gets
underway.  This high latitude blocking will give the models fits and
run-to-run continuity will be rather poor.  More recent signal
analysis continues to target the 11/20-21 period with a strong
signal moving through the region.  Model agreement here remains
rather poor, given the pattern, but the Euro remains quite
consistent with a system moving through here.  Potential for heavy
rainfall remains a concern along with the potential for
strong/severe storms.  Given the aforementioned blocking, exact
details and evolution of this system will have to be fine-tuned in
later forecasts.

Otherwise, no real changes to the remainder of the extended forecast
period.  An active weather pattern is likely to continue with storms
systems coming through the region leading into Thanksgiving.  High
latitude blocking pattern is expected to persist into late November
and model teleconnection patterns continue to suggest a rather
strong -AO/-NAO pattern.  Latest MJO forecast have good model
continuity here with the MJO pulse pushing from phase 6 into phase
7.  This MJO surge combined with an emerging positive east Asian
mountain torque should yield a stronger westerly wind momentum
leading to higher latitude blocking over the north Pacific.  This
would send a ridge into AK and lead to a corresponding tanking of
the EPO.

As this all occurs, forecast confidence continues to increase that
we`ll see a sudden warming of the stratosphere over Canada by late
November.  Pretty rare to see a sudden warming this early in the
season. Sudden stratospheric warming events usually precede some
perturbation of the PV which can unleash colder air masses into the
US.  The Euro weeklies out through December have been showing the
development of a ridge west, trough east pattern for much of
December which is in line with historical Decembers that feature La
Nina in the Pacific. As stated yesterday, a quick start to winter
across the central and eastern US is looking increasingly likely and
December could end up being very cold for our area with increasing
threats of wintry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
has allowed for clear skies. The pressure gradient is steadily
weakening, which will allow winds to gradually weaken through the
overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW/MJ