Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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612
FXUS63 KGLD 181738
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
NOW OVERHEAD WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST UNDER PERIODS OF
CLOUD COVER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST TODAY...THE STAGE IS SET FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND A SHIFT IN WINDS ALOFT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTHEAST...GULF MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN PULLED NORTH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE RAPID/SIGNIFICANT WITH A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS APPROACH/EXCEED TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD
FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NOT ONLY IS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRESENT BUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT OVER
EAST COLORADO...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WANES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE/HEAVY AT TIMES AS A RESULT
OF THE RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. OVERALL...A PRECIPITATION
EVENT SEEMS LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM TO BE COVERED WITH THIS ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION EVENT...TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO POTENTIALLY
30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE COOLED ONCE AGAIN FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED A SIMILAR TREND. FORECAST NOW ADVERTISES
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF A
NORTON KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS KANSAS LINE. CURRENTLY DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW AS THERE MAY BE A WARM LAYER ALOFT SO A COLD RAIN
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME
FROST CONCERNS BUT DID NOT WANT TO WIDELY ADVERTISE THAT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND PRECIPITATION COMPLICATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THURSDAY. THERE IS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE
INITIATING AT 12Z SATURDAY AROUND THE 4 CORNER STATES MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND 18Z. THE ECMWF SHOWS CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 200
J/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT 1000 J/KG SUNDAY. THE GFS CAPE VALUES
ARE HIGHER AT 1400 J/KG FRIDAY...1800 J/KG SATURDAY AND 1000 J/KG
SUNDAY. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 60 KTS IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHEAR WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF SHOWS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING WHILE THE GFS IS
MOVING FASTER BY A FEW HOURS. YET THE GFS HANDLES THE MOISTURE BETTER.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A BETTER HANDLE ON POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW RAIN
CHANCES PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KMCK WILL END BY 20Z...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH 06Z. MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE
OVER THE SITES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AND RAIN BEGINNING. BY
12Z...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT KGLD WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS AT KMCK. BY 15Z BOTH SITES WILL BE IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TIPTON
AVIATION...MENTZER



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