Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181043
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
443 AM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Update issued to add in mention of patchy frost for portions of
the CWA...mainly areas west of Highway 25. Latest satellite loop
shows these areas still clear with cloud shield just to the west
of the CWA and not moving to much eastward. This combined with
temps dropping into the mid 30s/light winds has prompted mention
of frost over next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Across the Tri State Region this morning...a mix of clear to
partly cloudy conditions ensue over the area...with temperatures
ranging mainly in the lower to mid 40s along side a few locales
already dipping into the upper 30s. The forecast area will begin
to see increasing clouds work in from the west from a lingering
low/mid cloud deck over the front range. As the T/Td spread
continues to tighten over the next few hours towards 12z...expect
some patchy fog development that will linger mainly west of
highway 25 thru the mid morning hours.

For the rest of Today...the main wx features will continue to be the
cloud cover and the areal extent over the CWA. High pressure lies to
our north...and the upper low/trough that models had linger between
the central/southern portions of the Rockies...now sits over the 4-
corners region of the SW. Overall a general psunny/mcldy day on tap
w/ best chance for sunshine over northern zones.

Going into tonight then on into the end of the week...upper low over
the desert SW will begin to shift east into the Southern Plains
region just south of the cwa...lifting towards the Central Plains
Thursday then exiting by Thursday night...replaced by increased h5
ridging. Depending on which model run to go with some uncertainty to
extent of qpf that will push into the region as the upper low passes
by. Best chances for any rw/trw will occur over Eastern/Southeastern
zones...with little to none over the W/NW areas.

For temps...increasing temp trend expected over the 3-day period
with highs Today ranging in the lower to mid 60s..warmest e and ne
away from bulk of expected cloud cover. By Thursday with the passage
of the upper system to our south...bulk of cloud cover will be south
and east...putting highs in the mid to upper 60s...warmest areas
W/NW. By Friday with strong ridging occurring over the
region...looking for temps to work into the 70s...warmest over
western areas. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s tonight and
Thursday night...with low 50s by Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

At the start of the extended period, upper level ridging amplifies
over the Plains in response to an upper low spinning over the
Pacific Northwest. The ridge progresses eastward on Saturday with
the upper low following behind. The upper system and forcing remain
off to the west, yet dryline development begins in eastern Colorado.
Showers and storms are possible as disturbances move through the
flow.

On Sunday, guidance suggests the low weakens into an open wave as it
advances. The dryline strengthens along the Colorado/Kansas border
while Gulf moisture increases. A shortwave moves over Colorado,
generating shower and thunderstorm chances once again. The threat
for severe weather seems higher on Sunday, but timing and placement
of the system and dryline will need to be monitored in the upcoming
days.

The system pushes onto the Plains early next week and drier air
filters in. Shower and thunderstorm activity look to be mainly east
of the region, with some slight/low chance pops for eastern portions
of the area.

Warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are currently
expected for the weekend as ridging impacts the High Plains.
Slightly cooler highs in the mid 70s to low 80s are anticipated to
follow. Lows will generally be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Tue May 17 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KMCK.
There is less confidence at KGLD where short range guidance is
still showing lower vis/cigs developing along the CO/KS state
line. Most other guidance still favors VFR. Lower cigs have
developed over parts of Colorado on western axis of surface high
where better low level moisture is pooling. As this surface high
shifts east early in the TAF period there will be potential for
stratus or reduced vis to spread east, so while confidence is low
on IFR I decided to stay with MVFR cigs/vis after 10Z through 14Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail after 14Z at KGLD. Other
aviation impact with be a period of gusty southerly winds at KGLD
in the afternoon Wednesday as surface gradient slowly increases.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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