Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 290701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.