Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281918
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK


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