Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170333
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
833 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

The Tri State region currently resides wedged in between a
frontal boundary and high pressure to the east...low pressure to
the south and an approaching boundary over the Rockies. Mid level
flow remains out of a WSW direction. Closer to the CWA a weak
trough resides over the Front Range providing the area with
localized downslope SSW flow. These conditions are helping to
keep the CWA clear at this time with temps ranging in the mid 40s
thru the lower 50s. The continuing downslope conditions are still
providing dry conditions with dewpts only in the teens. The
continued warm temps will continue for the next several hours with
a slow decrease under clear skies. Surface moisture will try to
advect westward from the Central KS region that may help to lift
dewpts as temps drop further tonight...especially for eastern
zones. If current trend continues for next ESTF update...will
have to adjust T/Td numbers to reflect ongoing conditions. For now
going forecast looks good with only minor tweaks to temps with
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will be the main item to discuss.
Under sunny skies and westerly winds of 5 to 15 mph high
temperatures have soared into the 70s. Warm air advection and
westerly winds in advance of incoming cold front will keep
temperatures mild tonight for this time of year.

By late morning, front will have moved through most of the area.
Models are consistent in the amount of cooling. However in this
current flow pattern along with a dry ground and air mass, model
guidance has tended to be a little cool. Did cool off temperatures
but tended to stay near to slightly above the warmest guidance.
For a discussion of fire weather refer to that section below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

The majority of the long term is dry, but there are a couple of
decent opportunities for some precipitation for portions of the tri-
state region. Temperatures remain above normal throughout the
period.

A high amplitude ridge persists over the western CONUS Friday night
through the weekend, slowly making its way east. This keeps the
weather warm and dry into Sunday.

A trough develops and moves from the Rockies to the Plains late
Sunday as a cold front is pushed across the region. After
collaborating with neighbors, decided to slow down the onset of
precipitation, cutting PoPs for most of the area Sunday afternoon.
Current thinking is that this system will generate chances for
showers and the possibility for a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday
night generally for the southern half of the forecast area.

The disturbance continues east of the region on Monday, and flow
aloft becomes zonal through midweek. A second system develops and
reaches the west coast by late Wednesday. It moves towards the High
Plains on Thursday, bringing rain chances to the region once again.

Temperatures stay in the 60s Saturday through Wednesday, with most
locations seeing highs near 70 on Tuesday. Temperatures are slightly
cooler on Thursday with highs in the 50s. Lows gradually increase at
the start of the period, going from the 30s Friday night to the 40s
area wide Sunday night. This is followed by a return to the 30s for
the remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 409 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Conditions...VFR with SKC.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...SW around 10kts thru 10z Friday...then
becoming WNW. By 16z Friday...N 10-20kts. For KMCK...WNW around
10kts thru 06z Friday then SW. By 14z Friday...NW around
10kts...with gusts near 20kts from 17z Friday onward.

Low Level Winds Shear(LLWS)...16z-17z Friday onward. For KGLD
350@45kts. For KMCK 340@40kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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