Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 080942
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Temperatures ahead of incoming cloud cover have fallen into the
teens over the east half of the forecast area, east of the
flurries and clouds. Warm air advection later this evening will
cause temperatures to warm through the rest of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Main issues will be high winds and fire weather conditions for
Friday. For tonight...Left front quadrant will be affecting the
northwest portion of the area at the beginning of the period and
will be just east of the area by the end of the night. Mid level
lift is not as strong with not the best theta-e lapse rates. This
has been what the model output has been showing the last few days.
Model output has pulled back on the measurable precipitation. As
a result have pulled all measurable mention of precipitation and
inserted scattered flurries for the night.

For Friday...For discussion on fire weather, refer to that section
below. By later in the morning/early in the afternoon, the area
is in the right front quadrant of the above mentioned jet.
Shortwave will have moved through by late in the morning with
subsidence and clearing kicking in by mid to late morning with the
strongest downward motion over eastern Colorado. Also 700 mb
winds increase into the 45 to 55 knot range with the strongest
winds in eastern Colorado and a little further east into extreme
southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. The best low level
lapse rates reside along and especially west of the Colorado
border.

Best parameters to mix down 60 mph plus winds reside over eastern
Colorado with the Bufkit soundings for the Nam and Gfs mixing
down these winds for the last two days. So confidence was high
enough to hoist a high wind warning for eastern Colorado. However,
there is some uncertainty as to how far these parameters will
move east of the Colorado border. The certainty was not there is
issue a warning but felt good enough about issuing a watch for the
next row of counties to the east of the Colorado border.

Area continues to see experience dry conditions. With the winds that
occurred on Monday, those areas that had the strongest winds did
experience some minor reductions in visibility from blowing dust.
So for the high wind warning and watch area, I inserted patchy
blowing dust from late in the morning through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Monday, a strong mid to upper level jet will be moving into the
central high plains, bringing us a round of gusty winds and a drop
in max temps for the day. Afterward, Tuesday into Wednesday we
will see a slight warming and relaxed winds as the gradient aloft
also relaxes. Wednesday afternoon, we could see a disturbance
moving into the area as the ridge weakens and brings a disturbance
over the area. Models are in disagreement on when the timing and
extent of impacts from this disturbance, but should have a better
grasp in the next day or two. Regardless, after the disturbance
passes we will see more seasonably average temperatures through
Friday. No chance of precipitation in the extended at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1014 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds are expected to
quickly increase around 15z, reaching a peak around 19z, then
quickly declining around 23z. Confidence is beginning to wane
regarding wind gusts reaching 50 kts for KGLD. The stronger winds
will be west of KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning
     through this afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning through
     this afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST this morning through this
     afternoon for NEZ079.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM MST this morning through this
     afternoon for NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JTL



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