Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1200 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave
troughs approaching the system approaching from the
Texas panhandle while the second was currently moving to the east
over northwest Colorado. The latter trough will likely be the
primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and

Thunderstorm chances will be the primary concern as expected
forcing has been slower than expected...resulting in a significant
delay in precipitation onset across the CWA. Last few scans of
visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave
trough and its sfc reflection...and imagine this more widespread
convective initiation will develop over next 2 hours. How far
east things get remain in question...and have a few doubts if
storms will make a great eastward push...or build south along
instability gradient and into stronger low level waa. Do not
really have a favored solution at this point but will trend PoPs
this evening to more of a compromise unless data leading to a more
preferred solution presents itself. Otherwise as storms end
across the area may see a brief period of clearing...but with
favorable humidity profiles expect fog and stratus to develop
during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Theta-e boundary will be draped across the CWA from southwest to
northeast Saturday morning and will remain stationary through the
day. Relatively high mixing ratios and CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg
range along and southeast of this boundary will allow thunderstorm
development mainly during the afternoon and will focus in the
eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA where instability is
the highest. Deep layer shear is modest and severe thunderstorms, if
any, will be isolated. Southwest flow aloft becomes southerly as we
head into Sunday. The theta-e boundary will pull northwestward,
allowing moisture to be advected into the region through the
afternoon along the western flank of a broad area of high pressure.
Could see showers and thunderstorms form once more as instability
will be enough to allow afternoon/evening convective development
along a shortwave, especially in eastern portions of the CWA. PoPs
remain in the forecast on Monday with high pressure to the
east/southeast and H5 low pressure just off the northwest Pacific
coast. Pattern remains in place on Tuesday and into early Wednesday,
keeping PoPs in the forecast mainly for eastern portions of the CWA.
High pressure builds into the region on Thursday and Friday with dry
weather expected both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR with patchy and
localized fog developing as skies remain mostly clear, winds
become light and variable, and temperature dewpoint spreads go to
nill by 09z. Between 09z-12z conditions will rapidly become IFR to
LIFR as low clouds and fog become more widespread. Fog and low
clouds are expected to diminish between 14Z-16Z as temperatures
increase for a rapid transition back to VFR by 16Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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