Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
144 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 144 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are a clear to
partly cloudy mix as a veil of mid/high clouds works SSE off the
central Rockies/northern Plains region. Temperatures are mainly in
the 20s...with a few locales around 30-32F. Winds are mainly light
from the SSW.

For today and on thru Friday night...dry conditions are expected for
the area as H5/H7 ridging remains in place for the western portion
of the country. Models carry a shortwave over the ridge
Friday/Friday night. As this system works thru the Plains
region...the CWA will see a cold front move thru the area.

With the strong ridging in place over the next 72 hours...the area
will see above normal daytime temps. Today the area will see temps
in the be replaced mostly by the 70s for Thursday and
Friday...tempered only by approaching cold front Friday from the NW
as the shortwave works off the central Rockies. For Thursday/
Friday...these numbers will be 25-30 degrees above normal. Records
are possible to be broken in some areas each day. Please refer to
the Climate section below for further info.

Overnight lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight and
Thursday night. By Friday night the passage of the cold front will
usher in another round of CAA that will allow for lows to drop to
around 30F.

Other than the wild temperatures swings the area will see over the
next 72 hours...the only other wx concern will be the strong winds
over the area on Friday/Friday evening on the backside of the
exiting cold front. Gusts 30-35 mph are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Amplified ridge centered over the Rockies will dominate through
the weekend. No precipitation is expected. There will be a frontal
passage on Friday associated with a shortwave trough riding down
the ridge into the plains. It will potentially bring a period of
gusty north winds. Models differ on the timing of the front, which
may impact temperatures as well as when the stronger winds will
occur. Temperatures will only cool down slightly on Saturday
behind the front, quickly rebounding on Sunday to above normal as
the ridge rebuilds. Ridge axis will get shunted eastward early
next week as a stronger shortwave trough enters the northern
Rockies. It will bring cooler temperatures by Tuesday, but still
near normal for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1049 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions will
prevail at the McCook and Goodland terminals. Wind directions will
shift quickly throughout the next 24 hours.


Issued at 144 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday 11/23...and
Friday 11/24:

                      Thursday               Friday

Goodland KS          72F in 1925           82F in 1910

McCook NE            72F in 2005           72F in 1995

Burlington CO        72F in 1925           75F in 2012

Hill City KS         72F in 2005           73F in 1923

Colby KS             84F in 1998           75F in 1915

Tribune KS           82F in 1998           76F in 1942

Yuma CO              76F in 2002           73F in 1990




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