Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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