Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1127 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Short term forecast concerns are hot temperatures and high heat
indices along with thunderstorms each evening.

The large high pressure area aloft remains centered over the
central and southern high plains through today and tonight. The
ridge extending into the northern plains flattens through Friday
and Saturday with more zonal westerly flow across the northern
tier of states as a series of short wave troughs moves through the
flow and the high pressure center retrogrades more over the
southwestern U.S.

With southerly surface flow in place ahead of the surface trough
waffling over the western portion of the forecast area the next
couple days, high temperatures in the lower 100s are expected
along with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. This will produce
heat indices around 105 or greater on Thursday and Friday mainly
along and east of a line from Benkelman, Nebraska to Gove, Kansas.
Temperatures will remain hot through Saturday, but will not be as
hot as Thursday and Friday

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected each day through Saturday as the short wave troughs aloft
move across the central rockies and across the plains mainly north
of the forecast area. As the upper pattern sags south and a cold
front approached, the favored area of thunderstorms sags further
south across the forecast area each day. There is a marginal
possibility of severe thunderstorms this evening across the
northwest portion of the forecast area, as has been the case over
the last few days. The marginal threat of severe storms returns on
Saturday across the entire forecast area as the path of short
waves moving through the upper flow takes a more southerly route
across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A cold front will approach the region on Sunday and provide a focus
for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Areas in the northeastern
portions of the CWA could see storms persist through sunrise on
Monday as the front stalls and begins to retract north and eastward.
A weak shortwave and associated trailing theta-e boundary will be
just northwest of the CWA and provide a focus for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening before moving east overnight.
Temperatures sunday through Tuesday will be around the seasonal
average in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Lingering thunderstorms will exit the region to the east Wednesday
morning with dry weather expected the remainder of the day as high
pressure builds to the west. Temperatures will begin increasing once
more in the presence of the building ridge and we could once more
see above normal temps in the middle to upper 90s heading into the
middle/end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. A surface trough has moved
through KGLD but will be near KMCK most of the day causing light
winds to be variable. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated along
the surface trough this afternoon which may affect KMCK. Storms
should remain south of KGLD.  Variable winds at KMCK will turn
more to the north overnight then become east Friday morning.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-

NE...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081.



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