Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. VERY COMPLICATED
WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND THEN SNOW FROM EAST TO WEST. VISIBILITY DROPPED TO A
QUARTER MILE AT KGLD WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. AM EXPECTING THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT EITHER DUE TO VERY LOW CEILING OR LOW
VISIBILITY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT AFTER THIS MAIN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MOVES
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL


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