Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are a partly
sunny to mostly sunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s in
the far west and south...up to the 70s elsewhere which coincides
well where cloud cover is thinnest. Winds are northerly with the
area split as to receiving stronger gusts of 20+ mph. Strong surface
ridging remains north of the CWA with ridge axis expected to slide
south and east of the CWA overnight into Saturday. This will allow
the wind field to go light/variable going into the evening/overnight
hrs...then shift to the ESE during the day tomorrow.

Models also show weak inverted trough building into the east side of
the central Rockies late overnight into Saturday. While the region
will see decreasing cloud cover overnight with the ridge cresting
over the CWA...the area could expect to see increasing clouds from
west to east over the area thru the day. Moisture funneled between
the two aforementioned systems will allow for the increased areal
coverage of clouds. Late instability along this cloud axis will
start to produce some rw/trw. This coverage will increase from west
to east during the afternoon hrs as ridge shifts more eastward
allowing for trough/precip to move off eastern Rockies into the
Plains. Upper flow will remain out of the NW while surface flow
stays ESE. This should inhibit major coverage of rw/trw development
thru the afternoon hrs...combined with the strong subsidence it has
to overcome as precip moves into area exited by surface ridge.

For temps...northerly flow going light with decreasing cloud cover
will give the area overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the
lower 50s. Going into Saturday...daytime highs will range in the mid
to upper 70s. Temps here will be tempered in spots due to the
increasing cloud cover expected thruout the afternoon hrs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Saturday Night through Monday Night: Amplified pattern will be in
place on Saturday night and into Sunday with high pressure over the
southwestern US and a trough situated over the Great Lakes region.
This trough will gradually push eastward through the day on Sunday
and into Monday with the ridge flattening during the same time
frame. Embedded shortwaves will traverse the CWA during this time
period and slgt chc to chc PoPs reflect this in the forecast.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday and very
early on Monday with perhaps a few isolated storms Monday afternoon
and evening in the eastern half of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday: Upper flow pattern will become nearly
zonal as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Embedded H5 shortwaves
will develop in the lee of the Rockies on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, giving us a chance of thunderstorms each day. Instability
will be high enough to consider a chance of severe thunderstorms as
we will have around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of CAPE in the presence of 40
to 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Another chance of thunderstorms is
possible on Thursday mainly for the eastern third of the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminal. Gusty winds early in the TAF period at KMCK
(15-20kt gusts) should decrease after sunset with loss of daytime
heating. Winds at both terminals then will remain below 12kt
through the rest of the TAF period with surface high pressure and
weak surface gradient in place.




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