Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough breaking down the ridge
over the Plains.  Ahead of this trough showers and thunderstorms
were developing.  At the surface an outflow boundary/cold front was
moving southeast.  A second boundary was present running from
Johnson City northeast to Oakley and Hill City then turning east
toward Stockton.  Along the east extent of the cold front cumulus
clouds were developing.

So far the storm activity has been remaining behind the outflow
boundary in the more stable environment.  Due to the cold front
advancing southeast faster than expected, am beginning to wonder if
any severe weather will occur for the southeast part of the forecast
area today.  Based on the current speed of the boundary, the cold
front will be on the southeast border of the forecast area in
roughly 2 hours.  While severe weather cannot be ruled out yet, the
window of opportunity is quickly shrinking.  In addition, by the
time peak lift from the upper level short wave trough will occur,
the front will be well south of the forecast area.

If severe weather does occur it will be south of a Hoxie to Hill
City line and east of a Russell Springs to Hoxie line.  Should
severe weather occur, hail up to ping-pong ball size is possible
with the strongest storms, along with damaging wind gusts.  Due to
the almost stationary nature of the storms, heavy rainfall is
likely.  This may cause flash flooding in low lying areas, but do
not have enough confidence at this time to issue a watch.

There maybe some lingering storms over the southeast half of the
forecast area overnight ahead of the upper level short wave trough
that will be moving slowly south.

Sunday morning the upper level short wave trough will move south of
the forecast area before mid morning.  Once it does the weather
should be dry due to subsidence/very weak lift moving overhead as
the ridge, that retrograded west during the overnight hours, pushes
back east onto the High Plains.  Due to the cooler air mass in place
highs will be cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Sunday night-Tuesday: This period should remain dry as upper level
ridging dominates the weather. Temperatures will be above normal
with eastern sections of the area once again, seeing highs near the
century mark on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Saturday: Ridge flattens somewhat allowing zonal to NW
flow aloft. Series of shortwaves will traverse the area through the
period. These, combined with some leeside troughing at the surface
will bring chance to likely PoPs through Saturday morning with best
rain and storm chances coming Thursday night through Friday night.
Some storms may become strong to severe each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures now look to be at or below normal for the period. 12Z
Euro MOS actually has a high of 79 in Goodland on Thursday. Will be
fine tuning the forecast through the weekend to better pinpoint
hazards and temps since global models have not been very consistent
from run to run the past few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Updated timing on both TAFs to account for earlier arrival of
showers and storms...

Previous Discussion: For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions expected
through the period. Main concern will be thunderstorms this
afternoon and whether they will directly affect terminals. Line of
storms currently in Dundy and Hitchcock counties are slowly
moving to the east towards KMCK. Some computer models have these
storms dying out before reaching the terminal, but looking at
radar trends, it will be close. Went with VCTS for both terminals
for the afternoon. Tempo for KMCK since one of the approaching
storms could make it to the terminal before dissipating. Winds
overnight become light and slowly turn from NE to W by sunrise.
Went with variable just to account for the direction changes.




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