Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
718 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 718 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Update to forecast to adjust pops upward for the band of moderate
to heavy showers Currently moving south thru the area. No other
changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Today-tonight...moisture in the 700-500mb layer increases from the
northwest through sunrise before starting to exit the area to the
east/southeast during the afternoon hours as a weather disturbances
moves through. Area is under influence of right rear quad of upper
jet helping support shower and thunderstorm production. Plentiful
moisture in the 850-700mb layer and an east/southeast wind will
cause high temperatures to be cooler then previously expected.
Blending 850mb temperatures from the past several days and
mos/2m/bias corrected grids supports readings in the low to mid 70s.
Could see a few showers/isolated thunderstorms generally east of
the CO/KS border tonight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Monday-Monday night...most of the area looks to be precipitation
free during the morning as drier air aloft moves in. During the
afternoon hours a slight increase in mid level moisture is forecast
while below 700mb moisture remains quite high per model rh. Cant
rule out some thunderstorms in the Flagler area and east of the
CO/KS border. For the nighttime hours front range convection per 700-
500mb moisture (NAM) is forecast to slide southeast into our west
and southern zones through midnight then generally out of the area
by sunrise. Afternoon temperatures in the low 80s looks good per
850mb temperatures. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...southerly winds increase through the day
allowing low level moisture to stream into the area. Afternoon
temperatures rise into the low 90s supporting modest instability. A
weather disturbance is forecast to move into the area during the mid
to late afternoon hours supporting some low chance pops for
thunderstorms generally along/west of the CO/KS border. This
disturbance continues east during the night supporting a continued
chance for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 in far eastern Colorado, low to upper 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Wednesday-Thursday: Both days will see zonal flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves moving across the area. Each afternoon and
evening, there will be a chance for thunderstorms, some which may
become strong or severe. For temps, both days look to be near
climatological normals.

Friday-Sunday: A cold front should push through the area some time
Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible again Friday afternoon through the overnight. Boundary
does not progress very far south of the CWA before becoming
stationary across southern and eastern portions of Kansas by Friday
evening. On Saturday, NW flow aloft and a series of shortwaves will
bring another chance of thunderstorms. As for now, biggest threat
area looks to be along and north of I-70. Model soundings for
Saturday suggest a chance for more strong to severe storms if
convection can initiate. Temperatures will gradually warm through
the period, ending up above normal by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through 14z with vcsh and winds from
the southeast 5-10kts. From 15z-21z mvfr cigs expected with an
east to southeast wind around 11kts and showers at/around the
terminal. 22z-07z cigs rise just above mvfr level with winds from
the southeast around 11kts. After 08z winds veer to the south
around 6kts with vfr conditions expected.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Will have a
chance for showers and possible thunderstorms from taf issuance
through about 21z as a weather disturbance aided by jet stream
winds aloft moves southeast across the terminal. Winds from the
northeast then east at speeds under 10kts. After 21z winds slowly
veer to the east-southeast under 10kts with dry conditions




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