Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 092100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

Main forecast concerns will be fog coverage through tomorrow morning
and high temperatures tomorrow. Fast west to northwest flow aloft
continues across the area. At the surface, arctic high pressure has
pushed off to the east as a strengthening lee trough has developed
to our west. This has tightened the pressure gradient allowing
southerly winds to increase low level moisture over the western
portion of the area, especially over the snow field.

Models having a little difficulty in the handling of the low level
moisture and cloud fields today. The Nam tends to be overdone and
the Gfs is too dry and does not have enough cloud cover. The Sref
seems to have the best handle. High resolution guidance, including
the Nam, brings in stratus once again tonight with the main question
of how much if any fog.

The Nam does have a bad habit of overdoing fog in this scenario. It
did get the stratus right from yesterday. However because of the
increase of low level moisture already in the west and the other
high resolution guidance showing fog developing during the night in
the same place as the current higher dewpoints, although some models
develop the fog faster than others, believe some mention of fog is
warranted. Even though the models differ on timing of fog
development they do agree on the area. So was confident enough to
add patchy fog, freezing due to much below 32 degree temperatures,
for along and east of the Colorado border from late this evening
into tomorrow morning.

The next question will be how fast does the cloud cover decrease.
Some cloud cover does hang on into the afternoon the east and
northeast portions of the area. At this time went with a blend with
the warmest temperatures along and west of the Colorado border and
the coolest in the far northern and eastern sections. However am
uncertain on this.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

The main concern for next week continues to be the potential for
another arctic air mass to move into the Central High Plains.

Monday and Tuesday...On Monday, highs warm to the mid 40s with
return flow ahead of the cold front. Arctic air filters into the
region overnight Monday.Lows Monday night are forecasted to be in
the mid teens across much of the region. For Tuesday, highs are
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 20s under mostly cloudy skies
and lows in the single digits. There will be a slight chance of
snow mainly for counties north of I-70 during the evening and
overnight hours on Tuesday as well. Best chance of seeing snow
will be in in our northwest counties of Yuma CO, Cheyenne KS, and
Dundy NE. Little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

Wednesday and Thursday... For Wednesday, highs are forecasted to
be in the mid to upper 20s through most of the region. A slight
chance of some lingering light snow or flurries is possible for
the same previously mentioned northwest counties. Wednesday night
lows are forecasted to be around 10 for much of the area. For
Thursday, GFS model soundings are showing some decent low level
moisture across the area, but will choose to keep just a slight
chance of snow/flurries for southeastern portions of our CWA until
models come into better agreement. Thursday`s highs look to be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Keep in mind... There has been a colder trend to guidance the past
couple of days for the extended period and would not be surprised
if this trend continued. Wind chills may become an issue starting
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected during the early morning
hours. Southerly winds will be near 16 knots with gusts around 25
knots through 21z. Around 21z the winds should decrease and quit
gusting. Early in the evening the winds will become light and
variable then shift to southerly again at 5 to 10 knots. Around
10z mvfr conditions are expected and will last until 16z when
conditions become vfr again.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected until late in the period.
Around 10z conditions will become mvfr and last through the end of
the period.




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