Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

There will be a gradient in moisture levels across the region today,
with more moisture west of I-65. That should manifest itself first
as some patches of fog early this morning. Yesterday we did see some
isolated convection form within this moist airmass, but that came
with some upper level forcing crossing the region. Today, that
forcing will be weaker and farther west, so will keep our forecast
dry. Drier air will come in from the west Tuesday. This dry air and
lack of any advection will mean temperatures continuing around 90
for highs and lows in the 60s.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Wednesday still is our transition day, as a cold front slips
underneath the large ridge that has been over our area. Precipitable
waters ahead of this boundary look to range from 1.5-1.8 inches. The
ridging aloft should really limit convection, and models have
flip/flopped over the last few days on whether we`d actually get any
rain out of this front. Decided to go with slight chance of showers
along and north of I-64.

We should see that ridging aloft flatten out by the end of the week,
as a trough moves across the northeast U.S. for the weekend. Dry air
in place as surface high pressure builds into the Central U.S. will
mean a rain-free forecast again, but this time with temperatures
more like they should be for the end of September, with lows in
several places in the 40s this weekend.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Light and variable winds expected for the period with some high
clouds streaming at times from the southeast. Patchy fog will
develop again late tonight into tomorrow morning at some TAF sites,
and could be locally dense at times, with visibilities 1/2 mile or
less. Fog should burn off shortly after sunrise.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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