Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291122
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, FOLLOWED BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 25 MPH BY
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF
DODGE CITY BY DAWN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AT
10 TO 20 MPH. IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 44 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY, PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT, THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ENDING A
BRIEF WARMING TREND. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
USHERS COOLER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF KANSAS WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS KANSAS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT
WHILE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  41  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  41  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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