Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECMWF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS HAS SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY A FEW UPSTREAM REPORTS OF VIS IN THE 4-6SM SO FAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL MIXED DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KT AND BL WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT THEN VIS BELOW
3SM WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY. IF WINDS WERE TO SOMEHOW BECOME CALM THEN
VIS COULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
THIS ALONG BETTER MOISTURE AXIS IN THE WEST.

I DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR/LIFR VIS AT KGLD AND KEPT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS. I HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KMCK WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHTER WINDS STILL CONCERNS ME...SO FOR NOW I KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE AFTER 10Z. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD STILL OCCUR AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY MIDDAY...WITH VFR THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR



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