Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300842
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
RESULTING IN FOG/STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER WEST THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...FOG/STRATUS STILL NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT TAF SITES ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEAR KMCK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LEE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO DEEPENS...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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