Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny to mostly
sunny conditions persist with temperatures currently ranging in
the 70s. The entire area lies east of a lee-side trough over the
Front Range...which is giving the region SSW surface flow 15-30
mph in many areas. Far western portions of the NE Colorado
counties next to nothing for winds at this time due to their
proximity to the trough axis.

For the rest of the afternoon...expecting above normal conditions
mainly in the 70s to persist thru sunset. Winds will begin to
abate as well by then with the trough beginning to work off the
Front Range going into the evening hours. The transition from SSW
flow to WNW flow overnight will afford the CWA overnight lows in
a range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with cooler air
filtering into the region behind the trough.

Going into Tuesday...WNW upper flow will begin to shift to more
zonal as the upper ridge over the west begins to flatten. With
weak surface flow thru the day and full sunshine...the area will
see another above normal day for highs in the 70s...with some
locales in the far east nearing 80F...especially around the Hill
City area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

For the extended period...trend in model runs remains with zonal
flow continuing over the region until the end of the week before
shifting more SW. This will be due to a digging trough coming
into the Pacific coast...then transitioning into and thru the
Rockies/Plains for the first half of the weekend. It will be the
shifting of this trough and accompanying surface front that will
bring the chance for showers to the area for Saturday/Saturday
night. These features will clear for Sunday and will bring dry
conditions going into next Monday.

For temps...looking for above normal numbers thru Friday until
the passage of the trough/front on Saturday. This will bring
about near normal temps from Saturday onward. Highs thru Friday
will be in the 70s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s. For
Saturday onward...60s for highs with 30s returning for overnight


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites thru the forecast
period w/ an SKC-SCT250 mix. Winds WSW 10-20kts thru 22z-23z then
becoming SW around 10kts. By 08z Tuesday...WNW around 10kts.




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