000
FXUS63 KGLD 141736
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ISSUED UPDATE MAINLY FOR RISING TEMPS AND LOWERING RH. CURRENT
TEMPS ARE ABOUT THREE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
POINT...SO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. ALSO
USED A DIURNAL CURVE DERIVED FROM YESTERDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
WORKING WELL SO FAR. FIRE WX WARNING APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOW RH
ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS REMAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LIMITED CAPE AND LITTLE MOISTURE
BELOW 600MB MEANS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FIRE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND THEN FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP IMPROVES SOME THIS EVENING AS DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF AFTER 03Z SO WILL REDUCE THUNDER TO ISOLATED
FOR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO POPS WILL BE NIL. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN EXITING THURSDAY EVENING.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 90S TODAY. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AT HLC AND MCK ARE VERY MILD WITH READINGS NEAR 65
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
90S. COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE FOUND WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FA
HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL WIND WITH SUSTAINED OR GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL CRITICAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL. CONSEQUENTLY WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WICHITA..GREELEY..LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES IN KANSAS (SEE DETAILS
BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...

500 MB ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
WEAKEN AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS HAS NUMEROUS
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN UL TROUGH WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH COMPARED TO ECMWF.  VORTICITY VALUES DIFFER
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT PVA WILL BE PRESENT
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AT 500 MB. JET AT 500 MB FOR THE AREA WILL
BE GENERALLY CALM. 700 AND 850 MB JETS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS WILL BE
PRESENT IN FRONT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR A ZONAL PATTERN FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  UL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
WEST TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...

ECMWF INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHILE GFS SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  THETA E VALUES RANGE
FROM 340 TO 345 K, AND SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500. DRY LINE WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN PROVIDING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE
REGION.  LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE 70S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT MENTION OF VCTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER EITHER AIR FIELD THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO A LACK OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT 10-12KFT AGL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ028-029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...JJM