Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
233 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 951 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Updated for expected areas of precipitation for the remainder of
the night and into tomorrow afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...a mix of psunny to
msunny skies as the region lies west of a warm front currently over
the central portion of Kansas. Temps are ranging in the lower to mid
70s w/ dewpts ranging from the 45f to 50f west to the lower to mid
60s east due to the proximity to a warm front. To our west...a slow
moving upper low over the 4-corners region of the country will make
its way towards the Tri State region overnight.

Do expect areal coverage of trw to increase as the afternoon/evening
hours progress...which will be in tandem to the approach of the
upper low to our southwest. Strong shear...current sb cape values
approaching 1500-3000 j/kg especially in locales closest to the warm
front...could produce severe storms with tornadoes. The area could
also see 1-2" hail...winds 60-70mph or higher with any storms.
Training of thunderstorms could also bring heavy rainfall and
potential flooding to some areas.

The combination of these these factors has put the area into mainly
an enhanced to moderate risk for severe wx...which has resulted in a
tornado watch for the cwa until 01z-03z.

Going into Friday with the upper low will begin to move over the
cwa...model dynamics for severe wx will shift east of the
cwa...but do expect trw/rw thru the day due to the slow mvmnt of
the system.

For temps...overnight lows tonight and daytime highs Friday will be
highly dependent on areal coverage of clouds/precip over the area.
Looking for lows to range in the lower to mid 50s and highs Friday
to range from the mid 60s west to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 231 AM MDT Fri May
27 2016

The extended period will continue to see an unsettling pattern at
least through Thursday. A longwave trough, will develop embedded
lows, as it moves out of the Pacific Northwest, towards the east,
and deepens when it crosses over the High Plains during the
middle of the week. This will cause a series shortwaves to pass over
the Tri- State area and producing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. It will also bring cooler air to the region
resulting in the afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid 70s
by the end of the week.

During the latter part of the week, a longwave ridge will build over
the Rockies and move towards the east, as the longwave trough
moves out of the plains. As a result, expect precipitation chances
to decrease and temperatures to increase heading into next

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

A brief clearing will occur around 06Z tonight before the lower
clouds sweep back across the area as the surface trough moves east
and the upper low center tracks into eastern Colorado. Therefore,
while conditions start out VFR, expect conditions to deteriorate
to MVFR after 09Z and occasionally IFR between 11Z-14Z mainly due
to ceilings with some lower of visibility due to fog. Conditions
will return to MVFR between 16-18Z with lower ceilings diminishing
and conditions becoming VFR by 00Z Friday evening.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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