Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FORECAST FOCUS BEYOND THE FROST FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING INTO THE LOWER
40S WHILE AREAS REMAINING CLEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 9 AM MDT (10 AM
CDT).

ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BARELY CLIPPING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON MONDAY. AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ACCORDINGLY AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL PROGRESS OVER THE AREA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI STATE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH
MORE OF A DIRECT INFLUENCE TO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AS LOW CLOUDS
STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MCK WILL START OUT
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE AND
MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. AT BOTH LOCATIONS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z AS THE SUN SETS AND THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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