Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 012040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS


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