Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 022352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  TO THE WEST A
RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.  AT
THE SURFACE A FRONT WAS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT OVER NEBRASKA.
CLOSER TO HOME A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAD EXITED THE TRI-STATE AREA
BEHIND A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE
TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AM DOUBTFUL ANY STORMS
WILL FIRE BETWEEN THE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 WHERE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.

THIS EVENING THE LIFT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  SOME WEAKER
MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP DUE TO CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 25MB OR MORE. WHAT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE WEAK LIFT COMES TO AN END.

OVERNIGHT A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE
VERY LOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT
THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE RAINFALL
POSITIONED TOO FAR WEST BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT/LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. HAVE THE RAINFALL
CHANCES CENTERED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS BUT ALSO HAVE
THE CHANCES EXTENDING FURTHER WEST IN CASE MODELS ARE MORE
CORRECT THAN THEY CURRENTLY APPEAR.

FRIDAY MORNING THE STORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DECLINE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENDS. THIS SETUP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ONLY FURTHER WEST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER AN INCH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM
COMPLEX.

DURING THE AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

STORMS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SEVERE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27 WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45KTS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1500J/KG WILL EXIST. NOTICED THE 0-3KM HELICITY IS AROUND 200M2/S2
EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST. IF STORMS CAN TAP INTO THIS
THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE MID MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT TURNS MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE FLATTENS WITH A TROUGH
SWEEPING OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP AND
WELL INTO THE 90S ON SUNDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SMALL CHANCE FOR A LATE
NIGHT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE KGLD TERMINAL FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE N-NE 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING SLOWLY BECOMING E-SE BY
MORNING LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF


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