Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF MY AREA. SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR DRYLINE IS
LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. INSTABILITY...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE ARE LOCATED NEAR OR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF MY AREA. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO WEAK BUT BROAD JET
LEVEL SUPPORT. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
MY AREA TO ALLOW HEATING TO OCCUR.

AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO THE WEST OF MY AREA. WITH
ALL THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE EXPECT THIS DEVELOP TO SPREAD EAST AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON IT
LOOKS A LIKE A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF MY AREA. THIS AREA THEN PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO LINE
UP WITH WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LIFT ARE LOCATED.

STORM MOTIONS LOOK FASTER BY PWS ARE ONE INCH PLUS OVER MY AREA.
AREA OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MOVEMENT LOOK TO BE IN SOME
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT HAD HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. AS A
RESULT CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND COLD UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT AS WELL WITH SOME
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIPITATION. SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF FORMATION OF TRW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE BKN020-025 RANGE BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT. BETWEEN 20Z-23Z VCTS FOR BOTH SITES WITH POTENTIAL
TRW BRINGING 3SM IN HEAVY RAIN/FOG ANY TIME BETWEEN 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND 04Z TONIGHT. LATER TIME FOR KMCK AS THEY WILL SEE
LOWER CLOUDS THIN OUT LAST. BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...TRANSITION TO VFR
AS RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISH. BY 11Z-13Z FRIDAY SCT025 SCT250.
WINDS SSE 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-06Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE NNW
10-145KTS. VRB25-35KTS POSSIBLE IN TRW TIMEFRAME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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