Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 020655
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2015
In the near term, mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist across
the forecast area this morning. Some sprinkles will also be
possible, mainly across south-central and southern KY. Some patchy
fog will also be seen in some places. However, a light
northeasterly wind may remain high enough to keep widespread fog
from developing. Temperatures through sunrise will remain in the
For today, upper level low will slowly translate eastward across
Tennessee today. As this occurs, some drier air will infiltrate in
from the north and northeast. However, low level moisture looks to
remain plentiful enough for mostly cloudy skies across the region
through the morning hours, with some breaks in the clouds likely as
we head through the afternoon hours. Some scattered showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible down along the KY/TN
border region and down in the Lake Cumberland area. Temperatures
will remain very cool for early June with highs only topping out in
the lower 70s. For the tonight period, partly to mostly cloudy
conditions are expected with lows dropping into the mid-upper 50s.
The upper level low will continue to slowly work into the southern
Appalachians by Wednesday. Combination of the low and diurnal
heating should result in some more scattered showers and storms,
though these look to remain more limited to areas generally east of
I-65. Temperatures look to slowly moderate through the period with
highs on Wednesday topping out in the upper 70s to the very low 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015
The upper level cutoff low centered over eastern TN at the beginning
of the long term period will slowly move eastward through the end of
the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft will then set up across the
forecast area and will continue into early next week. At the surface
a weak low pressure system will drag a front through on Saturday,
with another front moving in towards the end of the period.
With the upper level low east of the region on Thursday and Friday,
there will be a lack of upper level support for organized
convection. However, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid
80s in the afternoons, isolated to scattered storms could pop up
each afternoon. This diurnally driven convection should wane in the
evening as the sun sets. However, there will be a chance for showers
or storms Friday night as the aforementioned low pressure system
moves into the area. These will continue Saturday as this feature
moves through. Thus, coverage of storms will be a bit higher on
Saturday than the previous two days.
There looks to be a chance for a lull in precipitation on Saturday
night into part of Sunday before the next front moves in. This front
should be stronger with more widespread showers and storms
accompanying it. The models are still a bit off on the timing of
this system, so will not carry likely pops in any on period until
there is more agreement in the guidance. High temperatures through
the weekend will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1251 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015
A slow moving upper low will drift slowly eastward across the TN
Valley overnight. Mid-level moisture continues to depart across the
region, but low-level moisture remains plentiful for low cloudiness
and fog for the overnight hours. In general, mainly IFR ceilings
are expected to prevail overnight. MVFR visibilities due to
fog/mist are expected and some IFR visibilities may develop at KBWG
and KLEX. KSDF most likely will not see visibility restrictions,
but a drop to IFR ceilings looks likely. Surface winds will remain
light out of the northeast through the period. After sunrise,
previous forecast continues to look on track at this point. A
gradual lifting and scouring out of clouds is expected with VFR
conditions returning to the region by the afternoon hours.