Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281723
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION AND CANCELLATION OF
LAST NIGHTS FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY. A FREEZE OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT OVER SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THOSE THAT A FREEZE
WATCH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FREEZE WATCH AND PORTIONS OF
THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES THAT EXPERIENCED 28
DEGREES OR LESS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A BAND OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WERE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT AN 850M RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR
MASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  DURING THE NIGHT
FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AT THIS
TIME IN CASE THOSE COUNTIES HAVE A HARD FREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ENDING THEIR GROWING SEASON.  ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
NORTON...RED WILLOW AND DECATUR COUNTIES WHERE THE VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S.  FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE THE ADVISORY AND WATCH WITH THE
SAME START/END TIMES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEAR A HARD
FREEZE UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THAT.  THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO PREVENT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
GROUND DUE TO THE INVERSION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WHICH WILL LEAD TO FROST DEVELOPING.

THURSDAY NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.  DUE TO AN
INVERSION JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FULL STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS BUT
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECLINE AT THE SAME TIME...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS
TO NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.  DURING THE NIGHT A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.  DEW POINTS AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL KEEP
LOWS FROM FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S.  HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE
FROST DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
WHILE AT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CREATE A 10-11MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TYPICALLY CREATES BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL INCREASE
SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
GFS/ECWMF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3C (5-6F) COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHICH WOULD NOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THANKS IN PART
TO WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
PERSIST. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND MAYBE SOME
FOG DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TOWARD 90
PERCENT.

SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE/WESTERN SLOPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ENERGY LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG WINDS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS (AS WELL
AS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS) ARE NOW KEEPING LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHING SFC LOW INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA INCREASES TO 13-14MB
WITH 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50+ KTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE WINDY
CATEGORY. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 6C (10F) COMPARED
TO FRIDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR HILL CITY TO AROUND
70 FROM BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND TRIBUNE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOWS MILD AGAIN FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE
40S WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DECREASING LATE AS FRONT APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN DURING
THE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S...COLDEST IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE HILL CITY AND NORTON AREAS DURING THE DAY WHERE SOME BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT EXISTS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST MODEL DATA SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MAINLY TO
DELAY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL 18Z-00Z AND CONTINUE THEM DURING THE
NIGHT.

MONDAY...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-
10C ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD
AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ001-013-015-016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99/JTL
AVIATION...FS



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