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000
FXUS63 KGLD 121734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHERE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS THE QUESTION WHICH LIMITS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT PRESENT TIME. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS TONIGHT MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 850 TEMPERATURES
WARM 10-17F FROM SUNDAYS FORECAST VALUES SUPPORTING THE VARIOUS
BIAS CORRECTED...MET/MAV AND 2M TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 90S IN WESTERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...SEE THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A LIST OF RECORDS IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING TIDE OR BROKE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY BUT JUST HOW
HOT IS THE QUESTION. 850 TEMPERATURES ALL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 90S TO 101 IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS...HOTTEST IN THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS.
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS...MET/MAV AND 2M TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. A COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING CONTINUING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME DISCREPANCY IN JUST HOW FAST THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR BEHIND IT MOVES IN SO CONFIDENCE NOT THE HIGHEST TO SEE FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE
WITH 85 TO 90 IN EASTERN COLORADO...92-98 ELSEWHERE WITH HOTTEST
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE AND LISTED BELOW. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 60 NEAR
HILL CITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 15-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOMEWHAT
FURTHER NORTH BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING STORMS INTO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS IS MODIFIED. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT APPEARS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SOME TIME NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.  DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION ARE SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS UNCERTAINTY
WILL AFFECT THE EVENTUAL TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN MONDAY:

HILL CITY....96 (1915)
MCCOOK.......95 (1962)

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TUESDAY:

GOODLAND.....95 (1915)
HILL CITY....96 (1948)
MCCOOK.......98 (1929)
BURLINGTON...91 (1944)
TRIBUNE......94

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
CLIMATE...99