Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24HR AGO ON
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FROPA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT. FAVORING A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON
HIGHS SUN AND SLOWER ON TIMING OF PRECIP. ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOWING THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED OPEN WAVE...WHICH LIMITS WINDOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LIFT IS DECENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA. I MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 20/30 POPS MONDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER CAA COMPARED TO
24HR AGO...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING MONDAY. I KEPT PATCHY
FROST MENTION MONDAY NIGHT AND ADDED MENTION TUESDAY NIGHT (WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT). WHILE 30-36F
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE A HARD FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST WITH W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW (WITH LARGE
VARIANCE BETWEEN MODELS/ENSEMBLES). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT GENERALLY
FOR PRECIP...SO DRY FORECAST FROM MODEL CONSENSUS WAS REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW
REINFORCING COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS /15-20KFT AGL/ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. AT THIS POINT
FOG/STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENCE OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER
FOG/STRATUS EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER HAVE LEANED
AGAINST INCLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LITTLE
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE AND THINKING THAT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

GOODLAND KS.....88 IN 1915
COLBY KS........87 IN 2003
HILL CITY KS....89 IN 1921
BURLINGTON CO...84 IN 1952
YUMA CO.........87 IN 2003
MCCOOK NE.......88 IN 1927


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...JJM



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