Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301724
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE
RIDGE TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES FORECAST
TO BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY IN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT LITTLE
MOVEMENT EASTWARD IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS AT ONLY 5KTS.
WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20KTS
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS INDICATED EITHER
DAY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP FRIDAY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OR AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO ASSERT
ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RIDGE DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY EVENTUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL SETUP WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE DOMINATING.

THE ECM SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVELS SOUTH
TOWARDS NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE RETURN AT
THE SURFACE WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS OUTCOME
IS REPRESENTATIVE OR IF THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FOR THE AREA INSTEAD
AS THE GFS PROPOSES. DID LEAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
AT EITHER TERMINAL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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