Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201720
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...AT THE SFC A TROUGH SETS UP FROM ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALOFT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVE IN DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THE HIGHER POPS WITH DECREASING POPS
EITHER SIDE OF IT. 0-6KM WINDS PARALLEL THE FRONT AND UPPER FLOW
SO SOME TRAINING OF CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH THE
CENTURY MARK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT LOW 70S FROM NORTON
THROUGH HILL CITY TO GOVE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING COLORADO COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 00Z
FRIDAY THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY DURING THE DAY BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
AREA WHERE INSTABILITY AND LIMITED INHIBITION EXISTS. BETTER CHANCE
SHOULD BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE
90S. MAY SEE 100 DEGREES OUT BY HILL CITY. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
AROUND 70 IN HILL CITY.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE
APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE DAY MOVING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WITH MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE BEHIND IT. WITH GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL TIMING BUT FOR NOW HAVE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MAY SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERALL COOLER AND WET PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

OVERALL THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...AND
EVEN SOME GULF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

SATURDAY...WHILE EARLIER FORECASTS HAD BEEN MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT
LINE UP TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE...BUT AT
THIS POINT TRENDS POINT TO MORE OF AN ISOLATED WEAK STORM THREAT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO HIT NEAR 90.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A HALF INCH IN SOME SPOTS
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST DURING
THESE DAYS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNEDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR RAINFALL IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WOULD SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TUES/WED WILL BE A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTS TO
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE. KMCK APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AS SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AROUND TO JUST AFTER 00Z.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AT KMCK. AS FOR
KGLD...SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR JUST EAST OF TERMINAL
INITIALLY. THEN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AS
THERE WASNT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EITHER REMOVE VCTS OR ADD A
TEMPO/FM GROUP FOR PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...RRH



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