Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Forecast concerns are the hot temperatures and the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather this afternoon and evening.
Additionally, cooler, but still quite warm, temperatures are
expected along with scattered showers and thunderstorms with a
slight risk of severe storms on Thursday as a cold front moves
through the area.

A few thunderstorms are currently rolling off the Palmer divide
region and traveling into far western Kansas while additional CU
are beginning to initiate east of a surface trough bisecting the
forecast area from north to south. Instabilities are higher, but
the atmosphere is still relatively dry where afternoon
temperatures are around 100 and dewpoints are in the mid 50s to
mid 60s ahead of the surface trough. On the back side of the
trough, the atmosphere is much drier with dewpoints in the 30s and
40s. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase east of the
surface through the afternoon as a weak mid level short wave in
the nearly zonal flow moves east across the high plains this
afternoon and out of the forecast area this evening. A few storms
could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and localized
heavy rain.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as a
prefrontal trough moves into the area during the morning with a
cold front expected to slide south across the forecast area
between 18-00Z. There is currently a slight risk of storms
becoming severe across the entire forecast area with the
possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall with some of the stronger storms that may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Northwest flow to start the period will gradually weaken as the
western ridge crosses the Rockies. The ridge will weaken by the
end of the period with a zonal flow across the CONUS.

There will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the period associated with weak embedded shortwave troughs
in the flow aloft. Instability will be lacking at the start of the
period, but does gradually increase next week. However, with the
ridge building over the area forcing for convection will be a
problem. All in all, no day stands out as particularly favorable
for a severe weather threat and storm chances should remain
relatively low.

Temperatures will be below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal
Tuesday then above normal on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Southerly winds tonight will
turn to the north during the morning ahead of a cold front that
moves through. Behind the cold front winds will turn slightly to
the northeast and become gusty. The gusty winds will end shortly
after 0z. KGLD could have some storms in the vicinity in the
afternoon with a better chance in the evening. However coverage
may be too limited to include in the TAF at this time.




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