Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 312118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...MK



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