Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140933
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
333 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



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