Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 030755
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S WEST UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S EAST AS THE AREA
SITS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. THAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER EASTWARD THRU
12Z THIS MORNING...AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA AS AREA WILL SIT BETWEEN A BROAD H5 RIDGE TO OR
EAST...AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THAT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ACCOMPANYING THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LEE-SIDE TROUGHS THAT MOVE NORTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOCUS/TRAJECTORY PF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL PUT BEST CHANCES FOR TRW OVER WESTERN ZONES. STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME ON THRU THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

850 MB TEMPS THRU THIS TIMEFRAME WILL RANGE FROM +29C TO
+32C...GIVING THE REGION A STEADY DOSE OF MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPS...TEMPERED ONLY BY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FROM ANY TRW
DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SPOT 100F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AWAY FROM EXPECTED CLOUD COVER INFLUENCE.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BLOCKING ANY MAJOR INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE THE REGION RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S THRU THE MAX HEATING TIMEFRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE
MAIN UPPER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL WEAKEN LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CLIMBING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATE WITH AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY AID IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS



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