Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1052 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 1052 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Updated forecast to add in Sherman and Yuma counties to the Red
Flag Warning. Latest obs showing these areas have hit or will hit
criteria by this afternoon. Wind gust grids adjusted to


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Forecast problems will be dense fog this morning, high temperatures
and fire weather concerns today and Monday, and a chance of
precipitation Tuesday night. Satellite continuing to show a
progressive/fast moving westerly flow from the Pacific into the
Conus. However, it has become a little more amplified along the west
coast of North America due to very strong system near the Pacific
Northwest and southwest Canada.

At jet level...the Ecmwf and Nam were doing the best. All the models
show an extremely strong jet over the eastern Pacific which will be
moving into area within the next few days. At mid levels...the
models were about the same and close. However, it looks like the Gfs
and Canadian have a slight advantage. The Canadian, Gfs and Nam
looked to be starting the best on the low level thermal field.

Models are not in great agreement through tomorrow, and have flip
flopped from yesterday. Confidence in wind and temperature forecasts
are low.

Today/tonight...Initial concern will fog. Evening shift issued the
dense fog advisory. Newer output is supports current advisory
although the 06z Nam is a little further west. HLC is already
reporting dense fog. Was initially not going to expand the advisory.
However, dense fog is now moving a little further west and is what
the 06z Nam indicated. So will expand the advisory one row of
counties further west.

Am concerned that a slower clearing of the fog and stratus could
dramatically affect temperatures. This combined with the further
south position of the front makes for a problematic temperature
forecast, especially the further north you go in my area. The same
general idea of hottest in the southwest with records in jeopardy,
and coolest in the north still looks intact, but there is high
potential for a temperature bust in both directions.

Difference in models from yesterday is that the cold front and the
surface low on the western end of this front are further south. This
has shoved axis of higher winds further south. Refer to the fire
weather discussion for further details on this.

Models, especially the high resolution guidance, are showing the
possibility of fog and stratus in the northeastern portion before
the stronger winds move in. The high resolution guidance has been
doing well with this and the Sref probabilities would support them.
So will insert some patchy fog late in the night.

Monday/Monday night...Fog looks to be done by mid morning. Very
strong jet will inching closer but still to the north and west of
our area. With this in mind, should be in rather strong subsidence
on the south side of this feature.

Models differ on the pressure/wind field with the differences in how
fast to bring the cold front in. Considering the shortwave trough is
moving into the north central portion of the country by 18z,
thinking a faster arrival of the front may end up being more right.
This of course affects the temperatures and winds which will affect
the current fire weather watch. More details on this in the fire
weather discussion below.

Due to the big differences in timing of front and subsequent
temperatures will probably stick with the blend and make little to
no changes except maybe for the far south which looks very warm.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Right rear quadrant of strong jet will be
near the northern portion of the area during the afternoon. This
right rear quadrant of this jet moves across the area during the
night. Also a rather strong shortwave moves across during the night.
Theta-e lapse rates are not great but okay. Also the moisture looks
to be more in the mid levels.

The forecast blend and other model output gives me a slight chance
light rain/light measurable in the northwest portion after midnight.
Considering the strength of the lift I am okay with that. Although I
could see the precipitation starting and ending sooner and also
covering more of the area.

Models are in reasonable agreement in cooling the high temperatures
into the middle 60s to lower 70s which could be 20 to 25 degrees
cooler than the previous day. So made no changes to the forecast

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Expect cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to start the
extended period before drier and warmer conditions return to the
region heading into the weekend.

At the start of the period, an upper trough is located over the
northern Plains. Cooler air filters into the region on Wednesday as
an upper level disturbance makes its way across the High Plains and
northwesterly flow develops aloft. Chances for rain showers persist
Wednesday morning through evening generally north of Interstate 70.
Looks like the disturbance generating these showers will be moving
out of the area quicker than previously forecast. The quicker pace
of PoPs, with precipitation chances exiting the region by midnight
before temperatures drop off, should keep precip in liquid form.

After Wednesday, dry weather prevails through the rest of the
period. Surface high pressure builds into the High Plains behind the
cold front impacting the region earlier in the week. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge builds over the western CONUS and progresses eastward
towards the area through the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures
to the forecast.

Temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s are anticipated on
Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a warming trend with highs in
the low to mid 70s by Saturday. Low temperatures stay generally in
the 30s to low 40s. One exception may be Thursday night, the coldest
night during the extended, with temperatures dipping down into the
upper 20s to mid 30s across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. The
winds will be light, less than 8 knots, and shifting through the
entire period.

For Kmck...vlifr conditions are expected through 17z. Then a brief
period of ifr/lifr will transition to vfr around 18z. Vfr
conditions are expected until late in the period. Around 09z mvfr
conditions will develop at the site. Light and variable winds are
expected through the entire period.


Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

For today... Relative humidities will be near 10 percent or less
across eastern Colorado and in west central  Kansas with slightly
higher humidities just to the east that area. As yesterday, the big
problem with this forecast is the wind. Yesterday the models in
general agreed having the surface front and surface low on the
western end of the front further north. Guess what, all the models
are further south which shoves the axis of higher winds further
south. As a result have decided to remove Sherman and Thomas
counties from todays Red Flag Warning. However, elevated fire
danger will still exist there.

For Monday...As described in the Monday discussion above, a lot of
position and timing differences of the incoming front. As a result
there is a big difference on how warm and windy it gets. Since
cannot confidently make any adjustments, will keep the current fire
weather watch. However, if the slower timing works out, this day
will potentially be a significant fire weather day. Also models
are showing deep mixing and much stronger winds than today. Some
or all of the watch will need to be upgraded to a warning
depending on what the newer data shows. Hopefully details will get
worked out so we can pin down the area of the biggest threat.


Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Records for today

Goodland.....93 set in 1991
Colby........94 set in 1921
TRIBUNE......89 set in 1936
BURLINGTON...89 set in 1991
YUMA.........88 set in 1991


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for COZ252>254.



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