Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1244 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...the area is looking at
mainly sunny skies w/ only extreme NE portions of the region still
seeing lingering mid clouds pinwheel thru. These clouds are not
inhibiting daytime highs at all as locales are currently seeing
mostly lower to mid 40s...w/ NW Yuma County showing upper 30s. Wind
gusts continue to remain strong with many seeing a 30-40 mph range.

Going into tonight and on thru Thursday...the upper low associated
with the cloud cover that affected the CWA thru now...will continue
to shift eastward further into the Great Lakes region. Downslope
westerly flow works into the area as region sits on a brief zonal
pattern ahead of next trough coming into the west. This system
pushes into the Rockies into western zones some
increased cloud cover by the end of the day. Temps as a result will
be above normal for many locales with highs ranging in the lower to
mid 40s. Decreasing winds overnight with clear skies will drop
overnight lows into the mid to upper teens...on a decent radiational
cooling night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

While model solutions are similar, the differences between the
ECMWF and GFS in the Long Term period appear to become
increasingly divergent through the period. The bottom line is
given the decreasing confidence through the period, little to no
changes have been made from the Model Blender solution as it seems
to identify the most significant features of the Long Term period,
which are warming temperatures through the weekend with a turn
towards sharply colder temperatures next week on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Will accept the precipitation fields as is for now.

The upper trough that has been deepening and swinging through the
western U.S. during the latter part of the work week will move
east of the Rockies and onto the plains on Saturday. The GFS is
initially more progressive moving the northern portion of the
trough onto the northern plains while the ECMWF is more
progressive than the GFS in moving the south end of the trough,
which has deepened into a closed low, into the the far southwest
portion of Texas on Saturday. This trend continues through Sunday
and into early Monday when the northern portion of the upper
trough moves into the Great Lakes region with a much larger
disparity with regard to the closed low at the south end of the
trough that eventually moves east as an open wave. The closed low
at the south end of the trough becomes mostly cut off from the
upper flow by Sunday. As such, the ECMWF has it moving into the
southern Mississippi Valley region while the GFS keeps it over
northern Mexico by Monday. This difference further propagates
through the forecast period as a difference in the resulting 500
MB height fields over the forecast area as the next upper trough
begins to deepen over the western U.S. The ECMWF produces lower
500 MB heights than the GFS over the central high plains region by
Tuesday with a more progressive and broader trough over the north
central tier of states than the somewhat less progressive and more
sharply defined upper ridge in the GFS.

The ECMWF seems to remain more progressive than the GFS with
regard to the surface features moving east of the Rockies through
the Long Term Forecast period. The tail end of a surface trough
moves across the forecast area late Friday while a deeper lee
trough forms along the Front Range by late Sunday. This deeper
trough moves across the Central High Plains by early Monday. Once
that surface trough moves east, it appears the region remains open
to receive surges of colder air with persistent northerly cold
air advection through the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Conditions...VFR w/ SCT-BKN200 becoming SKC by 00z Thursday.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........WNW 20-30kts thru 00z Thursday...then 5-15kts.




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