Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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036
FXUS63 KGLD 241951
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...persistent partly sunny
skies remain over the area with a SSE surface wind and temps ranging
nicely...mainly in the 70s...despite cloud cover. A moisture axis
allowing the low/mid level cloudiness...is sourcing from the eastern
Rockies and will persist thru the rest of the afternoon hrs...
resulting from surface ridging east and a building trough in the
southern Rockies.

A few isolated showers will move thru the northern zones this
afternoon as well with little impact to the area.

Going into tonight...looking for cloud cover to wane for central and
eastern zones...with mostly cloudy conditions for western zones due
to proximity to low/mid level moisture axis over Colorado.

For Sunday...similar scenario for the region as today. Surface ridge
to our north and east will shift further east thru the day allowing
inverted surface trough to push further into the Rockies. The
moisture axis between the two remains mostly over eastern Colorado
thru the day...with some bleed over into western Kansas thru the
day. 500/700 mb winds remain out of the WNW during this time...
aiding in moisture shift into the Plains region.

Models do hint at some weak instability over eastern Colorado...with
the possibility of shifting east. Some rw/trw possible but best
chances look for the western CWA to see precip...especially for
eastern Colorado.

For temps...cool airmass influenced from the surface
ridge...clearing over the area for many locales tonight will afford
the region overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s into the lower
50s. Daytime highs Sunday will reach into the mid and upper 70s but
will depend on extent/thickness of clouds for the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

H5 trough situated over southern Ontario will push off to the east
on Tuesday with the western Ridge over southern Arizona and New
Mexico beginning to break down simultaneously. The pattern will
become increasingly zonal as we head into Wednesday and Thursday.
This will be short-lived as another H5 trough will take shape
across the upper Mississippi Valley region as we head into Friday
with a weak cold front to follow. Northwest flow will develop
during this time as another ridge builds into the southwestern
states. Global models disagree with regards to the strength/timing
of both features but are in loose agreement with the general
pattern.

Embedded shortwaves will develop each afternoon Monday through
Thursday and travel with the flow pattern. Consequently,
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with a favorable
severe thunderstorm environment developing Tuesday through
Thursday.

Severe indices each day as of the latest guidance:
Tuesday (CAPE 1500-2500 and 0-6Km shear 40-50 knots)
Wednesday (CAPE 1700- 3000 J/Kg and 0-6km shear 45-55 knots)
Thursday (CAPE 2000-3500 J/Kg and 0-6Km shear 55-65 knots)

The greatest instability will be in the eastern and northeastern
portions of the CWA. Forcing will be highest on Tuesday; however,
if guidance remains consistent, the environment on Wednesday and
Thursday will be supportive of supercells as well.

A weak cold front will push across the region on Friday, reducing
instability a bit but still allowing at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Conditions...VFR with a mix of SCT-BKN low and mid clouds.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...ESE around 10kts thru 05z Sunday...then S
around 10kts. For KMCK...mainly light/variable around 4-6kts...w/
a brief NW around 10kts from 21z Sat-00z Sun.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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