Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1057 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southerly return flow will strengthen late this afternoon and
evening as a lee trough deepens in advance of a shortwave trough
lifting northeast from the Desert SW to the 4-corners region. A
southerly breeze will persist overnight in assoc/w a relatively
tight MSLP gradient on the eastern periphery of the lee trough
in western KS. Expect highs this afternoon in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. With southerly flow /warm advection/ overnight, expect
lows Fri morning to be warmer than previous days, ranging from
the mid 40s in eastern CO (where the MSLP gradient will be weaker)
to mid/upper 50s east of Hwy 83 (where the MSLP gradient will
remain tight).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Friday the highs will continue to be warmer as warm air advection
continues.  During the late morning south winds will increase as
stronger low level winds mix down to the ground.  The strongest
winds will be east of the Kansas/Colorado border.

Friday evening the winds will gradually decline as the surface
pressure gradient weakens some ahead of the approaching pre-frontal

Saturday morning the cold front will move through the forecast area.
Behind the front winds will turn to the northwest, increasing after
sunrise.  The strongest winds will be during the late morning.
During the afternoon the surface pressure gradient and low level
winds decline.

The upper level trough will move through during the day. Ahead of
the trough models have been showing a slim chance for rainfall.
However latest data shows a dry environment despite the strong lift.
As a result am expecting a dry day behind the front.

Saturday night the winds will quickly decline as the surface
pressure gradient continues to weaken.  Due to the cooler air mass
in place lows will be cooler than what the forecast area has had for
the past few days.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail on Sunday as a weak H5 shortwave
ridge moves from west to east across the region. Due to the
progressive nature of the pattern, this ridge will not linger over
the region for long and is expected to quickly disintegrate as it
moves eastward. A relatively deep trough will traverse the northern
Plains as we head into Monday, bringing another cold front southward
and into the central Plains. Lack of antecedent moisture advection
will very likely make this a dry frontal passage late Monday night
or early Tuesday morning.

The post-frontal pattern could potentially create breezy conditions
through the day on Tuesday, thus we may need to further increase the
winds in future updates. Otherwise, look for near seasonal
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with dry weather prevailing.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Southerly winds
will increase from 10-15 knots this morning to 20 knots with
gusts up to 25-30 knots by late afternoon and early evening
(21-00Z), and remain breezy overnight. Southerly winds will
strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots by the end of the
TAF period (18Z Fri). Southerly wind gusts as high as 40-45 knots
cannot be ruled out late Friday afternoon and evening, primarily
east of Highway 83.




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