Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 011138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN


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