Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1205 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

An upper trough axis is passing east of the region at this time.
Surface high pressure will move over the lower Ohio Valley tonight,
and combined with clear skies will allow for excellent radiational
cooling. Lows should bottom out in the 20s. Model time-height
sections indicate another small batch of moisture coming in here
early Thursday that may provide another round of cloud cover. That
surface high then should remain over the Appalachians through
Thursday night, keeping our winds light, with perhaps a weak
southerly component. This should make early Friday a few degrees
warmer than early Thursday.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Southerly flow will strengthen Friday night/Saturday as another
likely dry trough crosses the area. The only model with some very
light QPF, 0.01-0.02", in it is the 09Z SREF, which has a known wet
bias. So will keep our forecast dry. The southerly winds should make
Saturday a little warmer than Friday, but cloud cover in the morning
could temper things a bit, thus have temperatures about the same for
each day.

Surface high pressure will move southeast into the Tennessee Valley
Sunday. Our next chance for rain is focusing on late Tuesday to
Wednesday based on various models. Think the GFS is a bit too early
with its precip into here on Tuesday, and the Euro may be the better
choice with its 12Z version holding things off even to Wednesday
night. Southerly flow will pick up noticeably Monday and Tuesday,
with warmer readings each day. Dynamics of this midweek system could
bring us some severe weather, but latest CFS Severe Weather Guidance
is not too excited just yet. Will trend the forecast up to say
slight chance thunder Wednesday. Expect over the next several
cycles we`ll see some timing/location differences, so will cap the
blended model guidance at 20 percent for Tuesday and 30 percent
for Wednesday.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1202 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
remain light and variable through the morning before starting to
take on a southerly/southwesterly direction by late afternoon.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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