Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE CWA STILL REMAINS IN BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST AND SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST...CREATING TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES GIVING THE AREA WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST LIKE THE AREA HAD LAST NIGHT. LOOKING FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE A NICE COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO MID 50S WEST UP TO NEAR 60F IN EASTERN ZONES.
THE TRI STATE REGION WILL ALSO SEE WIND GUSTS REMAINING AFT 00Z
MONDAY...BUT DROP OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER...CLOSEST TO 03Z
MONDAY(900 PM MDT) AND REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.

ON MONDAY...CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET DURING THE MORNING WILL
GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A GREAT START TO THE DAY AS SEEN OVER
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE LAST IN SERIES OF GREAT
SETUPS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...AS A BROAD LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SET TO TREK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER FROM
OUTER BAND OF SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUT THE AREA INTO SITUATION
SEEING EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MODELS DO BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP WEST BY
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
WILL STAY OVER WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY DUE TO N-S ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT
OF SYSTEM...BUT SHIFT MORE EAST DURING AFTERNOON WITH MOVEMENT OF
PARENT LOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...PROMPTING MENTION OF INCREASING WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 40-45MPH RANGE. WITH THIS JET COMES ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTION CHANCE FOR SEVERE TRW...ENHANCED BY CWA BEING PUT IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LOOKING FOR
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN ZONES...WITH BULK OF ACTION
TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WITH THESE STORMS COMES THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ENHANCED BY
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/HIGH PWAT VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN TIME PERIOD OF INTEREST WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY
EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA AS A BAND OF STRONG LIFT...IN
RESPONSE TO A BAND OF 700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW...CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  MEAN STORM MOTION
WILL BE NORTH AT AROUND 45 MPH.  WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT
ALSO ORIENTATED NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT TRAINING STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.  EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO ARC TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES EAST DUE TO
THE LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING BROKEN AS IT ARCS AWAY FROM
THE PARENT LOW.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

REGARDING THREATS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE BEST 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE WEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 30-40KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS.
CAPE PROFILES IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.  EXPECT LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 25 BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING AT ROUGHLY 45 DEGREE ANGLE TO THE BAND OF
LIFT A SQUALL LINE IS VERY LIKELY TO DEVELOP.  DUE TO A STRONG 700-
850MB JET OF UP TO 50KTS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY LIKELY
IF THESE MID LEVEL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE.  LOOKING AT THE TORNADO
ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 LOOK TO HAVE
THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADO DEVELOP SINCE THIS PART OF THE AREA
TYPICALLY NEEDS CAPE IN ORDER FOR TORNADOES TO FORM. THERE MAY BE
A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WITH BRIEF
TORNADOES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS AS WELL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE WEST
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA DUE TO STORM TRAINING IN THE EVENING. AM
THINKING THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST AND THE
INVERSION HAS YET TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT THE CAPE PROFILES BECOME
NARROWER SUGGESTING MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TUESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL LIFT PRIOR TO THE DRY
AIR MOVING THROUGH.  OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS SATURATE ABOVE 700MB SO AN ISOLATED
STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE COMBINED THE TWO ROUNDS EARLIER ADVERTISED
INTO ONE ROUND MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  NOT
MUCH CAPE TO WORK WITH BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED AND THETA-E
LAPSE DO SHOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST TO EAST.  FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO A
COUPLE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPRAISES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR GLD AFTER
21Z WITH PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. HAVE BROUGHT IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 02Z AT MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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