Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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876
FXUS63 KGLD 162036
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
136 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

H5 low continues to move off to the northeast this afternoon. Snow
transition was a bit slower than expected thus ice amounts were
higher and snowfall totals lower. Much of the CWA is transitioned to
snow where precipitation is falling with occasional reports of mixed
sleet and freezing rain. A persistent but weak band of snow
stretches from Hitchcock county in Nebraska to central Kit Carson
county in Colorado. This band is very slowly moving to the east and
areas within this band of light snow could pick up an additional
inch of snow. HRRR mesoscale and SREF plumes indicate that most
areas will see precipitation chances quickly diminish as the
afternoon progresses, ending by around 00Z. Temperatures will hover
in the lower 30s for the most part with upper 20s in the
northwestern portions of the CWA. Skies will clear tonight from
northwest to southeast.

Mostly clear skies will prevail Tuesday with a rebound in
temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s across
the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

For the extended period...latest GFS/ECMWF models have been trending
the past several runs with zonal H5 flow across the northern half
of the country...with a cutoff low setting up over south central
portions of the country. This upper level system makes a slow push
northward towards the Central Plains by Friday...lifting across
the Central Plains Friday night...followed by another quick moving
system that pinwheels into the region off the Central Rockies for
the upcoming weekend.

With the cutoff system anchored over south central portions of the
country for the first half of the extended...surface high pressure
mainly east...with troughing over the front range. This will give
the area near to above normal highs Wednesday into Friday...before
trending colder as the approach of the two aforementioned systems
will bring increased cloud cover with the chance for precip.

Looking for daytime highs to reach the 40s with a trend lower into
the upcoming weekend. Depending on the speed of these two
systems...highs could be affected by several degrees due to the
strength of the CAA on the wrap-around/exiting side of each low.
Overnight lows will range in the 20s.

For precip...limited qpf at present to keep pops in chance category
for now...but speed of each system thru the area combined with some
upslope effects on the easterly/southeasterly flow could give the
area enhanced precip especially at night in terms of -sw based on
expected temps. Warm enough during the day for -rw.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

For KGLD...with the winter storm slowly winding down over the
area...looking for 2sm or less thru 20z this afternoon in light to
moderate snowfall...ceilings ovc003-006. From 20z-00z 3-5sm in
light snow with ceilings ovc010 or less. By 00z Tuesday...becoming
VFR with bkn035...scattering out by 05z. Winds north 10-15kts with
gusts to 25kts thru 00z Tuesday. 00z Tuesday onward...WNW around
10kts.

For KMCK...with winter storm winding down...looking for any
rain/snow mix becoming all snow by 21z this afternoon. Visibility
will range mainly 2-4sm during this time...w/ periods down to
1/2sm at times from 18z-21z. Ceilings ovc015 down to below ovc010
at times. By 23z this afternoon...light snow showers with persist
with ceilings ovc010 increasing to bkn040 by 06z Tuesday. Winds
north 10-20kts thru 23z...then WNW around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening
     for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN



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