Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The short term forecast concerns are timing the end of the rain
across the forecast area overnight along with potential for the
far northwest sections of the forecast area to see overnight lows
in the upper 30s early Tuesday morning.

General southwest flow aloft remains over the region as the
initial upper low center lifts out of Wyoming and over the
northern plains on Tuesday while a jet diving down the back side
of the upper ridge begins deepening another upper low center over
the far desert southwest. The persistent rain showers will be
clearing out after 06Z tonight as the surface front moves well
east of the area and high pressure begins moving into the high
plains region. With cooler high pressure moving in and the area
possibly seeing a few breaks in the sky cover early Tuesday
morning, early morning lows over the far northwest sections could
drop into the upper 30s. In area that retain significant sky cover
through the day on Tuesday, highs are only expected to reach into
the lower 60s while areas that see breaks in the clouds could see
highs reaching into the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Thursday-Friday: Models are in better agreement for this period when
compared to yesterday. ECMWF has come in line with the GFS`s idea of
moving the closed low over the Four Corners, northward into southern
Wyoming. Will see chances of rain and storms through Friday morning,
mainly along and west of the KS/CO border. Daytime highs should
remain below normal with nighttime lows near normal.

Saturday-Sunday: Models are not in agreement for this portion of the
extended. Most global models agree on a closed low and longwave
trough developing over the Northern Plains and deepening
southward. The issue is placement of this feature. ECMWF has it
east of the CWA which would leave our area under the influence of
upper level ridging and dry. GFS brings the feature into Colorado
which would put our area downstream of the trough with better
chances of rain and storms. Forecast is a blend, but leans more
towards the GFS solution. Temperatures should remain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Scattered showers will continue to move across northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska this evening eventually decreasing in
coverage and ending. Where moderate showers occur vis may drop
below 3sm, however confidence is low at TAF issuance on occurrence
at either terminal. There may also be temporary breaks in IFR cigs
at KGLD this evening between showers, but stratus should rapidly
fill back in. By late tonight LIFR cigs should develop with light
fog (vis 3-6sm) at KGLD. Conditions should remain near fuel
alternates at KMCK, and VFR conditions should prevail by mid
morning at both terminals as drier air finally moves back into the
region. Prevailing winds are expected to remain below 12kt
through the TAF period generally out of the north.




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