Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 052035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE AREA FEELS THE EFFECTS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES C BY LATE FRIDAY COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON SO
FIGURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MAIN WX CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX INCREASES.
THIS IS GOING TO BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW
SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A SURFACE FRONT/LOW THAT
WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DOWN INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS. MODELS DO SHIFT THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
PLAINS FOR THE TAIL-END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES THRU MUCH OF MIDWEEK THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW FOR THE CWA. SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAY PROVIDE THE REGION A BREAK IN THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTION.

UP FIRST THOUGH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MEANDERING
SOUTH INTO THE CWA THRU THE DAY AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT...ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
IT IS THE FUTURE POSITION OF THIS LOW AND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THAT IS GOING TO DETERMINE TO TRW POTENTIAL
FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW WITH LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE...SE FLOW INTO
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY PUTTING THE FOCUS
FOR TRW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THRU
THE DAY/EVENING. POSITION OF DRYLINE THAT SETS UP AND INCREASED
HEATING THRU THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS IS GOING TO TRIGGER STORMS
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE. BEST CHANCES AT THE ONSET WILL
FOCUS ON AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPC DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX ALL DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ADDED IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR OUR AREA TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EDGING EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS THRU THE DAY. WILL BE CONTINUING
MENTION OF RW/TRW OVER THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON POSITION OF SURFACE LOW THRU THE DAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA
TO ALLOW RETURN NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WELL INTO NEXT THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW.

FOR TEMPS...POSITION OF FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BE KEY TO DAYTIMES
HIGHS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. LOOKING FOR HIGH TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S THRU THE MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY ALONG WITH AREAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTING LATE IN THE DAY WILL AFFORD THE
REGION UPPER 60S THRU THE MID 70S FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED WILL HAVE NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS NEAR 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR DOWNWARD TREND THRU THE WEEK WITH 50S THE START OFF
THE WEEKEND THEN TREND DOWN TO THE 40S BY WED/THURS NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250 EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH 18035-45KTS DEVELOPING ATOP 8-12 KT SFC
WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR LLWS WILL BE 09-14Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DLF


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