Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
109 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

One last update. Patchy fog continues to hang on stubborningly in
Red Willow county. So kept it going a little longer. Also stratus
is even holding on as well. Temperatures have been greatly
impacted because of this. The Rap is catching the fog, sky cover
and temperatures very well and used for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Have completed a completed a couple more updates. Main update was
to allow the Dense Fog Advisory expire and to end the fog earlier.
Also based on current observational trends and latest guidance I
raised today maxes a few degrees in the southern and western

UPDATE Issued at 826 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Many locations are at or below a quarter mile visibility at this
time. With high resolution model output catching this well and
indicating this will last for at least 2 to almost 3 hours have
gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for my Nebraska
counties and from Rawlins to Norton counties.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Today-tonight...will have to deal with stratus and fog generally
along and east of the CO/KS border this morning with quite a bit of
cirrus moving in from the west. Mid and high clouds remain during
the afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the low 70s northeast
to mid/upper 70s elsewhere. For tonight clouds slowly decrease from
west to east as upper level ridging builds to our west and trough
that moved through today exits the area. Low temperatures in the low
40s to low 50s (west to east).

Wednesday-Wednesday of 592 upper high resides over
southwest New Mexico with ridge axis extending north-northeast along
the Continental Divide. May see some cirrus from time to time
otherwise clear. High temperatures in the low to upper 70s with lows
in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday-Thursday of 590 upper high slowly moves east
into west Texas during the day as upper trough approaches the west
coast. The upper high holds firm for the overnight hours with west
coast trough moving little. Any cloudiness would be limited to
cirrus level. Afternoon temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low
80s with low temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Ridge axis will be situated directly over top of the CWA on Friday
with westerly flow aloft. Due to continued dry conditions and low
relative humidity Friday afternoon, there will be increased fire
danger mainly through the afternoon and into the early evening. A
fast moving cold front will push through the area late Friday
afternoon, shifting the winds northwesterly. At this time, winds
look to remain under 25 mph both before and after the front; however
the recent GFS and ECMWF trend is underestimating the wind gusts
and these may need to be adjusted accordingly.

A shortwave trough pushes into the central Plains Saturday morning,
shifting the upper flow a bit more northwesterly and flattening the
H5 ridge a bit. No precipitation is expected with this trough as the
air mass remains very dry. The ridge will recover and build once
more as we head into Sunday; however it will be pushed eastward late
in the day as a much larger area of low pressure moves into the
northern Great Basin late Sunday night and into Monday. Upper flow
will shift southwesterly as the trough approaches from the west.

Overall we are looking at temperatures through the extended that
will remain well above average. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and will fall as we head into the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. Saturday and Sunday will see
highs in the lower to middle 70s, which is around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late October. Temperatures will warm to near 80
degrees once more on Monday with a cold front bringing temperatures
down through the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be closer to
normal with lower to middle 60s expected in the wake of the cold


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period.
Front/surface trough currently moving through the area. Through
the afternoon the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15 knots.
After that the winds will become light and variable until late in
the evening into the overnight hours when the shift to the west
then northwest.

For Kmck...Stratus and fog are gradually shifting. For a couple
hours ifr conditions are expected and then quickly lift to mvfr
and finally vfr by 21z. Vfr conditions will then last through the
rest of the period. Light and variable winds will become west
around 02z and then northwest/north during the overnight and
morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to be 10 knots or less
once the winds begin shifting.




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