Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 122026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM NEAR
OBERLIN TO COLBY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO COLORADO. THIS IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WHICH LIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEBULOUS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND
FAVORABLE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR LIFT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH STORM
MOTIONS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST TAKING THEM SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH UP TO
1500 J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ONLY BE 20-25KTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS
SHOULD STEADILY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. QVECTORS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
WEAKER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 20-30KTS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LIMITED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE REALLY
ISNT A LOT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT SO COVERAGE IS STILL A
QUESTION. I KEPT MENTION LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT MAX AND ADJUSTED
TIMING.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...STRONG COLD CORE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER
NORTHERN CANADA WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE INITIAL AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON MONDAY AS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS EAST
SO I LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE WEST/SOUTH. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. BEST OVERALL CHANCES (BASED ON OVERLAPPING SIGNAL FROM
CURRENT GUIDANCE) WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH BEST MUCAPE
FURTHER WEST. I ADJUSTED WX GRIDS TO MENTION ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
FURTHER EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH BETTER
THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE WEST. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER ON EXIT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...AND KEEPS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN PRECIP OR TEMPS THURSDAY AS A
RESULT WITH A TRANSITION IN PATTERN LIKELY TAKING PLACE EITHER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
NOW...THOUGH TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AND HAVE
HIGHS NEAR 80 (ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY).

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING RIDGE
TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PLACES THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
NEAR OUR CWA ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE BETTER CHANCES. I WENT
AHEAD I STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH INTRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE
MAY BE SOME TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE COLORADO
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE
MAKES IT UNLIKELY EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024





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