Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
439 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a short wave ridge over
the Tri-State Area with another short wave trough approaching from
the west.  Between the two features was a band of snow, with some
moderate to heavy snow reported in the mountains.  At the surface
the trough was near the CO/KS border.  Along and east of the trough
visibilities ranged from a quarter mile to unrestricted.

Today the fog will follow a similar pattern to yesterday of
dissipating by late morning.  Some locations will have a glaze of
ice due to the freezing fog.  The approaching snowfall may cause
visibilities along the CO/KS border to improve sooner than forecast.

Meanwhile expect the band of snowfall to move into the area before
sunrise following a band of frontogenesis. The band of
frontogenesis will move north across the area this morning. As
the day progresses the upper level short wave trough will deepen
over the Tri-State Area. As it deepens WAA and speed convergence
on the west side of the trough will cause lift to increase.
Theta-e lapse rates will fall to around zero across the forecast
area, so there could be some convective driven precipitation in
the afternoon. The higher chances for precipitation will be in the
afternoon, moving in from the west.

Based on wet-bulb zero heights, the precipitation may remain as all
snow into the afternoon.  However, am thinking the early afternoon
temperatures of around 40 degrees should cause the snow to change to
rain.  During the afternoon the higher precipitation amounts are
expected, so if the precipitation does not change over to rain, some
small accumulations of snow can be expected.  Am not anticipating
any freezing rain due to the temperatures quickly warming above the
freezing point.

This evening precipitation chances will decline as the now closed
low moves northeast and the WAA and speed convergence shift out of
the Tri-State Area.  Any lingering precipitation will be northeast
of the Tri-State Area by midnight.

The surface trough will be pushed east of the Tri-State Area this
evening as the closed low lifts northeast.  Due to the surface
trough east of the area, am not expecting any fog to develop during
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Saturday and Sunday the weather will be dry.  A short wave ridge
will move through Saturday followed by another closed low in the
afternoon.  Some lift from WAA will round the closed low, but will
remain just south of the Tri-State Area Saturday night.  A weak cold
front will move through Saturday night.  Another ridge will begin to
build in from the west Sunday.  The incoming ridge will help negate
any cooling from the cold front causing highs to be similar to
Saturday.  Sunday afternoon northwest winds will be breezy as a weak
low level jet mixes down to the ground.

The main concern in the extended period continues to be an area of
low pressure that is set to develop on Monday, moving out of the
central Rockies and into the central High Plains on Tuesday. There
seems to be good agreement between the global models with regards to
the track; however, the agreement is not as strong as in previous
runs. The trend has been to a more northerly track, keeping the
primary impacts mainly north of Interstate 70. Precipitation will
begin making its way into the northernmost portions of the CWA
around or just after midnight on Monday with slgt chc PoPs becoming
chc PoPs after sunrise. Ptype will be snow at first with a brief
transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain during the early afternoon
before changing back to snow. At this time, the track is not
favorable for large amounts of accumulating snowfall as the center
of the low is expected to traverse our northernmost counties and QPF
is relatively low for our area. The best chances for accumulating
snow, barring any shift in the track, will be northern Yuma County
and the southwest Nebraska counties. The system will move out of the
area by the middle of Wednesday morning.

The remainder of the week will remain dry as high pressure builds
into the western States with a deep trough developing in the eastern
portion of the country. Below average temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will begin to moderate and approach average values as we
head into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 430 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Some of the near term
models indicate a corridor of MVFR visibility over KMCK. This does
line up well with the current observation, but have somewhat low
confidence this will persist so have a tempo group of low
visibility before visibilities drop after sunrise. Am surprised
the ceiling is also MVFR for KMCK. This should fall back to IFR
soon given the current data and surrounding observations.
Conditions will not improve until around mid afternoon.

KGLD will have the lowest conditions for the first few hours of
the TAF. If the surface trough moves through faster or slower than
currently forecast that will affect the timing of the improving
conditions. High MVFR ceilings likely as the rain moves through
this afternoon.


KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for

CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for



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