Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160817
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WINDY CONDITIONS PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS PICKED UP IN THE STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY.  WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 AND GUSTS UP TO
40...IT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO BEGIN MOVING THE WET SNOW RECEIVED SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNT REPORTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA WAS 8" IN YUMA COUNTY. EAST-
WEST ROAD CLOSURES AND ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH DECREASES IN VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
BLOWING SNOW.  ROAD CREWS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE ROADS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS PICKED UP...BUT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
KEEP ROADS CLEAR MID-DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW PRODUCING LOCALIZED SNOW PACKED AND SLICK ROADS.  IN
ADDITION TO THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE LIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO
THE EAST...SO GUSTY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME CLEARING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON
TUESDAY AS THEY WERE TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BY THE SNOWFALL RECEIVED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN LATEST DATA AND
TRENDS...AM COMFORTABLE WITH REMOVING POPS FROM INITIAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CWA WILL REMAIN IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. ECMWF RATHER
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS SIMILAR PATTERN PRECIP DATA MUCH LOWER.
FOR THE TIME BEING GIVE OPERATIONAL DATA AND OVERALL PATTERN THINK
DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE A SMALL WARM UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 40S AND SEASONABLE LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMCK WHERE STRATUS HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. TIMING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STATUS IS PROBLEMATIC. THE HRRR CLEARS IT OUT
AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST WHILE THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING
KEEPS THE STRATUS TILL AFTER 15Z. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NAM
SINCE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT`S PERSISTENT TREND. OTHERWISE KGLD
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST WIND TURNING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. KMCK WILL ALSO TURN VFR TUESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
EARLIER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FS



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