Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 302318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...the area is looking at
mainly sunny skies w/ only extreme NE portions of the region still
seeing lingering mid clouds pinwheel thru. These clouds are not
inhibiting daytime highs at all as locales are currently seeing
mostly lower to mid 40s...w/ NW Yuma County showing upper 30s. Wind
gusts continue to remain strong with many seeing a 30-40 mph range.

Going into tonight and on thru Thursday...the upper low associated
with the cloud cover that affected the CWA thru now...will continue
to shift eastward further into the Great Lakes region. Downslope
westerly flow works into the area as region sits on a brief zonal
pattern ahead of next trough coming into the west. This system
pushes into the Rockies into western zones some
increased cloud cover by the end of the day. Temps as a result will
be above normal for many locales with highs ranging in the lower to
mid 40s. Decreasing winds overnight with clear skies will drop
overnight lows into the mid to upper teens...on a decent radiational
cooling night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Increasing temperatures are anticipated through the weekend during
this long term period before the first arctic front of the season
impacts the High Plains next week. The area will have a few
opportunities for precipitation in this period. However, differences
in guidance have caused confidence to be low at this time.

Dry weather continues into Thursday night across the region as the
upper low in eastern Canada moves further away from the CONUS.
Southwesterly flow aloft returns Friday, causing cloud cover to
increase as a trough develops over the southwestern portion of the
country. The southern end of the trough deepens into a closed low
and slows down over Baja California while the northern portion
pushes towards the northern and central Plains. It appears that a
disturbance wraps around the base of this northern trough as it
nears the High Plains Friday night, bringing chances of light snow
to the forecast for locations south of Interstate 70. We are on the
northern edge of this area of precipitation, with the better
moisture to our south, so will have to monitor later guidance to see
if this ends up trending south of the region.

On Saturday, the closed low pushes further into Mexico while the
northern trough quickly moves east of the region. Subsident
northwesterly flow aloft returns for the weekend, clearing skies.
Dry conditions prevail and temperatures rise through Monday.

Southwesterly flow develops on Monday, when the region is currently
anticipated to see the warmest temperatures of the period. As the
low over Mexico kicks north Monday night, a large upper trough digs
into the Rockies and a cold front traverses the High Plains. These
systems generate chances for light snow, entering the area from the
north overnight.

Precipitation chances increase midweek, with the large upper trough
making its way east towards the Plains. Depending on temperatures,
chances for rain, snow, or a mix of the two are forecast. With this
active pattern, models have differences that need to be resolved
before confidence in timing, location, and amounts can improve.

High temperatures start out the period in the mid 30s to mid 40s on
Friday, steadily increasing into the mid 40s to low 50s by Monday.
The region then comes under a polar air mass and highs decrease into
the 30s on Tuesday and the 20s to low 30s on Wednesday. Low
temperatures generally stay in the teens and 20s, with the coldest
night being Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 416 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Westerly flow aloft will result in mostly clear skies and light




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