Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Main forecast issue will be onset of thunderstorms and associated
hazards Saturday afternoon. Winds will become light and variable
with the winds staying the lightest in the eastern portion of the
area the longest. With lower dewpoints, no cloud cover, and recent
biases, undercut guidance a little in the eastern portion of the

Lee trough/dryline develops or moves to near the Colorado border
during the mid and late afternoon hours. Shortwave trough will move
over the top of this surface feature at the same time. So expect
thunderstorms to develop in this area. However, guidance over all
and especially the high resolution guidance differs on where
initiation will be with convective feedback issues causing problems
with the Nam. So confined the pops mainly to the western half to two

Most of the area is in a marginal risk. Severe parameters/indices
would support this and even expand it through most of the area. Also
precipitable water values increase into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. So
locally heavy rainfall definitely be a threat. For high temperatures
current guidance supports warming the maxes to near what the
previous forecast had so adjusted accordingly.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Monday (Solar Eclipse Day): Since this is Day 4 of the extended
period, remember that sky cover forecasts this far out are prone to
large errors. As of this forecast shift, our CWA looks to have
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies during the eclipse. Slight
chance of storms in the afternoon over eastern portions of the area.
Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Monday Night-Wednesday: Cold front should push through the area
during this period. Global models differ on timing though. ECMWF is
quicker and stronger with the front bringing it through the area
overnight Monday. GFS is a bit slower and weaker with the front,
sliding it through Tuesday night. Leaned a bit towards the GFS in
temps in the forecast. As for precip, will be largely dependent on
the arrival/position of the front. Only rain free period right now
looks to be during the day Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday: Again, model disagreement during this period leads
to low confidence in the forecast. ECMWF shows upper level ridging
dominating our area with dry conditions persisting. GFS and CMC show
a wetter solution with a series of shortwaves coming across the
area, with high amounts of QPF over the southern third of the CWA.
Forecast reflects the GFS/CMC solution, but this will almost
certainly change as models come into better agreement as we get into
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start
out near 10 knots from the north then shift to the northeast
during the afternoon and decrease by about 5 knots. During the
night the winds will become light and variable before shifting
the south at near 8 knots.




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